2000年-世界发展银行全球_Dominican_Republic___Social_and_Structural_Policy_Review_Volume_2_110页_6mb

Dominican Republic Social and Structural Policy Review Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the Dominican Republic's economic growth, poverty reduction, macroeconomic policy, commercial policy, regulatory framework, and public sector management. It emphasizes the dual nature of the economy, with a focus on the role of structural reforms and public investment in sustaining growth and reducing poverty.

Main Views

Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

• The Dominican Republic experienced remarkable economic growth since 1991, with an annual average GDP growth exceeding 6% from 1992 to 1998.
• Poverty incidence declined from 31.7% in 1992 to 25.8% in 1998.
• However, over 2 million Dominicans still live in poverty, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth.

Dual Economic Structure

• The economy is divided into two main parts: competitive, export-oriented sectors (such as tourism, telecommunications, and free-trade zones) and traditional, state-interventionist sectors (such as agriculture and non-FTZ industries).
• The traditional sectors suffer from excessive protectionism, bureaucratic red tape, and insecure property rights, which hinder productivity and growth.

Sources of Growth

• Capital Accumulation: The most significant source of growth over the past 25 years.
• Total Factor Productivity (TFP): Contributed minimally to growth, with an average annual increase of only 0.4%.
• Free-Trade Zones (FTZs): Showed much higher productivity growth than the rest of the economy, with an average of over 4 times higher TFP growth.
• Public Investment: Played a crucial role in the past but has increasingly shifted toward current expenditures, potentially reducing its net contribution to private investment.

Macroeconomic Policy

• The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and maintaining high investment rates for continued growth.
• Public investment has had a net crowding-out effect on private investment, with a 0.2% decrease in private investment for every 1% increase in public investment.
• Public investment in basic public goods (e.g., transport, rural roads, water & sewerage) has a crowding-in effect of about 30%, while investment in nonbasic public goods has a crowding-out effect of 15%.

Commercial Policy

• A general equilibrium model was used to evaluate the impact of commercial policies.
• The FTZs are highly competitive and closely linked to the global economy, but their growth is not fully captured by traditional GDP measurement methods.
• The report suggests that the regulatory environment of the FTZs should be extended to the rest of the economy to enhance productivity and growth.

Regulatory Framework and Banking Sector

• The legal and institutional framework for the banking sector is discussed, with emphasis on regulation, transparency, and the role of the Central Bank.
• The report outlines procedures for addressing banking sector risks, including a Deposit Insurance Scheme (DIS) and institutional requirements for remedying banking problems.

Budget Law and Public Sector Management

• The budget law and the Presidential Fund 1401 are analyzed in terms of their role in public investment and management.
• The Agenda for Reform is proposed to enhance the effectiveness of public investment and support private sector growth.

Key Information

Key Statistics

• Exchange Rate: US$1.00 = DR$16.35 (as of March 22, 2000)
• Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31
• Investment to GDP Ratio: 26% in 1998
• GDP Growth (1992–1998): 6.1%
• TFP Growth (1992–1998): 2.3%
• FTZs TFP Growth (1992–1998): 9.6%
• Crowding-out Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment: 0.2% per percentage point of public investment
• Crowding-in Effect of Basic Public Goods: 30%
• Crowding-out Effect of Nonbasic Public Goods: 15%

Key Findings

• The dual structure of the economy affects growth and poverty reduction.
• Structural reforms are essential for sustaining productivity and growth.
• Public investment should be directed toward basic public goods to encourage private investment.
• Trade liberalization and openness contribute positively to private investment and output growth.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the Dominican Republic's economic success since the early 1990s is due to macroeconomic stability and structural reforms. However, to maintain growth and further reduce poverty, the country must continue with structural reforms and ensure that public investment is focused on core public goods to promote private investment. The regulatory environment of the FTZs could serve as a model for the broader economy.