2002年-世界发展银行全球_Labor_Market_in_Postwar_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina___How_to_Encourage_Businesses_to_Create_Jobs_and_Increase_Worker_Mobility_142页_7mb

Summary of the Labor Market in Postwar Bosnia and Herzegovina

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the labor market in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in the postwar period, focusing on the challenges of job creation and worker mobility. It outlines the economic and social implications of the transition from a socialist system to a market economy, highlighting the structural issues that hinder labor market dynamism.

Main Findings

1. Postwar Economic and Labor Market Trends

• The Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995 ended the war, leading to a period of rapid economic growth, exceeding 10% annually from 1996 to 2001.
• Despite this growth, GDP per capita in 2000 was only 48% of its prewar level, and employment levels remained significantly lower than prewar levels.
• A large share of employment shifted into the informal sector, and unemployment remained very high.
• Labor force participation was low by international standards, particularly among women, with a participation rate of 28% in 2001 compared to 62% for men.

2. Demographic and Migration Trends

• The war caused massive migration, with 2.3 million people displaced or killed.
• Postwar migration trends have not fully restored the prewar demographic balance.
• Migration patterns have influenced labor market outcomes, including discrimination and limited internal mobility.

3. Job Creation and Destruction

• Job flows in BiH were low compared to other transition economies, with job creation and destruction rates lagging behind.
• In 1997-99, firms with more than 10 workers created 4.2 jobs and destroyed 5.3 jobs per 100 existing jobs.
• Job flows were even lower for firms with more than 100 workers.
• Private enterprises created and destroyed more jobs than public enterprises, suggesting a preference for flexibility in the private sector.

4. Worker Mobility

• Worker mobility rates were modest, with accession and separation rates in 2000 at 18%, slightly above prewar levels.
• Female labor force participation remained among the lowest in the region, with a participation rate of 28% in 2001.
• Young workers and unskilled workers were over-represented in the informal sector and unemployment, indicating a skills gap and limited access to formal employment.

5. Institutional Barriers

• The rigid wage setting system and outdated employment protection legislation were major impediments to labor market dynamism.
• The 2000 labor reforms improved the alignment of labor laws with market needs, reducing barriers to job creation and mobility.
• The revised unemployment insurance program provides modest income support, which is comparable to other transition countries.

6. Informal Sector

• The informal sector accounted for 36% of total employment in 2001, with the majority of workers in agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.
• Most informal workers were employed by private employers, with a significant portion being self-employed or contributing family members.
• The high share of informal employment among young and unskilled workers suggests structural issues in the labor market.

Key Issues and Recommendations

1. Job Creation and Worker Mobility

• The labor market is characterized by low dynamism, with slow job creation and high job destruction.
• The report emphasizes the need to improve labor market flexibility to support economic growth and employment generation.
• Structural reforms, including fiscal and financial sector changes, are essential to facilitate job creation and worker mobility.

2. Institutional Reforms

• The 2000 labor reforms have improved the alignment of labor laws with market needs, but the rigid wage system remains a barrier.
• There is a need to reform wage determination mechanisms to allow for more flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions.

3. SME Development

• SMEs are seen as a potential engine for job creation and economic growth.
• Barriers to SME development include lack of trust, regulatory constraints, and limited access to finance.
• Enhancing trust and reducing regulatory burdens could help promote SME growth and employment.

4. Unemployment and Labor Market Policies

• Registered unemployment figures may overstate the true level of unemployment, as many registered individuals are not actually unemployed.
• The unemployment insurance program, while modest, is a step in the right direction and could be expanded to better support the unemployed.
• The report recommends better monitoring and enforcement to prevent distortions in labor market incentives.

Conclusion

The labor market in postwar Bosnia and Herzegovina is characterized by low dynamism, significant informal employment, and structural rigidities that hinder job creation and worker mobility. Institutional reforms, particularly in labor laws and wage setting, are crucial for improving labor market efficiency and equity. The report highlights the importance of supporting SME development and addressing the skills gap to enhance economic growth and employment opportunities.