20250611-江海证券-轻工制造行业_英美烟草发布2025H1业绩前瞻_关注新品Glo_Hilo日本表现_3页_374kb

Jianghai Securities Industry Review Summary: Light Manufacturing

This report from Jianghai Securities provides an analysis of the light manufacturing industry, focusing on recent developments in electronic and heated-not-burn (HNB) tobacco products, particularly from British American Tobacco (BAT). The industry is rated "Hold" for stock recommendations, based on its performance relative to the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Index. Key points in the summary are extracted to ensure clarity and conciseness.

Analyst and Context

The report was prepared by Jianghai Securities Research Department, with Analyst Zhang Jing (certificate number S1410525010001), who has experience in equity research across various financial institutions. It is dated June 11, 2025, and covers topics like industry data, which shows relative and absolute returns mixed with the broader market. However, readers must note potential conflicts of interest as Jianghai Securities may have business ties to analyzed companies, so this report should not be the sole factor in investment decisions.

Key Findings from BA Tobacco's H1 2025 Performance

• Revenue and Profit Guidance: British American Tobacco's first-half 2025 performance exceeded initial estimates, driven by strong growth in the US combustible products market and oral modern nicotine products. Full-year revenue is expected to grow 1%–2%, with adjusted operating profit increasing 15%–25%. This improvement came despite overall retail decline; BAT secured value and volume share in key regions.
• Product Highlights:
  • The Velo product showed double-digit revenue growth, capturing more market share in modern oral nicotine segments (up 350–360 basis points to 29.7%).
  • GloHilo, a new HNB product, launched in Japan on June 9, 2025, using a "5-second heat-up" feature to enhance user experience. Early trials in Sendai are planned to assess performance before full national rollout.
  • Challenges remain in the e-cigarette sector, where Vuse faced a 15% revenue drop due to illegal market competition, but a new high-end model (Vuse Ultra) is expected to offset losses in the second half.
  • Glo product sales saw a slight decline in primary markets, but innovative launches like GloHilo in Serbia show promise for accelerated growth.

Investment Recommendations

Jianghai Securities recommends monitoring Japan's GloHilo sales after its June launch, as successful uptake could boost HNB sector growth globally. Key companies to watch include:

• Suppliers if HNB technology barriers (heating techniques, flavor blending) are overcome: Silmore International (Shenzhen Smok International, Hong Kong stock).
• Other HNB-related firms: China Tobacco Hong Kong, Winsome Inc. (joint ventures), and domestic players like Huabei Cigarette Capsules Co. and Shun Hao Share Co.
  The focus is on HNB's potential as a harm reduction alternative, which could expand globally given its superior control features and user-friendly design.

Key Risks

Investors should consider: underperformance in HNB promotion, increased competition leading to market fragmentation, or regulatory policy changes that could bottleneck growth or restrict access.

Timeframe and Duration

The recommendations are short-to-medium term, with specific attention to Q2 2025 developments, especially in Japan. Historical data shows mixed light manufacturing sector performance, tied to broader economic benchmarks.

This summary avoids relying solely on the report as investment advice, emphasizing independent decision-making and reference to the full disclaimer.