巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-二季度G10外汇路线图：现在进场，坐等获利-20190308-9页_1mb

报告摘要

FOCUS | GLOBAL - G10 FX Q2 Roadmap Summary

Core Content Overview

This report from BNP Paribas outlines the G10 FX market outlook for Q2 2019, focusing on the USD's structural bearish trend, the EUR's weaker outlook, and the potential for JPY and GBP to outperform. It also includes specific trade ideas and risk factors that may impact the outlook for various currency pairs.

Key Market Outlook

USD Outlook

Structural Bearish: The USD is expected to continue its depreciation trend over the next two years.
Q1 Recovery: A carry-driven recovery in Q1 may persist into Q2.
Long-Term Depreciation: The USD is overvalued relative to long-term fair value, and we anticipate a broad-based depreciation in H2 2019.
Risks: The USD's upside risks include a material macroeconomic surprise that could prompt further Fed hikes, while downside risks include a sharp slowdown in US growth, which may lead to aggressive USD talk-down by the administration, and a global recession scenario.

EUR Outlook

Structural Bearish: The EUR is viewed as structurally bearish, with further growth below trend possibly prompting ECB easing.
EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD is expected to decline from 1.25 to 1.20 in 2019 and continue to weaken in 2020.
US Auto Tariff Risk: The threat of US auto tariffs on the EUR is likely to cap EUR gains.

JPY Outlook

Medium-Term Bulls: JPY is expected to appreciate in H2 2019, with USDJPY declining significantly.
JPY Performance: JPY underperformed in Q1 but is forecasted to rise in the second half of the year.

GBP Outlook

Base Case Bullish: GBP is seen as a medium-term bullish trade, though risks are heavily skewed to the downside.
GBPUSD Forecast: GBPUSD is expected to rise from 1.32 to 1.58 in 2019, with a peak likely near 1.45.
GBPCHF Strategy: GBPCHF is favored due to potential SNB intervention, creating an asymmetric risk-reward.

Trade Ideas

1. Long USDCHF

Reason: Highest vol-adjusted carry in G10, with no structural overvaluation.
Strategy: Use 3y ATMS/ATMF call spreads for a clean carry trade.
Market Conditions: Intermediate expiries appear cheap due to elevated 10y/3y and compressed 3y/1y calendars.

2. Short EURJPY

Reason: Eurozone growth below trend may prompt ECB easing, pushing down EUR front-end yields and weakening EURJPY.
Macro View: US auto-tariff threat and risk sentiment are likely to weigh on the EUR and increase demand for safe-haven JPY.

3. Fade Dips in GBP

Reason: GBP is expected to finish 2019 well above current levels, so we will look to accumulate long GBP exposure on dips.
Strategy: Favor GBPCHF due to potential SNB intervention.

4. Accumulate JPY Longs

Reason: JPY has underperformed in Q1 and is expected to appreciate in H2.
Strategy: Look to accumulate JPY longs as global risk sentiment begins to weaken.

5. USDJPY Lower, AUDUSD Higher Dual Digitals

Reason: These dual digitals offer an attractive way to position for the USD's structural downtrend.
Strategy: Favor this trade as AUD and JPY are expected to move in opposite directions relative to the USD.

6. Trade the Range in USDCAD

Reason: USDCAD is closely correlated to front-end yield spreads and is expected to remain in a range around 1.30.
Strategy: Fade extremes in the range.

Key Forecasts (Table 1)

Currency Pair	2019 Forecast	2020 Forecast
EURUSD	→1.15, →1.17, ↓1.18, ↓1.20	↓1.20, ↓1.21, ↓1.23, ↓1.25
USDJPY	→110, →108, →105, →100	→97, →95, →92, →90
USDCAD	→1.35, →1.33, →1.33, →1.32	→1.32, →1.30, →1.30, →1.29
AUDUSD	→0.71, →0.72, →0.74, ↓0.76	↓0.77, ↓0.79, →0.81, →0.81
EURGBP	↓0.85, ↓0.85, ↓0.84, ↓0.83	↓0.83, ↓0.83, ↓0.83, ↓0.83

Supporting Analysis

USD Overvaluation: The USD remains significantly overvalued versus the FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate).
Volatility and Carry: USDCHF offers the best vol-adjusted carry in the G10.
Global Risk Sentiment: A shift to more negative risk sentiment is expected to trigger JPY appreciation.
Front-End Yields: USDCAD is closely correlated to front-end yield spreads, indicating a stable relationship.

Important Disclosures

This document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
It may contain "Research" as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules, and is intended for certain professional clients and eligible counterparties.
The information is based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
No assurance is given that any transaction will be entered into on the terms indicated.
This document is not a prospectus, advertisement, or public offering and does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instrument.

展开完整摘要