20160321-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_14页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets on March 21-22, 2016. It includes key market indices, sector performance, stock highlights, valuations, and other financial indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 20,671, up 0.8% from the previous day, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 5.7%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 8,883, up 1.2% from the previous day, with a YTD decline of 8.1%.
• Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 2,955, up 1.7%, with a YTD decline of 16.5%.
• Shenzhen Composite Index: Closed at 1,837, up 3.7%, with a YTD decline of 20.4%.
• DJIA: Closed at 17,602, up 0.7%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 2,050, up 0.4%.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 4,796, up 0.4%, with a YTD decline of 4.2%.
• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,190, down 0.2%.
• DAX: Closed at 9,951, up 0.6%, with a YTD decline of 7.4%.
• CAC 40: Closed at 4,463, up 0.4%, with a YTD decline of 3.8%.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 16,725, down 1.2%, with a YTD decline of 12.1%.
• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 8,811, up 0.9%, with a YTD increase of 5.7%.

Market Highlights

• External markets rallied, with the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering rate hike forecasts, boosting investor sentiment.
• HSI may test its 100-day moving average (~20,880) in the short term.
• China Resources Land (1109.HK) is expected to report FY15 results and may improve in mid/long-term, supporting its stock price.

External Market Conditions

• U.S. stocks ended higher, with the S&P 500 joining the Dow in positive territory for the first time in 2016.
• Health-care and financial stocks led the rise.
• ADRs rose, effectively putting HSI up 106 points.
• Oil prices dropped due to a weekly increase in U.S. active oil rigs.
• Gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: HK$35.1bn, up 45.42%.
• HSCCI: HK$7.3bn, down 0.16%.
• HSCEI: HK$15.9bn, up 28.25%.
• Main Board: HK$92.8bn, up 31.37%.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (1D % change)

• Gaming: 8.3%
• Technology: 5.2%
• Brokerages: 4.5%
• Environmental and New Energy: 3.4%
• Steel: 2.4%
• Building Materials: 2.4%
• Handset and related accessories: 2.4%
• Telecoms Equipment: 2.1%
• Automobile: 2.0%
• Airline: 1.9%
• Durable Consumables: 1.9%
• Chinese Property: 1.9%
• Chinese Banks: 1.8%
• Chinese Insurers: 1.7%
• IPP: 1.7%

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

• Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
• Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
• Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
• Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
• Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
• Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
• Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
• Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
• Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
• Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
• Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
• Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
• Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
• Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
• IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)

Forward P/E and Valuations

• Hang Seng Index: FY16E P/E at 11.0, with a YTD EPS growth of -10.7% and an estimated FY2 EPS growth of 11.5%.
• HSCEI: FY16E P/E at 7.1, with a YTD EPS growth of -6.2% and an estimated FY2 EPS growth of 9.2%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E at 12.6, with a YTD EPS growth of 22.3% and an estimated FY2 EPS growth of 12.3%.
• S&P 500: FY16E P/E at 17.3, with a YTD EPS growth of 7.3% and an estimated FY2 EPS growth of 13.6%.

Market Data

Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers

• Best Performers:

  • SFCE (1165.HK): 14.5% 1D change, 9.2% 5D change, 37.2% 1M change.
  • COOLPAD (2369.HK): 14.0% 1D change, 10.2% 5D change, 12.1% 1M change.
  • MGM CHINA (2282.HK): 13.9% 1D change, 14.6% 5D change, 21.9% 1M change.
  • ZALL DEVELOPMENT (2098.HK): 10.0% 1D change, 20.5% 5D change, 40.9% 1M change.
  • Galaxy Ent. (27.HK): 9.6% 1D change, 9.8% 5D change, 15.1% 1M change.

• Worst Performers:

  • China Oceanwide (715.HK): -9.5% 1D change, -15.6% 5D change, -13.6% 1M change.
  • China Precious M (1194.HK): -6.6% 1D change, 0.0% 5D change, 14.5% 1M change.
  • TVB (511.HK): -5.9% 1D change, -8.1% 5D change, -6.7% 1M change.
  • Parkson Retail (3368.HK): -5.5% 1D change, -6.5% 5D change, -9.5% 1M change.
  • Towngas China (1083.HK): -5.3% 1D change, -3.6% 5D change, -5.6% 1M change.

Stock in Focus: Beijing Urban-H (1599.HK)

• Last Close: HK$4.00

• Entry: HK$3.95

• Target: HK$4.50

• Stop-loss: HK$3.43

• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -20.3% / 3.4% / -11.7% / -2.9%

• Market Cap: HK$5.09bn

• 3M Average Daily Volume: 0.82mn shares

• FY1 Forward P/E: 11.0

• Sector Outlook: Urbanisation is accelerating in China, and the company is involved in urban rail transit investigation and consultation.

• Market Share: 27% in the urban rail transport market and 50% nationwide.

• Financial Position: Healthy with no interest-bearing debts and a forward P/E lower than its 5-year average.

• Performance: Revenue up 2.7%, net profit down 8.7%, new orders increased 1.5 times, and outstanding orders over RMB13bn.

Today's Top Picks

• CK Property (1113.HK):

  • Last Close: HK$46.80
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$55.00
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$42.00
  • Reason: Strong balance sheet and attractive valuations.

• CASH Fin Ser Gp (510):

  • Last Close: HK$0.31
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$0.36
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.28
  • Reason: Strong share price rally and expected to rise above 150-day MA.

Key Financial Indicators

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.8353%, down 12.01 bps in 5D.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 1.8732%, down 11.07 bps in 5D.
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.6753%, down 7.79 bps in 5D.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2250%, down 0.80 bps.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.5573%, down 1.05 bps.
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.6620%, down 0.40 bps.
  • SH 3-month HIBOR: 2.7930%, down 0.60 bps.

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 95.0800, down 1.6%.
  • USD/HKD: 7.7546, up 0.1%.
  • EUR/USD: 1.1275, up 1.5%.
  • USD/JPY: 111.4, up 2.2%.
  • GBP/USD: 1.4451, up 1.0%.
  • USD/CHF: 0.9696, up 1.8%.
  • AUD/USD: 0.7586, up 1.0%.
  • NZD/USD: 0.6766, up 1.3%.
  • USD/CAD: 1.3059, up 1.5%.
  • USD/CNY: 6.4746, up 0.4%.
  • USD/CNH: 6.4723, up 0.3%.

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • CRB Index: 176.3, up 1.6%.
  • Comex Gold: 1,255.5, up 0.8%.
  • Comex Silver: 15.825, up 2.0%.
  • Nymex WTI Crude: 38.97, up 4.8%.
  • ICE Brent Crude: 41, up 3.7%.
  • LME Copper: 5,042.00, up 1.4%.
  • LME Aluminum: 1,521.00, down 2.6%.
  • CBT Wheat: 466.50, down 2.6%.
  • CBT Corn: 366.25, down 0.7%.
  • CBT Soybean: 894.75, down 0.1%.

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share premium of 696.6%.
• BAIYUNSHAN PH-H (874.HK): A-share premium of 61.1%.
• SHANDONG CHEN-H (1812.HK): A-share premium of 60.7%.
• ZIJIN MINING-H (2899.HK): A-share premium of 60.2%.
• YANZHOU COAL-H (1171.HK): A-share premium of 229.4%.
• CHINA RAIL CN-H (1186.HK): A-share premium of 57.1%.
• CHINA SHIPPING-H (2866.HK): A-share premium of 208.4%.
• CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919.HK): A-share premium of 34.63%.
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): A-share premium of 143.4%.
• ZTE-H (763.HK): A-share premium of 27.4%.
• CEB BANK-H (6818.HK): A-share premium of 23.4%.
• ALUMINUM CORP-H (2600.HK): A-share premium of 100.9%.

Summary

This document outlines the performance of key indices and sectors, highlights stocks with potential for growth, and provides insights into market sentiment, valuations, and financial indicators. It also includes data on A-share premiums to H-shares, which can help investors understand relative value and market dynamics.