DIIS-丹麦外交政策评论2020（英文）-2020.7-134页_568kb

Summary of Danish Foreign Policy Review 2020

Core Content

The Danish Foreign Policy Review 2020 is a publication by the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), edited by Kristian Fischer and Hans Mouritzen. It serves as a continuation of the Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook, offering an in-depth analysis of Danish foreign policy in a global, regional, and domestic context. The publication includes ministerial articles and peer-reviewed academic articles, reflecting both governmental perspectives and scholarly insights.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Ministerial Articles

The International Situation and Danish Foreign Policy 2019

• Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeppe Kofod outlines three major trends shaping Danish foreign policy in 2019:

  • Great power politics is back: The resurgence of major power rivalries, especially between the US, Russia, and China, has led to a more multipolar world. This has created challenges for the international order, as seen in the collapse of the INF treaty in August 2019.
  • Pressure on rules-based international cooperation: Institutions like the EU, NATO, UN, and WTO face increasing scrutiny. The downfall of the WTO Appellate Body and divisions in the UN Security Council highlight this trend.
  • Regional instability in global hotspots: Tensions in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region have intensified. The strategic importance of the Sahel for Denmark and the EU has grown due to its proximity to Europe and the threat of terrorism and irregular migration.

• Strategic Priorities:

  • Climate diplomacy became a key focus, with Denmark launching a new sustainability strategy and appointing its first climate ambassador.
  • Fair and sustainable trade was promoted through a new Forum on Fair and Sustainable Trade Policy.
  • Danish jobs and welfare were prioritised, with efforts to ensure that trade benefits workers and company owners.

• NATO and EU Role:

  • NATO remains the cornerstone of Danish security, especially after its 70th anniversary.
  • The EU is seen as a critical forum for globalisation, with Denmark pushing for reforms and modernisation of multilateral institutions.
  • The EU is called upon to become a Climate Union, aiming for climate neutrality by 2050 and a revised 2030 reduction target.

Security and Defence in an Unpredictable World - Turned Upside Down by COVID-19

• Minister of Defence Trine Bramsen discusses the impact of global instability and the pandemic on security and defence.
• The Arctic region has become a security arena, with the US, Russia, and China increasingly competing in the area.
• Denmark's role includes supporting NATO's training mission in Iraq and participating in the European Maritime Surveillance Mission in the Strait of Hormuz (EMASOH).
• Arctic exceptionalism is questioned, with the Arctic becoming more politicised due to rising tensions and resource competition.
• Climate change and migration are identified as central challenges, with the need for international cooperation and strategic foresight in addressing them.

2. Academic Articles

Belarus in Search of a New Foreign Policy: Why is it So Difficult?

• Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes examine Belarus's foreign policy challenges.
• Despite its geographical proximity to Denmark, Belarus remains a "blank spot" on the Danish mental map.
• Belarus continues to mistrust the West and ignore liberalisation demands, due to its close alliance with Russia.
• The Nordic countries are encouraged to support grassroots initiatives in Belarus to foster bottom-up change.

Danish-Chinese Relations: 'Business as Usual' or Strategic Disruption?

• Andreas Bøje Forsby analyses the evolving dynamics between Denmark and China.
• While relations have been positive and diversified in the past, recent tensions have emerged due to:
  • The US-China rivalry.
  • Repoliticisation of value differences.
  • Growing Chinese assertiveness in Denmark and globally.
• The new era of Danish-Chinese relations is characterised by increased complexity and the difficulty of maintaining 'business as usual'.

The End of Arctic Exceptionalism? A Review of the Academic Debates and What the Arctic Prospects Mean for the Kingdom of Denmark

• Mikkel Runge Olesen reviews academic debates on cooperation vs. conflict in the Arctic.
• Three camps are identified:
  • The alarmists: See conflict in the Arctic as likely.
  • The reassurers: Argue that the Arctic has exceptional traits that reduce conflict risks.
  • The worried: Fall between the two extremes.
• The article formulates two scenarios for the future of the Arctic and discusses their implications for Denmark:
  • Scenario 1: Increased militarisation and competition.
  • Scenario 2: Cooperation and multilateralism.
• Denmark is urged to engage more actively in Arctic diplomacy and international trade security.

3. Selected Bibliography

• A selected bibliography of scholarly works on Danish foreign policy published in English in 2019 is included.
• The bibliography serves as a resource for further reading and reflects the academic focus of the publication.

4. Conclusion

The Danish Foreign Policy Review 2020 highlights the complex and evolving nature of Denmark's foreign policy in the context of global challenges such as climate change, migration, and great power competition. It underscores the importance of multilateralism, strategic engagement, and a values-based approach to foreign policy. The publication also calls for active Danish leadership in global and regional issues, with a focus on security, sustainability, and human rights.