2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Central_African_Republic_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_Fifth_Review_under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Financing_Assurances_Review_105页_2mb

Central African Republic: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under ECF Arrangement

Core Content Overview

The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) underwent the 2018 Article IV Consultation and the Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, alongside a Financing Assurances Review. These reviews were conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to assess the country's economic performance, policy implementation, and future outlook. The IMF approved the disbursement of SDR 22.84 million (about US$31.6 million) as part of the ECF arrangement, which was initially approved in 2016 and has since been augmented twice, totaling SDR 133.68 million (120% of quota).

The country remains a fragile state with an unstable security environment and widespread poverty. Despite challenges, macroeconomic conditions have stabilized following the 2013 crisis, with growth resuming and inflation declining. The government has implemented a comprehensive economic reform program aimed at macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and poverty reduction.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance

• Growth: Estimated at 4.3% in 2017, with expectations of remaining broadly unchanged in 2018. Medium-term growth is projected to reach 5%.
• Inflation: Fell to 3% in 2018, driven by price declines in food and manufacturing products.
• Fiscal Deficit: Remained contained in 2017 and 2018, with the domestic primary balance overperforming due to underspending.
• Current Account Deficit: Estimated at 8.3% of GDP in 2017, expected to remain similar in 2018. The deficit is partially offset by higher timber exports and diamond sales.
• Public Sector Debt: Declined from 56.0% of GDP in 2016 to 31.5% in 2023, with both domestic and external debt showing a downward trend.

Program Implementation

• The ECF-supported program has been implemented satisfactorily, despite the security challenges and humanitarian needs.
• The 2019 budget was adopted in line with macroeconomic stability, integrating previously excluded revenues and expenditures.
• The government has made progress in improving public financial management, including quarterly budget execution reports and reduced use of exceptional spending procedures.
• Efforts to strengthen fiscal revenue mobilization, improve governance, and enhance transparency have been emphasized.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Domestic Revenue Mobilization: To sustainably finance public services, the government should enhance domestic revenue collection and modernize customs and tax administration.
• Good Governance: Strengthen the asset declaration regime, implement the United Nations Convention against Corruption, and improve the management of natural resources.
• Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth: Promote private sector-led growth, improve the business climate, and support reconciliation through economic opportunities.
• Gender Equality: Encourage policies that promote gender equality to enhance resilience and economic prospects.

Structural Reforms

• Progress has been made in streamlining quasi-fiscal taxes and strengthening the treasury single account.
• The National Recovery and Peacebuilding Plan (NRPP) is being implemented with donor support to rebuild public administration, reduce poverty, and promote economic recovery.
• Continued reliance on grant financing is essential due to the high risk of debt distress.

External Sector and Risks

• The external position remains weak, with risks on the downside due to insecurity and high transportation costs.
• The country's reliance on oil imports and the global oil price increase pose challenges, but the sale of stockpiled diamonds and timber exports help to mitigate these.
• The IMF emphasized the need to resolve external arrears and maintain regional net foreign assets.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board welcomed the government's continued commitment to the program and the satisfactory performance under the ECF.
• They stressed the importance of rebuilding institutions, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and implementing reforms to support inclusive growth.
• The Board recommended continued efforts to strengthen governance, transparency, and the business environment, as well as to address the risk of debt distress through grant financing.

Program Modality and Financing

• The ECF program is supported by regional institutions, including the CEMAC, and the government has been working closely with them to maintain a stable monetary policy and promote financial sector stability.
• The next Article IV consultation is expected to follow the established cycle, with the program's success contingent on the implementation of policy assurances.

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that the Central African Republic's program remains on track, with satisfactory performance and continued support from regional institutions. The country's path to recovery and stability depends on sustained efforts in macroeconomic management, revenue mobilization, good governance, and addressing the root causes of fragility. The disbursement of SDR 22.84 million under the ECF is a step toward achieving these goals.