2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_Targeted_Social_Assistance_on_Labor_Market_in_Georgia___A_Regression_Discontinuity_Approach_51页_1mb

Summary of The Impact of Targeted Social Assistance on Labor Market in Georgia: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Core Content

This report evaluates the impact of Georgia's Targeted Social Assistance (TSA) program on labor market outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). The TSA program provides monthly subsidies to families below a welfare threshold, identified through a proxy means test (PMT). The study combines a new household survey and administrative data to analyze the causal effect of the program on labor force participation, particularly among women.

Main Findings

• TSA generates work disincentives, especially among women.
  • On average, women who receive TSA are 7 to 11 percentage points less likely to be economically active than those in non-recipient households.
  • This is a large effect, given that the labor participation rate among women in the sample is 60.5%.
  • The disincentive effect is concentrated among young women (15-29), married women, and women with children.
• Men are not significantly affected by the TSA program.
• Potential and reservation wages suggest that improving access to training and upskilling for rural women could help increase their labor force participation.
• Complementary services such as child and elderly care may reduce the disincentive effects of TSA among women.
• Policy implications:
  • Careful consideration is needed before increasing the generosity of the TSA program.
  • Expanding coverage rather than increasing generosity may be more beneficial.
  • Combining social assistance with job search or training requirements could help mitigate work disincentives.

Key Information

• TSA Program Overview:
  • Launched in 2006.
  • Administered by the Social Services Agency (SSA), part of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Social Affairs (MoHLSA).
  • Uses a proxy means test (PMT) to determine eligibility, based on over 100 welfare indicators.
  • The PMT score threshold is 57,000 points, with households scoring below this receiving benefits.
• Program Generosity:
  • In 2011, the average monthly benefit per household was 78 GEL (US$47), which accounted for 26% of post-transfer household consumption.
  • In 2013, the base benefit was doubled to 60 GEL per month, and the additional benefit per family member was increased to 48 GEL.
• Labor Market Context in Georgia:
  • Only 55% of adults (15+) are employed, down from 59% in 2001.
  • Unemployment is high at 14%, and labor force participation is 64% overall.
  • Women are less likely to be economically active than men, with a 14 percentage point difference in participation rates.
  • Agriculture dominates female employment, with 57% of working women employed in this sector.
  • 38% of working women and 20% of working men are family workers, mostly unpaid.
  • 51% of working women work part-time, compared to 37% of working men.
• Disincentive Effects:
  • 6% of non-recipient households indicate that they would stop working if they received TSA.
  • 56% of TSA recipient households state that both men and women would start looking for work if the household experienced a 20% income loss.
  • 17% of recipient households indicate that only women would start looking for work, while 27% indicate that only men would.
• Methodology:
  • The study uses a regression discontinuity design to exploit the sharp discontinuity in treatment around the PMT score threshold.
  • A new survey of approximately 2000 households was conducted, along with administrative data.
  • The RDD approach allows for a quasi-experimental analysis of the program's impact.

Policy Recommendations

• Expand coverage rather than increasing generosity to avoid work disincentives.
• Strengthen complementary services such as child and elderly care to support working women.
• Improve access to training and upskilling for rural women to enhance their labor market participation.
• Integrate job search or activation requirements into the TSA program to promote labor market engagement.
• Consider combining social assistance with labor market interventions to address both poverty and employment issues.

Conclusion

The report highlights the complex relationship between social assistance programs and labor market outcomes. While TSA provides crucial support to the poor, it may also reduce work incentives, particularly among women, due to its generosity and targeting mechanism. The findings suggest that policy design should take into account the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of beneficiaries and consider complementary measures to ensure that social assistance supports, rather than hinders, labor market participation.