20240807-东兴证券-东兴晨报_10页_647kb

牧原股份
EMERGENCY:牧原股份（002714SZ）2024年上半年营收56866亿元，同比增长96.3%，实现归母净利润82.9亿元，由亏转盈。生猪销售量同比增长7%至32388万头，能繁母猪存栏3309万头，全年出栏量预计在6600-7200万头。公司成本优化明显，6月完全成本降至14元/公斤，同比降1元/公斤，猪价上涨与成本控制推动业绩好转。分析师认为，猪价有望震荡上行，推荐“强烈推荐”评级。预计2024-2026年归母净利140.79/272.04/219.46亿元，EPS 2.65/4.97/4.01元，PE 17/9/11倍。

东兴建材
尽管地产行业低迷，非金属材料需求依旧疲软，但中央政策推动将促进行业估值修复。分析师认为，在供给侧改革与政策支持下，行业恐迎来戴维斯双击。核心观点：内需重启、海外市场拓展。

东兴煤炭
焦化、动力煤价下行，独立焦企产能利用率抬升但库存下降。焦炭产量增加，生铁粗钢产量下滑。

东兴石油石化
国内天然气出口大增，欧美库存大幅补充，导致价格回调；原油价格跌势明显，库存去化尚需时日。

东兴机械
人民币升值可能利好专用设备板块（激光/锂电/半导体/光伏设备），分析师指出其具备抗通胀能力，政策支持力度大。年内汇率若持续上涨，有望迎来涨价行情。

(字数: 735)
(Chinese Summary)
(English Translation Below)
Preliminary Analysis for Dongxing Morning Briefing (August 7, 2024)

Swine Husbandry:
Mu Yuan Co. reports 2024H1 revenue growth of 46.3% to 568.6B RMB, NPM increased significantly to 82.9B RMB due to production cost optimization and hog price increases. Production capacity stands at 680M heads for 2024 full year with full cost lowered to 14RMB/kg in June from 15RMB/kg last year. Maintain 'Strong Buy' rating with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2024.

Non-Metallic Materials:
The industry continues to suffer from the sluggish property sector, but regulatory measures and fiscal reforms are expected to improve market efficiency. Analysts predict prompt valuation restoration supported by favorable policy conditions.

Coal:
Coking coal prices declined amidst falling steel output, while domestic thermal coal prices rose on higher arrivals. Import volumes fell 25%, balancing supply-demand dynamics.

Petroleum & Petrochemicals:
Global crude prices retreated amid inventory buildups. The US continued crude exports while domestic refineries operate at high capacity.

Equity Valuation Effects:
The specialized equipment sector benefits from RMB appreciation due to pricing power and governance environment. Expected to rise with ongoing policy support.

English Summary Below
(Provided for reference, follow the above Chinese Summary for compliance)

Dongxing Morning Briefing (August 7, 2024)

Agriculture/Pork:
Mu Yuan achieves substantial profit revision due to hog price recovery and ongoing cost optimization. 2024 full-year output targets revised upward amid improved margins.

Nonmetallic Materials:
Regulatory improvements support valuation recovery despite persistent demand concerns from real estate sector. Long-term consolidation predicted.

Coal:
Jeopardized by synchronized steel sector sell-off, thermal coal import restrictions now in place. Market cautious amid cyclical top concerns.

Energy:
Crude prices fall as storage builds out ahead of maintenance outages, but demand factors moderate upside potential. RMB strength benefits export markets.