20150824-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_14页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions in Hong Kong and global markets, focusing on equity indices, key stocks, sector performance, valuations, and various market indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, and commodities. It also includes a list of top-performing and underperforming stocks, ETFs, and information on A-share premiums to H-share.

Main Points

Global Market Trends

Global stock market crashed, with US stocks suffering the biggest decline in nearly four years.
People's Bank of China may cut the required reserve ratio before the end of the month.
China's economic slowdown concerns have impacted global indices.
ADR (American Depositary Receipt) prices effectively put HSI down 406 points.
Oil prices have been falling for eight consecutive weeks, influenced by weak manufacturing data.
Gold has seen increased investment as a safe haven.

Hong Kong Market Performance

HSI closed at 22,410, down 1.5%.
HSCEI closed at 10,195, down 2.0%.
Main Board turnover was HK$118.3bn, down 1.89%.
Caixin's August PMI dropped to 47.1, indicating broad downside risks to China's real economic growth.
CKH Holdings-related stocks are expected to announce results, with CK Property falling 3.6% and CKH Holdings falling 2.9%.
Henderson Land reported a 5% increase in interim underlying profit, leading to a 5.5% rise in share price.

Key Stock Insights

Transport International (62.HK)

Price: HK$20.90
Entry: HK$19.30
Target: HK$22.00
Stop-loss: HK$18.30
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 27.3%/-2.6%/7.7%/41.2%
Market Cap: HK$8.44bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 0.23mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 12x
Reason for Buy Signal: Utility stock benefiting from lower oil prices, with significant fuel cost reduction in H1 2015.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors

Chinese Telecoms: +4.1% (1D), +4.6% (5D), +0.5% (1M)
Other Metals: -0.6% (1D), -4.7% (5D), -7.0% (1M)
REITs: -0.6% (1D), -3.0% (5D), -6.2% (1M)
Local Property: -0.7% (1D), -4.6% (5D), -12.4% (1M)
Consumer Staples: -0.8% (1D), -4.0% (5D), -6.1% (1M)

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)

Valuation Metrics

Forward P/E and Valuations

HSI: FY15E P/E of 11.1, long-term average of 11.3, deviation of -1.1%
HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 7.5, long-term average of 8.5, deviation of -11.4%
Shanghai Comp: FY15E P/E of 14.4, long-term average of 11.0, deviation of +30.4%
S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 16.7, long-term average of 14.7, deviation of +13.1%

Market Data Highlights

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers:
- China Telecom-H (728.HK): +6.9% (1D), +9.2% (5D), +5.0% (1M)
- Henderson Land D (12.HK): +5.5% (1D), -1.2% (5D), -10.1% (1M)
- Zhaojin Mining-H (1818.HK): +5.4% (1D), +7.5% (5D), +14.3% (1M)
Worst Performers:
- North Mining Sha (433.HK): -22.0% (1D), -72.9% (5D), -68.6% (1M)
- Xinchen China Po (1148.HK): -15.0% (1D), -19.2% (5D), -22.5% (1M)
- TVB (511.HK): -11.1% (1D), -22.8% (5D), -25.1% (1M)

Short-Sold Stocks

Springland (1700.HK): -0.4% (1D), shortsell turnover of HK$0.0m, 0.0% of total turnover
Sun Art Retail (6808.HK): -1.5% (1D), shortsell turnover of HK$111.9m, 0.8% of total turnover
Bank East Asia (23.HK): -2.6% (1D), shortsell turnover of HK$149.8m, 1.1% of total turnover
TSINGTAO BREW-H (168.HK): -4.0% (1D), shortsell turnover of HK$50.6m, 0.4% of total turnover
HYSAN DEV (14.HK): -1.2% (1D), shortsell turnover of HK$45.3m, 0.3% of total turnover

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.6087%, -9.71% (5D)
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.0365%, -13.13% (5D)
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.7293%, -8.83% (5D)
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2426%, +0.14% (5D)
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3892%, -0.03% (5D)

Exchange Rates

USD Dollar Index: 94.9200, -1.9% (5D)
USD/HKD: 7.7521, 0.0% (5D)
EUR/USD: 1.1375, +2.7% (5D)
USD/JPY: 121.87, +2.1% (5D)
GBP/USD: 1.5670, +0.5% (5D)
USD/CHF: 0.9476, +3.3% (5D)
USD/CNY: 6.3922, +0.1% (5D)
USD/CNH: 6.4560, -0.2% (5D)

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 191.3, -3.3% (5D)
Comex Gold: 1,158.3, +3.6% (5D)
Comex Silver: 15.305, 0.0% (5D)
Nymex WTI Crude: 40.02, -4.4% (5D)
ICE Brent Crude: 45.13, -7.4% (5D)
LME Copper: 5,055, -2.1% (5D)
LME Aluminum: 1,548, -2.1% (5D)

A-Share Premium to H-Share

LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share price of 34.89 RMB, premium of 662.4%
SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033.HK): A-share price of 8.74 RMB, premium of 345.4%
JIANGXI COPPER-H (358.HK): A-share price of 15.73 RMB, premium of 91.0%
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057.HK): A-share price of 52.01 RMB, premium of 310.3%
SHANGHAI ELECT-H (2727.HK): A-share price of 12.56 RMB, premium of 225.5%
CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919.HK): A-share price of 11.63 RMB, premium of 185.5%
ZIJIN MINING-H (2899.HK): A-share price of 4.17 RMB, premium of 129.9%
CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): A-share price of 9.86 RMB, premium of 115.1%
CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): A-share price of 13.91 RMB, premium of -4.4%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823): Price HK$10.74, -2.36% (1D), -11.82% (5D)
CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822): Price HK$12.36, -2.68% (1D), -10.17% (5D)
TRACKER FUND HK (2800): Price HK$23.10, -1.49% (1D), -6.29% (5D)
HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828): Price HK$104.20, -1.79% (1D), -7.54% (5D)
CHINAAMC 300-HKD (3188): Price HK$43.00, -4.44% (1D), -12.69% (5D)
CSI 300 CHINA (2827): Price HK$32.40, -4.57% (1D), -12.08% (5D)
CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822): Price HK$10.24, -3.03% (1D), -10.49% (5D)
CHINAAMC 300-CNY (83188): Price HK$35.85, -4.40% (1D), -11.92% (5D)
SPDR GOLD SHARES (3020): Price HK$856.00, +1.30% (1D), +3.13% (5D)
CSOP SZSE ETF-HK (3147): Price HK$10.34, -6.00% (1D), -12.22% (5D)
ISHARES MSCI CHI (2801): Price HK$19.72, -1.40% (1D), -6.98% (5D)
HSI ETF-HKD (2833): Price HK$228.80, -1.21% (1D), -6.61% (5D)
HARVEST CH A-HKD (3118): Price HK$15.70, -4.85% (1D), -12.58% (5D)
ISHARES S&P BSE (2836): Price HK$18.62, -2.72% (1D), -5.00% (5D)
DBX MSCI USA (3020): Price HK$401.00, -2.20% (1D), - (5D)

Conclusion

The market is showing signs of weakness, with global indices and Hong Kong equities declining due to concerns over China's economic slowdown and oil prices. Transport International is highlighted as a buy opportunity due to its utility nature and benefits from lower oil prices. Sector performance indicates telecoms and metals as potential areas for growth, while consumer staples and real estate are underperforming. ETFs and A-share premiums provide further insights into market sentiment and investment flows.