美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国牲畜、乳制品和家禽展望：2020年大多数红肉和家禽的出口预测将更高-20190617-27页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry market outlook for 2019 and 2020, including export and import trends, production forecasts, price changes, and the impact of trade policies and feed costs on the industry.

Main Points

Export Forecasts

• Red Meat and Poultry: U.S. exports are expected to increase by more than 4% in 2020.
  • Beef Exports: Forecast to rise by 2.7% due to reduced competition in Asian markets from Oceania's weather-related herd reduction.
  • Pork Exports: Projected to increase by over 7% in 2020 as Mexican demand is re-established after the removal of tariffs in mid-May 2019.
  • Broiler Exports: Expected to grow by 2.3% due to increased demand in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Turkey Exports: Anticipated to grow by 3%, supported by strong demand in Mexico.
  • Lamb and Mutton Exports: Likely to fall due to U.S. production trends.
  • Egg Exports: Forecast to decrease by 3% due to soft foreign demand.
  • Dairy Exports: Expected to grow by 3.3% as global demand increases.

Import Trends

• Beef Imports: Increased by 16% in April 2019 compared to the previous year, with major gains from Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, and Nicaragua.
• Cattle Imports: Rose by 29% in April 2019, with feeder cattle accounting for most of the increase.
• Dairy Imports: Strengthened in April 2019, especially for milk protein products, with imports on a skim-solids basis expected to rise in 2020.
• Pork Imports: Showed mixed trends, with declines in Mexico and Japan but increases in Canada and Australia.

Production Forecasts

• Beef Production: Forecasted at 27.2 billion pounds for 2019 and 27.4 billion pounds for 2020, slightly lower than previous months due to reduced fed cattle slaughter.
• Pork Production: Revised downward by 5 million pounds in 2019 and 40 million pounds in 2020 due to higher feed costs.
• Turkey Production: Reduced by 5 million pounds in 2019 and 40 million pounds in 2020 due to increased feed costs.
• Egg Production: Expected to decrease in 2020 due to tighter producer margins.
• Milk Production: Forecasted at 18.430 billion pounds in April 2019, up slightly from 2018, but the 2019 annual forecast is 218.2 billion pounds, 0.5 billion pounds lower than the previous forecast. 2020 milk production is forecast at 221.9 billion pounds, a reduction of 0.8 billion pounds from the last forecast.

Price Forecasts

• Beef Prices: Forecasted to decline throughout 2019, with the annual price expected at $117 per cwt, $1.50 lower than last month and just below 2018 levels. 2020 annual price is forecast at $119 per cwt.
• Feeder Steer Prices: Lowered by $3 to $142 per cwt in the second quarter of 2019, with further reductions in subsequent quarters.
• Dairy Prices:
  • Butter: Increased to $2.325 per pound in 2020.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM): Rose to $1.015 per pound in 2020.
  • Cheese: Forecasted at $1.64 per pound in 2019 and $1.725 per pound in 2020.
  • Dry Whey: Forecasted at $0.390 per pound in 2019 and $0.375 per pound in 2020.
  • Class III and IV Prices: Both are expected to rise in 2020, with Class III at $15.90 per cwt and Class IV at $16.85 per cwt.
  • All-Milk Price: Forecasted at $18.00 per cwt for 2019 and $18.90 per cwt for 2020.

Feed Prices

• Corn: Forecasted to increase to $3.80 per bushel for the 2019/20 marketing year, up from the previous forecast of $3.30.
• Soybean Meal: Expected to rise to $295 per short ton for 2019/20, up $5 from last month.
• Alfalfa Hay: Increased to $199 per short ton in April, $15 higher than March and $16 higher than April 2018.

Trade Policy Impact

• Mexican Tariffs: Removed in mid-May 2019, leading to upward revisions in U.S. pork export forecasts for both 2019 and 2020.
• China Tariffs: Continued to affect U.S. dairy exports, particularly lactose and casein products.
• Canada and Mexico Tariffs: Retaliatory measures were lifted in May 2019, positively impacting U.S. dairy and pork exports.

Key Information

• Beef Exports: Lagged behind year-ago levels in early 2019, but are expected to increase in 2020.
• Cattle Imports: Increased in April 2019, with a forecast of 2.045 million head for 2019 and 2.105 million head for 2020.
• Dairy Exports: Expected to grow by 3.3% in 2020, but weakened in April 2019.
• Pork Exports: Benefited from the removal of Mexican tariffs, leading to a significant increase in 2019 and 2020 forecasts.
• Poultry and Eggs: Broiler production increased in April 2019, but the 2020 forecast was lowered due to higher feed costs. Egg production and exports are forecast to decrease in 2020.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors are expected to experience mixed performance in 2019 and 2020, with export growth in beef, pork, and poultry, but declines in lamb and mutton, as well as egg exports. Domestic demand and trade policies, particularly the removal of Mexican tariffs on pork, are playing a key role in shaping these trends. Higher feed costs are expected to impact production and pricing in the coming year, with dairy and pork markets showing resilience despite challenges.