20160316-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_14页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets on March 16-21, 2016. It includes key market indices, upcoming earnings reports, stock performance highlights, valuation metrics, and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Trends

• HSI (Hang Seng Index) closed at 20,288, with a -0.7% daily change and -7.4% YTD.
• HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) closed at 8,605, with a -0.9% daily change and -10.9% YTD.
• Shanghai Composite closed at 2,864, with a +0.2% daily change and -19.1% YTD.
• Shenzhen Composite closed at 1,729, with a -0.9% daily change and -25.1% YTD.
• The Hong Kong market saw a significant decline in turnover, with the HSI trading at HK$17.5bn and a -37.13% daily change.

Market Highlights

• The Closing meeting of 4th session of 12th CPPCC National Committee and Premier Li Keqiang's media meeting are scheduled for today, likely to influence market sentiment.
• China Unicom (762.HK) is scheduled to release its FY15 results today, with expected net profit ranging from RMB8.41 billion to RMB10.65 billion, indicating a potential 11.7% to 30.2% YoY decline.
• Sunny Optical (2382.HK) reported a 35% YoY increase in 2015 net profit, leading to a 5.1% price increase.
• Want Want China (151.HK) reported weak sales, with a 12.6% YoY decline in net profit and a 4.4% share price drop.

Today's Top Picks

• Vision Fame (1315): Target price HK$8.25, with a reason of share price rising above 10-day and 50-day moving averages.
• Prosten Tech (8026): Target price HK$0.365, with a reason of RSI rising above 50, indicating further upward momentum.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors:
  • Handset and related accessories: +0.6% daily change.
  • Logistics: +0.3% daily change.
  • REITs: +0.2% daily change.
  • Durable Consumables: +0.2% daily change.
  • Local Banks: +0.1% daily change.
• Underperforming Sectors:
  • Dairy: -0.2% daily change.
  • Consumer Staples: -0.4% daily change.
  • Gaming: -0.5% daily change.
  • Chinese Insurers: -0.6% daily change.
  • IPP (Infrastructure & Public Utilities): -0.6% daily change.

Valuations and Forward P/E

• HSI: Forward P/E 10.7, below long-term average of 11.0, with -14.0% estimated EPS growth for FY1.
• HSCEI: Forward P/E 6.8, significantly below long-term average of 7.9, with -5.6% estimated EPS growth for FY1.
• Shanghai Composite: Forward P/E 12.2, above long-term average of 10.7, with +23.7% estimated EPS growth for FY1.
• S&P 500: Forward P/E 17.0, above long-term average of 15.3, with +7.3% estimated EPS growth for FY1.

External Market Conditions

• U.S. stocks ended mixed, with the Dow Jones up 22 points, S&P 500 down 3 points, and NASDAQ down 21 points.
• ADR (American Depositary Receipts) closed at 20,313, effectively putting the HSI up 24 points.
• Oil prices dropped to a 1-week low, with New York crude oil futures closing at US$36.34/bbl, down US$0.84.
• Gold futures settled at US$1,231.00/oz, down US$14.10.

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share price RMB28.54, H-share price HK$4.34, with a 683.5% premium.
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): A-share price RMB24.43, H-share price HK$19.42, with a 49.9% premium.
• SHENJI GROUP-H (300.HK): A-share price RMB9.80, H-share price HK$2.82, with a 314.0% premium.
• NANJING PANDA-H (553.HK): A-share price RMB12.01, H-share price HK$5.43, with a 163.5% premium.
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): A-share price RMB12.68, H-share price HK$6.23, with a 142.5% premium.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The document highlights the mixed performance of the Hong Kong and global markets, with a focus on upcoming earnings reports, key stock movements, and sectoral trends. It also provides insights into valuation metrics, A-share premiums, and external factors such as interest rates and commodity prices that may impact market sentiment. Investors are advised to be cautious and monitor these factors closely.