euromonitor-全球经济预测2021年4季度（英）-28页_662kb

Global Economic Forecasts Summary - Q4 2021

Core Content

This report provides quarterly macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios for the global economy, focusing on GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates for key economies. The data is based on Euromonitor International's Macro Model and reflects the economic outlook as of November 2021, considering the ongoing impact of the pandemic and its variants.

Main Points

• Global GDP Recovery: After a 3.1% contraction in 2020, global real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.7% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022. However, the recovery is constrained by a mismatch between consumer demand and service availability, as well as between demand recovery and supply rebound.
• Key Risk Scenarios: The report outlines three main risk scenarios based on the number of pandemic waves and their economic impact:
  • Baseline/Most Likely: 5.2-6.1% GDP growth in 2021, 3.8-5.2% in 2022, with a 65-75% probability.
  • Pessimistic1: 4.6-5.6% GDP growth in 2021, -0.7-0.8% in 2022, with a 18-28% probability.
  • Pessimistic2: 4.5-5.2% GDP growth in 2021, -3.0-2.0% in 2022, with a 2-5% probability.
  • Optimistic1: 5.7-6.2% GDP growth in 2021, 6.2-7.2% in 2022, with a 2-6% probability.
• Global Risk Index: The index ranks the impact and likelihood of different global scenarios, with the China Hard Landing scenario showing the highest impact (-2.3% GDP) and COVID-19 Pessimistic1 having the highest probability (23%).

GDP Growth Forecasts (2021-2022)

Advanced Economies

Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation Forecasts (2021-2022)

Central Bank Interest Rate Forecasts

• Advanced Economies: The report includes interest rate forecasts, with the Federal Funds Rate in the US expected to rise gradually.
• Developing and Emerging Economies: Interest rates are also forecasted to rise, especially in countries like Brazil and Russia, as central banks aim to curb inflation.

Key Factors Affecting Economic Recovery

• Vaccination Rates: The speed and extent of vaccination campaigns significantly influence economic recovery, especially in countries like the US, India, and Brazil.
• Supply Chain Issues: Shortages of raw materials and labor are affecting growth, particularly in the Eurozone and the US.
• Consumer Confidence: Declines in consumer confidence are impacting economic activity, especially in the UK and Eurozone.
• Government Stimulus: Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to support recovery in several economies, including the US and India.
• Pandemic Variants: The emergence of new, more infectious variants is a major risk, potentially leading to renewed lockdowns and slower growth.

Summary of Risk Scenarios

Conclusion

The global economy is expected to recover in 2021, with a projected growth of 5.7% for the year. However, the recovery is likely to slow in 2022 due to the ongoing impact of the pandemic, supply chain constraints, and inflationary pressures. The report highlights the importance of vaccination rates, government policy, and global economic interdependence in shaping the outlook for the coming years.