战略与国际研究中心-The-Real-Results-of-the-Iraqi-Election_56页_1mb

Summary of Iraq After the Election: Meeting the Challenges of 2010

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the security, political, and economic challenges facing Iraq in the aftermath of the 2009 elections, with a focus on the year 2010 and beyond. It covers trends in violence, the status of Iraqi security forces (ISF), the budget crisis, and the transition of U.S. military involvement. The document also outlines key demographic and economic factors influencing Iraq's development.

Main Points and Key Information

Security Trends (2003-2009)

• The report tracks the changing patterns of violence in Iraq, including:
  • Weekly Security Incidents: Data from January 2004 to August 2009 shows fluctuations in the number of attacks and casualties.
  • Civilian Deaths: From January 2006 to August 2009, there was a significant number of civilian casualties, with a notable increase in late 2009.
  • Ethno-Sectarian Violence: There was a marked increase in violence between Sunni and Shi'ite groups, especially in 2008, with the most severe incidents in Baghdad and other major cities.
  • Key Areas of Shi'ite Extremist Activity: The report highlights the concentration of attacks in specific regions during different periods, indicating shifting conflict dynamics.

Violence in Late 2009 and Early 2010

• The period from late 2009 to early 2010 saw a surge in attacks targeting government institutions, with several large-scale bombings resulting in significant casualties.
• Notable incidents include:
  • October 14: 9 killed, 56 wounded in Baghdad and Kerbala.
  • October 16: 14 killed, 80 wounded in Telafar.
  • October 25: 132 killed, over 500 wounded in Baghdad.
  • December 8: At least 110 killed, 200 wounded in Baghdad.
  • December 30: 23 killed in Ramadi, including the governor.
  • January 2: 2 killed, 24 wounded in Mosul and Baghdad.
  • January 14: Approximately 27 killed in Najaf.

Election Results and Political Challenges

• The 2009 elections showed a strong nationalist and anti-incumbent sentiment, but sectarian and ethnic divisions remained significant.
• Major Political Parties:
  • Maliki's State of Law Party: 89 seats, 27.4% of the vote.
  • Allawi's Iraqiya: 91 seats, 28% of the vote.
  • Hakim-Jafaari-Sadr coalition: 70 seats, 21.5% of the vote.
• Key Challenges:
  • Achieving national unity amid deep sectarian and ethnic divisions.
  • Resolving the Kurdish issue and ensuring political accommodation.
  • Managing the transition of power and forming a stable government.
  • Addressing the needs of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees.
  • Ensuring the effective development of the Iraqi security forces (ISF) and transition of police training.

Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) Development

• As of December 2009, the ISF had 660,334 assigned personnel.
• The MOD planned for 14 Iraqi Army (IA) divisions, a Navy of 3,800, and an Air Force of 6,000.
• The ISF was undergoing development in various disciplines, including engineering, bomb disposal, and intelligence.
• Despite progress, the ISF still faced challenges in terms of manpower and readiness, exacerbated by a freeze on recruitment in 2009.

U.S. Military Transition and Aid

• The U.S. began withdrawing forces from urban areas by June 30, 2009, relying more on host nation reporting.
• The U.S. continued to provide military and economic aid to support Iraq's security and development.
• FY 2009 and FY 2010 Appropriations:
  • Defense: ISFF and CERP funds were allocated, but there was a reduction in overall spending.
  • Foreign Operations: ESF, INCLE, and NADR were funded, with ESF receiving a smaller appropriation than requested.
  • U.S. Equipment Disposition: The report outlines the status of U.S. equipment in Iraq and the ongoing transition of Iraqi police training.

Iraqi Economy and Oil Dependency

• Iraq's economy is heavily dependent on oil, with per capita income ranking 160th globally.
• Oil production and prices significantly impact the national budget and GDP.
• 2009 Budget Crisis:
  • The budget was reduced from $80 billion to $56.8 billion.
  • The 2009 budget expired without sufficient funding, leading to a deficit in 2010 of $19.6 billion.
  • This deficit hindered the development of the ISF and economic reconstruction efforts.
• Oil Bidding in 2009:
  • Major oil fields such as Rumaila, West Qurna 1, and Zubair were awarded to international consortia.
  • Some fields, such as East Baghdad and Middle Furat, received no bids, indicating potential issues in the bidding process.

Demographics and Social Challenges

• Iraq has a diverse population, with approximately 60-65% Shi'ite, 32-37% Sunni, and 3% Christian or other.
• Ethnic breakdown: 75-82% Arab, 13-20% Kurdish, and 3% other groups.
• The country faces significant unemployment and underemployment, with rates near 40%.
• The education and health systems are in crisis, with 2 million IDPs and over 1 million refugees outside the country.

Long-Term Challenges for 2010-2011 and Beyond

• Revitalizing the ISF and ensuring its effectiveness.
• Stabilizing the budget and improving economic and infrastructure development.
• Moving towards a more unified legal and security system.
• Addressing the issue of internal displacement and refugee support.
• Ensuring the sustainability of U.S.-Iraq relations, including military and economic aid.
• Implementing structural reforms in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and education.

Strategic and Regional Implications

• Iraq's oil wealth and its role in the regional economy are critical to its development.
• The report highlights the need for a negotiated political settlement to ensure long-term stability.
• Iraq's position in the global oil market and its potential to rise in per capita income and GDP are discussed, with a focus on economic reform and foreign investment incentives.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex challenges Iraq faced in the post-election period, including security instability, political fragmentation, economic dependency on oil, and the need for effective governance and development. It calls for continued U.S. support, internal reforms, and a balanced approach to addressing the diverse needs of Iraq's population and regional standing.