20150820-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_14页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, including index performance, key stocks, sector analysis, valuations, and macroeconomic indicators. It highlights investment opportunities, market trends, and the impact of external factors such as interest rates and oil prices on market behavior.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Market Trends and Index Performance

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 23,168, down 1.3% with a YTD decline of 1.9%.
• HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Closed at 10,642, down 1.2% with a YTD decline of 11.2%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,794, up 1.2% with a YTD gain of 17.3%.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 2,222, up 2.2% with a YTD gain of 57.0%.
• U.S. Indices:
  • DJIA: Closed at 17,349, down 0.9%.
  • S&P 500: Closed at 2,080, down 0.8%.
  • Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,019, down 0.8%.

2. Market Highlights

• FOMC Minutes: Indicate that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in September due to inflation not being on target.
• PBOC MLF Operation: Injected HKD 110 billion into the market, suggesting potential for further monetary easing.
• Oil Prices: Fell due to increased U.S. crude stockpiles, impacting airline stocks.
• HSI Performance: HSI closed at 23,167, down 307 points, while HSCEI closed at 10,642, down 127 points.
• Airline Stocks: China Southern and China Eastern fell 4% and 2%, respectively, due to oil price decline.
• Cathay Pacific: Missed profit expectations, leading to a 7.7% drop.

3. Stock in Focus: Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK)

• Price: HK$4.80
• Entry: HK$4.40
• Target: HK$5.20
• Stop-loss: HK$4.00
• YTD Performance: +28.3%
• Market Cap: HK$9.96 billion
• 3M Avg. Daily Volume: 3.86 million shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 29.8X
• Performance:
  • The company is the largest funeral service provider in China with a diversified portfolio.
  • It reported better-than-expected interim results with revenue and profit up 43.3% and 23.2% respectively.
  • The company is implementing a "two-wheel drive" strategy, focusing on both internal improvements and external expansion.
  • The sector is expected to benefit from rising per capita income and an aging population.
  • The stock is trending upward, with a recommendation to buy if it retreats to HK$4.40.

4. Today's Top Picks

• Avichina (2357.HK):
  • Price: HK$6.50
  • Target: HK$7.42
  • Stop-loss: HK$5.90
  • Reason: Military reform and recent share price correction.
• Hosa Int'l (2200.HK):
  • Price: HK$3.57
  • Target: HK$4.10
  • Stop-loss: HK$3.22
  • Reason: Introduction of smart sports products in September with high profitability potential.

5. Sector Performance Overview

• Best Performing Sectors:

  • Other Metals: +0.9%
  • Sports Accessories: +0.4%
  • Building Materials: -0.2%
  • Coal: -0.3%
  • Steel: -0.5%
  • Chinese Banks: -0.5%
  • Automobile: -0.5%
  • Oil-related: -0.6%
  • Department Store: -0.6%
  • Local Property: -0.7%
  • Telecoms Equipment: -0.8%
  • Logistics: -0.8%
  • REITs: -0.9%

• Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:

  • Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper, CMOC, Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining
  • Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees, Xtep Int'l, Peak Sport, Anta Sports, Li Ning
  • Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group, AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Coolpad Group, TCL Comm
  • Brokerages: First Shanghai, Central China Sec., CITIC Sec., Haitong Sec., China Galaxy Sec.
  • Building Materials: Shanshui Cement, Anhui Conch, China Res Cement, BBMG, CNBM
  • Coal: China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, China Coal
  • Steel: Angang Steel, Maanshan Iron, Shougang Res.
  • Chinese Banks: CCB, ABC, ICBC, BankComm, BOC
  • Automobile: Geely Auto, Dongfeng Motor, BRILLIANCE CHI, BYD Co., Great Wall Motor
  • Oil-related: Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, Hilong Hldg., China Oilfield Services
  • Department Store: NWDS China, Springland, Intime, Golden Eagle, Parkson Group
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison, Henderson Land, SHK Prop, New World Dev, Sino Land
  • Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service, ZTE, Trigiant, Comba
  • Logistics: Kerry Log Net, SITC
  • REITs: Yuexiu REIT, Fortune REIT, Prosperity REIT, LINK Reit, Champion REIT

6. Valuation Metrics of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index: FY15E P/E 11.5X, Long-term average 11.4X, Deviation from average 0.6%, FY1 EPS growth -13.1%, FY2 EPS growth 9.8%.
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E 7.9X, Long-term average 8.9X, Deviation from average -11.7%, FY1 EPS growth -1.5%, FY2 EPS growth 9.3%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E 15.5X, Long-term average 11.1X, Deviation from average 39.6%, FY1 EPS growth 24.7%, FY2 EPS growth 13.5%.
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E 17.6X, Long-term average 14.4X, Deviation from average 22.3%, FY1 EPS growth 4.8%, FY2 EPS growth 10.9%.

7. Market Data

Best and Worst Performers

• Best Performers:

  • Yanchang Petro: +7.8%
  • Techtronic Ind: +7.0%
  • Renhe Commercial: +5.9%
  • Zhaojin Mining: +5.7%
  • Great Wall Mot-H: +4.9%

• Worst Performers:

  • North Mining Sha: -11.0%
  • China Precious M: -9.2%
  • Ct Environmental: -8.3%
  • Cathay Pac Air: -7.7%
  • CRTG: -7.6%

HSCI Volume Filter

• Cathay Pac Air (293.HK): High volume increase of 322.0%, FY1 P/E 9.0X, FY2 P/E 7.9X.
• North Mining Sha (433.HK): High volume increase of 205.0%, FY1 P/E N/A, FY2 P/E N/A.
• Springland (1700.HK): Volume increase of 191.1%, FY1 P/E 8.3X, FY2 P/E 8.0X.
• Chong Hing Bank (1111.HK): Volume increase of 161.3%, FY1 P/E 8.6X, FY2 P/E 7.2X.
• China Everbr Int (257.HK): Volume increase of 153.0%, FY1 P/E 20.4X, FY2 P/E 15.5X.
• China Overseas (688.HK): Volume increase of 143.8%, FY1 P/E 7.0X, FY2 P/E 6.4X.
• Want Want China (151.HK): Volume increase of 139.9%, FY1 P/E 18.12X, FY2 P/E 21.79X.
• Techtronic Ind (669.HK): Volume increase of 134.3%, FY1 P/E 19.8X, FY2 P/E 16.7X.
• Yueyuen Ind (551.HK): Volume increase of 118.3%, FY1 P/E 13.1X, FY2 P/E 11.3X.
• China Vanke-H (2202.HK): FY1 P/E 7.7X, FY2 P/E 6.8X.

Most Short Sold Stocks

• Wynn Macau Ltd (1128.HK): 1.1% of total short sell turnover.
• Sun Art Retail (6808.HK): 0.3% of total short sell turnover.
• China Oilfield-H (2883.HK): 0.4% of total short sell turnover.
• China Everbr Int (257.HK): 146.8% volume increase.
• Anhui Conch-H (914.HK): 215.5% volume increase.
• China Shenhua-H (1088.HK): 193.2% volume increase.
• CITIC Sec-H (6030.HK): 155.7% volume increase.
• China Life-H (1336.HK): 18.2% A-share premium to H-share.
• Bank of China-H (3988.HK): 27.3% A-share premium to H-share.
• ICBC-H (1398.HK): 9.5% A-share premium to H-share.

8. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.6574%, down 4.99 bps.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 2.1239%, down 6.15 bps.
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury Yield: 2.8122%, down 4.28 bps.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2393%, up 0.01 bps.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3871%, down 0.14 bps.
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.7070%, up 3.60 bps.
  • SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.0940%, down 0.30 bps.

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 96.3010, down 0.1%.
  • USD/HKD: 7.7527, unchanged.
  • EUR/USD: 1.1142, down 0.1%.
  • USD/JPY: 123.87, up 0.5%.
  • GBP/USD: 1.5693, up 0.5%.
  • USD/CHF: 0.9646, up 1.2%.
  • AUD/USD: 0.7365, up 0.1%.
  • NZD/USD: 0.6608, up 0.5%.
  • USD/CAD: 1.3108, down 0.4%.
  • USD/CNY: 6.3957, up 0.1%.
  • USD/CNH: 6.4460, up 0.3%.

9. Precious Metals and Commodities

• CRB Index: 193.8, down 2.6%.
• Comex Gold: 1,133.0, up 1.6%.
• Comex Silver: 15.285, down 0.7%.
• Nymex WTI Crude: 40.69, down 3.6%.
• ICE Brent Crude: 47.07, down 4.4%.
• LME Copper: 4,995, down 3.7%.
• LME Aluminum: 1,556.5, down 2.0%.
• CBT Wheat: 499.00, down 0.8%.
• CBT Corn: 369.00, up 1.4%.
• CBT Soybean: 905.50, down 3.3%.

10. A-Share Premium to H-Share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share premium of 635.6%.
• SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033.HK): A-share premium of 351.6%.
• ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057.HK): A-share premium of 310.1%.
• NORTHEAST ELEC-H (42.HK): A-share premium of 218.6%.
• SHENJI GROUP-H (300.HK): A-share premium of 189.6%.
• CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919.HK): A-share premium of 185.4%.
• ABC-H (1288.HK): A-share premium of 20.1%.
• ICBC-H (1398.HK): A-share premium of 9.5%.
• CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): A-share premium of 140.4%.
• CHINA RAIL GR-H (390.HK): A-share premium of 111.4%.

11. Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823): Price HK$11.30, 1D change -0.88%, 5D change -5.83%.
• TRACKER FUND HK (2800): Price HK$23.80, 1D change -1.24%, 5D change -2.86%.
• CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822): Price HK$12.94, 1D change -0.61%, 5D change -4.71%.
• HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828): Price HK$108.70, 1D change -1.18%, 5D change -3.38%.
• CHINAAMC 300-HKD (3188): Price HK$46.20, 1D change 0.76%, 5D change -3.35%.
• CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822): Price HK$10.76, 1D change -0.55%, 5D change -6.43%.
• CHINAAMC 300-CNY (83188): Price HK$38.50, 1D change 1.05%, 5D change -4.82%.
• CSI 300 CHINA (2827): Price HK$35.00, 1D change 1% (partial data).

Summary

This daily note provides a detailed analysis of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets, including index trends, stock performance, sector analysis, valuations, and macroeconomic indicators. It highlights the potential of quality stocks like Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) and Avichina (2357.HK), and outlines the performance of various sectors and ETFs. The report also includes insights into the impact of external factors such as oil prices and U.S. rate hike speculation, and provides data on the A-share premium to H-share. Investors are advised to monitor market trends and consider strategic entry points based on the given performance metrics.