2016年-世界发展银行全球_Impact_of_Social_Assistance_on_Labor_Market_Mobility___The_Case_of_Turkey_24页_1mb

Summary of "Impact of Social Assistance on Labor Market Mobility: The Case of Turkey"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the impact of social assistance programs in Turkey on labor market mobility, specifically examining how these programs affect employment status and formality. The study uses a multinomial logit model and panel data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) to analyze both static and dynamic labor market transitions between 2006 and 2013.

Main Findings

• Social Assistance and Employment Status: Social assistance beneficiaries are significantly more likely to be unemployed or informally employed compared to non-beneficiaries. They are less likely to be formally employed.
• Informal Employment Transition: Among the unemployed, beneficiaries have a higher probability of transitioning to informal employment than non-beneficiaries.
• Activation Role of Social Assistance: Beneficiaries who are inactive are less likely to remain inactive compared to non-beneficiaries, suggesting that social assistance may serve an activation role rather than increasing dependency.
• Disincentive to Formal Employment: The paper concludes that the primary disincentive effect of social assistance is not on the decision to work, but rather on the decision to work formally. This is likely due to the structure of the social assistance system and the relatively low value of benefits provided.
• Comparative Analysis: The value of social assistance benefits in Turkey is relatively low (around 10% of pre-transfer income), which implies that the marginal effective tax rate for transitioning from benefits to formal employment is low. However, the presence of non-monetized benefits, such as the subsidized Green Card Program, may still influence labor market decisions.

Key Information

• Context: Turkey's social assistance system has expanded significantly over the past decade, especially after the 2001 economic crisis, with a focus on poverty reduction and social inclusion.
• System Overview: Social assistance in Turkey is highly targeted, with no universal cash benefits. Programs are based on income thresholds and categorical filters, such as age, disability, or household composition.
• Methodology: The study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the relationship between social assistance and labor market outcomes. It considers four labor market statuses: formal employed, informal employed, unemployed, and inactive.
• Data Source: The Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC), conducted annually by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) since 2006, is used to capture labor market transitions and static employment status.
• Sample Size: The 2013 cross-section contains 47,827 observations for individuals aged 14 and above.
• Panel Data Utilization: The study combines multiple SILC panels to maximize sample variation and overcome the issue of limited mobility in the labor market, which makes it difficult to identify statistically significant relationships with small sample sizes.

Policy Implications

• The design of social assistance programs in Turkey may have unintended consequences on labor market formality, rather than on the decision to work.
• There is a need for policies that align incentives with formal employment to ensure that social assistance does not discourage participation in the formal sector.
• The activation role of social assistance suggests that it may help individuals re-enter the labor market, which is an important consideration for policy design.

Conclusion

While social assistance in Turkey may not significantly reduce the incentive to work, it appears to have a notable impact on the formality of employment. The findings suggest that future social assistance programs should focus on encouraging formal employment through better design and integration with labor market policies.