DIIS-土耳其与北约关系展望（英文）-2020.5-60页_5mb

Summary of "Turkey's NATO Future"

Core Content

This report explores the evolving dynamics of Turkey's relationship with NATO, focusing on the interplay between centripetal and centrifugal forces that may either strengthen or weaken its membership. It analyzes recent developments and their implications on Turkey's strategic alignment with the alliance, particularly in light of its growing tensions with other NATO members and its domestic political changes.

Main Cases and Questions

The report outlines four key cases that have raised concerns about Turkey's NATO future:

1. The S-400 Case: Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system in 2019 led to a significant rift with the US and NATO. The US halted F-35 deliveries and threatened sanctions, but these were not implemented, suggesting a lack of firm resolve from the US side. The S-400 purchase is seen as a strategic defiance, potentially compromising NATO's operational integration and raising questions about Turkey's long-term alignment with the alliance.

2. Syria: Turkey's military and political actions in Syria have diverged from those of other NATO members, especially the US. Turkey has aligned more closely with Russia and Iran, particularly through the Astana format, to counter Kurdish autonomy and ISIS. This has led to criticism from NATO members like France, who accused Turkey of undermining alliance cohesion.

3. Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Disputes over hydrocarbon exploration in the region, particularly with Greece and Cyprus, have led to EU sanctions and further complications in Turkey-NATO relations. Turkey's actions in this area, including a memorandum with Libya, have been seen as provocative and have strained relations with other NATO members.

4. Repercussions of the 2016 Coup Attempt: The failed coup attempt in Turkey has heightened distrust towards the West, especially the US and Europe. Turkey perceives these countries as supporting the Gülen movement, which it views as a threat. This has contributed to a broader narrative of Western hostility and has eroded Turkey's democratic image in the eyes of NATO.

Centripetal Forces

Despite these tensions, the report highlights three centripetal forces that continue to bind Turkey to NATO:

• Alliance Dependence: Turkey and NATO rely on each other for security and strategic interests. Turkey benefits from NATO's collective defense, while NATO relies on Turkey for its strategic position in the region.

• Lack of Deep Alignment with Russia: Turkey's engagement with Russia is seen as a tactical move rather than a fundamental shift in foreign policy. This is a hedging strategy aimed at securing concessions from Western partners.

• Historical and Institutional Ties: Differences between Turkey and NATO are not new and have been managed through established mechanisms. The alliance has historically absorbed such differences, suggesting a resilient relationship.

Centrifugal Forces

However, the report identifies four centrifugal forces that are increasingly challenging the stability of Turkey-NATO relations:

• Growing Turkish Frustration with NATO: Turkey feels that its requests for support are not being adequately addressed by NATO, leading to a sense of alienation and disillusionment.

• Domestic Developments in Turkey: Political purges and the rise of nationalist sentiments have shifted the country's internal dynamics, affecting its foreign policy and its approach to NATO.

• Quest for Strategic Autonomy: Turkey is increasingly seeking to reduce its reliance on NATO, aiming to assert more independence in its foreign and defense policies. This is a new and growing trend in Turkish international relations.

• American Retrenchment from the Middle East: The US's reduced involvement in the region has left a vacuum, which Turkey is attempting to fill. This shift has weakened the US's ability to act as a stabilizing force in Turkey-NATO relations.

Outlook

While the report suggests that Turkey-NATO relations are unlikely to break down due to the presence of strong centripetal forces, the increasing salience of centrifugal forces could lead to further complications. The report emphasizes that the future of Turkey in NATO will depend on how these forces interact and whether the alliance can adapt to Turkey's evolving strategic needs and domestic politics.

Key Takeaways

• The S-400 purchase and its political ramifications have strained Turkey-US and Turkey-NATO relations.
• Turkey's actions in Syria have led to closer ties with Russia and Iran, creating a complex geopolitical situation.
• Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have escalated due to Turkey's hydrocarbon exploration and its memorandum with Libya.
• The 2016 coup attempt has deepened Turkey's distrust of the West and affected its democratic image.
• Despite these challenges, Turkey remains an important NATO member, and the alliance continues to hold significant influence over Turkey's strategic decisions.

Methodology

The report is based on semi-structured interviews with practitioners and researchers, as well as recent literature and press reports. It provides an in-depth analysis of the political, military, and strategic dimensions of Turkey's NATO future.