美国农业部-美股-农业行业-牲畜、乳制品和家禽展望：COVID~19的破坏推动了2020年精选牛肉价值和价差的增长-20200716-29页_1mb

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets during the early months of 2020, particularly highlighting the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply, demand, and pricing dynamics. It includes forecasts and historical comparisons for beef, dairy, and poultry sectors, with a focus on price spreads, production volumes, import/export trends, and feed prices.

Beef Market Analysis

Key Trends

• Price Increases: Inflation-adjusted retail and wholesale beef values rose significantly in 2020, with retail values reaching 295.8 cents per pound and wholesale values at 249.1 cents per pound in May 2020.
• Record Highs: While these were not record highs compared to earlier decades, they marked notable increases from January 2020 levels.
• Production Forecast: Beef production for 2020 was raised to 26.9 billion pounds, up 260 million pounds from the previous month, due to heavier carcass weights and an increased slaughter pace.
• 2021 Outlook: Beef production is forecast to increase further to 27.7 billion pounds, with higher feeder cattle slaughter expected.

Cattle Prices

• Fed Steer Prices: Fed steer prices fell to $96.21 per cwt in May 2020, down from $103.82, due to higher supply and lower demand.
• Quarterly Forecasts: Third and fourth-quarter 2020 cattle prices were forecast to decrease by $4 and $3 respectively, while the 2021 forecast remained unchanged.

Imports and Exports

• Imports: May 2020 beef imports fell 9% to 269 million pounds, with significant declines from Australia and New Zealand (down 41% and 27%, respectively).
• Exports: May 2020 beef exports were 31% lower than a year earlier at 188 million pounds, with the largest declines to Mexico and Japan. Hong Kong was the only major destination with an increase in exports.

Dairy Market Analysis

Price Volatility

• Wholesale Prices: Cheddar cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices saw sharp increases in late May and early June, with Cheddar cheese reaching a new record of $2.5947 per pound.
• Spot Prices: CME spot prices for cheese and butter were also high, with Cheese at $2.7785 per pound and Butter at $1.7095 per pound in the week ending July 10.

Export Competitiveness

• NDM and Dry Whey: U.S. NDM and dry whey prices were competitive in foreign markets, particularly in Oceania and Western Europe.
• Cheese and Butter: U.S. domestic prices for cheese and butter were substantially higher than export prices, which may impact export competitiveness in the second half of 2020.

Supply and Demand Factors

• Milk Production: May 2020 milk production was 18.840 billion pounds, a 14 million-pound decline from April, the largest April-to-May drop on record.
• Culling Rates: Dairy operations reduced cow numbers due to low prices and logistical challenges during the pandemic.
• Domestic Use: Domestic use of dairy products rebounded in May, but remained below 2019 levels due to reduced foodservice demand and economic disruptions.

Forecasts

• Milk Production: 2020 milk production is forecast at 221.5 billion pounds, 1.1% higher than 2019, adjusted for leap year.
• Milk per Cow: Milk per cow is estimated at 23,635 pounds, a 105-pound decrease from the previous forecast.
• 2020 Export Forecasts: Raised to 9.1 billion pounds (milk-fat basis) and 45.8 billion pounds (skim-solids basis), due to increased production of dry skim milk products, butterfat products, lactose, and cheese.
• 2020 Import Forecasts: Raised to 7.0 billion pounds (milk-fat basis) due to higher butter imports, while skim-solids imports remain at 5.8 billion pounds.

Poultry and Egg Market Analysis

• Broiler Production: Forecast increased due to May data and hatchery trends, while price forecasts remained unchanged.
• Egg Production: Forecast decreased due to lower laying flocks and low lay rates.
• Egg Prices: Forecast decreased due to recent price movements, but third-quarter export forecasts were slightly increased due to attractive prices.
• Turkey Production: Revised down for both 2020 and 2021 due to low poult placements, and export forecasts were also reduced.

Feed Price Outlook

• Corn: Estimated at $3.60 per bushel for the 2019/20 marketing year, and $3.35 per bushel for 2020/21, a 15-cent increase from the previous month.
• Soybean Meal: Estimated at $300 per short ton for 2019/20, and $300 per short ton for 2020/21, a $10 increase from the previous forecast.
• Alfalfa Hay: May 2020 prices were $179 per short ton, down $2 from April and $25 from May 2019.

Key Takeaways

• Beef: Prices and production increased due to heavier carcass weights and recovery in slaughter capacity, though import demand dropped due to economic slowdowns and currency fluctuations.
• Dairy: Prices surged due to reduced domestic use, government purchases, and increased foodservice demand. Export competitiveness varied by product.
• Poultry/Eggs: Production and export forecasts were mixed, with turkey and egg production declining due to lower placements and lay rates.
• Feed Costs: Corn and soybean meal prices rose, impacting feedlot operations and cattle prices.

Conclusion

The 2020 livestock, dairy, and poultry markets were significantly affected by COVID-19 disruptions, leading to price volatility, shifts in supply and demand, and changes in import/export dynamics. While beef and dairy prices rose due to reduced domestic consumption and increased demand for processed products, poultry production faced challenges. Feed prices also increased, influencing cattle and livestock market trends. The outlook for 2021 shows increased production and stabilized prices for some sectors, but uncertainty remains due to ongoing economic and logistical impacts of the pandemic.