年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Seychelles_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_61页_2mb

报告摘要

Seychelles 2017 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Summary

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2017 Article IV Consultation and the sixth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with Seychelles on June 2, 2017. The review enabled a disbursement of SDR 1.635 million (approximately US$2.3 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 11.445 million (about US$15.8 million). The arrangement, approved in June 2014, aimed to support debt reduction, external sustainability, and inclusive growth.

Key Economic Performance

Macroeconomic performance remained strong in 2016, with economic growth of 4.5% driven by increased tourist arrivals, stronger fishing output, and expanding private sector credit.
Inflation was negative throughout early 2017, supported by low commodity prices and a stable exchange rate.
Gross international reserves reached 4 months of prospective imports by end-2016.
Primary fiscal surplus in 2016 reached 3.4% of GDP, exceeding the target by 0.4%.
Public debt-to-GDP ratio had been reduced to 68% by end-2016, with a target to bring it below 50% by 2020.

Outlook and Risks

The growth outlook for 2017 remains positive, but the economy is vulnerable to external shocks, including:
- Weakness in key tourism markets.
- Withdrawal of correspondent banking relations (CBRs) by global banks.
- Long-term climate change impacts.
Downside risks are mainly from the external sector.
Domestic risks include potential fiscal slippage in 2018 and beyond.

Executive Board Recommendations

Continue commitment to prudent policies and structural reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
Achieve the medium-term debt reduction target by implementing permanent fiscal measures in 2018.
Create further fiscal space to accommodate climate change resilience investments.
Maintain a flexible exchange rate and minimize central bank intervention to preserve reserve coverage.
Continue efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and offshore financial sector regulations.
Promote inclusive growth by:
- Improving the business environment.
- Reducing cross-subsidization in electricity prices.
- Enhancing public-private partnerships in infrastructure.
- Accelerating investment in education.

Structural Reforms

Public financial management (PFM) has improved, with new action plans addressing weaknesses.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have shown improved financial performance.
Macroprudential surveillance has been strengthened.
Transparency in the offshore financial sector has advanced, but regulatory efforts need to be strengthened in light of global trends toward CBR withdrawal.

Key Documents and Data

Staff Report: Completed on May 18, 2017, following discussions from April 4, 2017.
Informational Annex and Statement by the Executive Director were also released.
Data provision is adequate, but improvements in national account and price statistics are needed.

Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (2014-2022)

Indicator	2014 Est.	2015 Est.	2016 Proj.	2017 Proj.	2018 Proj.	2019 Proj.	2020 Proj.	2021 Proj.	2022 Proj.
Nominal GDP (millions of Seychelles rupees)	17,119	18,336	19,033	20,022	21,259	22,539	23,969	25,498	27,123
Real GDP	4.5	5.0	4.5	4.1	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
CPI (annual average)	1.4	4.0	-1.0	1.8	2.7	2.7	3.0	3.0	3.0
CPI (end-of-period)	0.5	3.2	-0.2	2.8	2.3	3.0	3.1	3.0	3.0
GDP deflator average	2.3	2.0	-0.7	1.1	2.7	2.7	3.0	3.0	3.0
Total external debt outstanding (US$ millions)	1,588	1,361	1,393	1,485	1,544	1,591	1,657	1,725	1,790
External debt as % of GDP	118.2	98.8	97.5	101.2	99.8	97.2	95.5	94.4	93.5
Months of imports, c.i.f.	3.9	4.3	4.0	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.3	3.3

Additional Context

Seychelles was designated a high-income economy by the World Bank, being the only high-income country in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Social concerns emerged in 2016, with 39% of the population living below the poverty line, according to the Household Budget Survey (HBS).
The 2016 State of the Nation Address (SONA) introduced permanent fiscal commitments of 3% of GDP, leading to a postponement of the debt reduction target to 2020.
The opposition alliance gained control of the National Assembly in September 2016, weakening the President's party.
President Michel stepped down in October 2016, transferring power to Vice President Faure.

Summary of Key Issues

Macroeconomic stability has been achieved, but external vulnerabilities persist.
Debt reduction remains a priority, with the target now set for 2020.
Climate change is a long-term risk requiring fiscal space and resilience investments.
Structural reforms are needed to improve the business environment, enhance PFM, and strengthen SOEs.
Monetary policy is appropriate, with a flexible exchange rate and minimal central bank intervention.
Financial sector reforms are ongoing, particularly in AML/CFT and offshore regulations.

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledged Seychelles' progress in achieving economic stability and external sustainability, but emphasized the need for continued reforms and prudent fiscal policies to address long-term risks, especially from climate change and external shocks. The sixth and final review under the EFF was completed, and the program is on track to conclude, with the next five years focused on meeting the debt target and promoting inclusive growth.