战略与国际研究中心-Iraqi-Security-and-Hearts-and-Minds_28页_1mb

Summary of ABC News Poll on Iraqi Security and "Hearts and Minds"

Core Content

The document presents a detailed analysis of the results from the ABC News Poll, titled "Where Things Stand," conducted in Iraq in February 2009. The poll provides insights into the security situation, perceptions of violence, and views on the U.S. and UK roles in the conflict, as well as the impact of the U.S. withdrawal and the new administration. The survey was conducted through in-person interviews with a random sample of 2,228 Iraqi adults, including oversampling in key regions such as Anbar Province, Basra City, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Sadr City. The results have a 2.5% margin of error and were fielded by D3 Systems and KA Research.

Key Findings

1. Iraqi Perceptions About Levels of Violence

• Overall Perception (NET):

  • Security (NET): 35% (2/25/09)
  • Lack of security/Safety (general): 8% (2/25/09)
  • War/Civil war/Unrest: 6% (2/25/09)
  • Sectarian violence: 4% (2/25/09)
  • Terrorist attacks: 7% (2/25/09)
  • Ethnic or religious tensions/Persecution/Discrimination/Intolerance: 6% (2/25/09)
  • Common crime/Street crime: 4% (2/25/09)

• Perceptions by Sect:

  • Sunni:

    • Security: 36% (2/25/09)
    • Lack of security: 8% (2/25/09)
    • War/Civil war/Unrest: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Sectarian violence: 4% (2/25/09)
    • Terrorist attacks: 7% (2/25/09)
    • Ethnic or religious tensions: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Common crime: 4% (2/25/09)

  • Shiite:

    • Security: 37% (2/25/09)
    • Lack of security: 8% (2/25/09)
    • War/Civil war/Unrest: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Sectarian violence: 4% (2/25/09)
    • Terrorist attacks: 7% (2/25/09)
    • Ethnic or religious tensions: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Common crime: 4% (2/25/09)

  • Kurdish:

    • Security: 25% (2/25/09)
    • Lack of security: 8% (2/25/09)
    • War/Civil war/Unrest: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Sectarian violence: 4% (2/25/09)
    • Terrorist attacks: 7% (2/25/09)
    • Ethnic or religious tensions: 6% (2/25/09)
    • Common crime: 4% (2/25/09)

• Security Situation Over Time:

  • Overall: 52% say it has improved, 39% say it has stayed the same, 8% say it has worsened (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 44% better, 15% worse, 40% same, 1% no opinion (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 54% better, 5% worse, 41% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 61% better, 5% worse, 35% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)

• Confidence in Continued Improvement:

  • Overall: 74% confident, 23% not confident (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 57% confident, 39% not confident (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 81% confident, 16% not confident (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 77% confident, 23% not confident (2/25/09)

2. Iraqi Encounters with Types of Internal Violence

• Car bombs, suicide attacks:

  • Overall: 25% have occurred nearby in the past one or two months (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 42% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 19% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 8% (2/25/09)

• Snipers, crossfire:

  • Overall: 21% have occurred nearby in the past one or two months (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 25% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 21% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 10% (2/25/09)

• Fighting among sectarian factions:

  • Overall: 18% have occurred nearby in the past one or two months (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 22% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 18% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 3% (2/25/09)

• Kidnappings for ransom:

  • Overall: 32% have occurred nearby in the past one or two months (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 45% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 30% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 11% (2/25/09)

• Fighting between Iraqi government and anti-government forces:

  • Overall: 20% have occurred nearby in the past one or two months (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 29% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 21% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 3% (2/25/09)

3. Perceptions of the US and US Role in the War

• Perception of U.S. Invasion (2003):
  • Overall: 42% say it was somewhat right, 19% absolutely right, 23% somewhat wrong, 28% absolutely wrong, 2% no opinion (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 55% somewhat right, 26% somewhat wrong, 28% absolutely wrong, 1% no opinion (2/20/08)
  • Shiite: 47% somewhat right, 30% somewhat wrong, 28% absolutely wrong, 5% no opinion (2/20/08)
  • Kurdish: 43% somewhat right, 28% somewhat wrong, 22% absolutely wrong, 8% no opinion (2/20/08)

4. Perceptions of US Forces

• Overall: 27% (NET)

  • Positive views: 27% (2/25/09)
  • Negative views: 23% (2/25/09)
  • No opinion: 50% (2/25/09)

• Sunni: 34% (NET)

  • Positive views: 34% (2/25/09)
  • Negative views: 23% (2/25/09)
  • No opinion: 43% (2/25/09)

• Shiite: 22% (NET)

  • Positive views: 22% (2/25/09)
  • Negative views: 19% (2/25/09)
  • No opinion: 59% (2/25/09)

• Kurdish: 28% (NET)

  • Positive views: 28% (2/25/09)
  • Negative views: 16% (2/25/09)
  • No opinion: 56% (2/25/09)

5. Perceptions of US Withdrawal and New Administration

• Overall: 52% say the security situation has improved, 39% say it has stayed the same, 8% say it has worsened (2/25/09)
• Sunni: 44% better, 15% worse, 40% same, 1% no opinion (2/25/09)
• Shiite: 54% better, 5% worse, 41% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)
• Kurdish: 61% better, 5% worse, 35% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)

6. Perceptions of the Role of British Forces in the South

• Overall: 52% say it has improved, 39% stayed the same, 8% worsened (2/25/09)
• Sunni: 44% better, 15% worse, 40% same, 1% no opinion (2/25/09)
• Shiite: 54% better, 5% worse, 41% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)
• Kurdish: 61% better, 5% worse, 35% same, 0% no opinion (2/25/09)

7. Perceptions of the US and UK vs. Regional Powers

• Overall:
  • US and UK: 23% (NET)
    • Positive views: 23% (2/25/09)
    • Negative views: 17% (2/25/09)
    • No opinion: 60% (2/25/09)
  • Iranian influence: 3% (NET)
  • Syrian influence: 1% (NET)
  • Saudi Arabian influence: 1% (NET)

8. Perceptions of Iraqi Security Forces

• Readiness and Loyalty (NET):

  • Overall: 27% (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 34% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 22% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 28% (2/25/09)

• Iraqi Army (NET):

  • Overall: 20% (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 23% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 18% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 12% (2/25/09)

• Iraqi Police (NET):

  • Overall: 23% (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 23% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 18% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 28% (2/25/09)

• Local Militia Forces and Awakening Councils (NET):

  • Overall: 25% (2/25/09)
  • Sunni: 31% (2/25/09)
  • Shiite: 22% (2/25/09)
  • Kurdish: 28% (2/25/09)

9. Perceptions of the Kurdish Issue

• Overall: 25% (NET)
  • Positive views: 25% (2/25/09)
  • Negative views: 17% (2/25/09)
  • No opinion: 58% (2/25/09)

10. General Life Satisfaction

• Overall: 65% say things are going well, 35% say they are going badly (2/25/09)
• Sunni: 49% good, 51% bad (2/25/09)
• Shiite: 70% good, 30% bad (2/25/09)
• Kurdish: 73% good, 27% bad (2/25/09)

11. Freedom to Live Without Persecution

• Overall: 43% say it is good, 56% say it is bad (2/25/09)
• Sunni: 31% good, 69% bad (2/25/09)
• Shiite: 44% good, 56% bad (2/25/09)
• Kurdish: 66% good, 33% bad (2/25/09)

12. Family Protection from Crime

• Overall: 78% say it is good, 22% say it is bad (2/25/09)
• Sunni: 59% good, 41% bad (2/25/09)
• Shiite: 88% good, 12% bad (2/25/09)
• Kurdish: 89% good, 11% bad (2/25/09)

Conclusion

The poll highlights that security concerns remain a significant issue for many Iraqis, particularly for Sunnis and Shiites, with the majority perceiving the situation as either unchanged or worsening. There is a growing sense that the U.S. invasion was somewhat right or wrong, with no clear consensus. The perception of U.S. forces is mixed, with more negative views among Shiites and Kurds. The role of the Iraqi security forces, including the army, police, and militias, is generally viewed with skepticism. Despite some improvements in the security situation, confidence in its sustainability is low. Additionally, economic and social issues continue to affect life satisfaction and freedom, indicating that security alone is not the primary concern for the majority of Iraqis.