20180704-广发证券_香港_-2H18_A-Share_Auto_Sector_Outlook_3页_391kb

报告摘要

2H18 A-Share Auto Sector Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2H18 A-Share Auto Sector Outlook provides an analysis of the auto industry in China, focusing on passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). It highlights the sector's current valuation, market trends, and investment opportunities, while also addressing potential risks.

Main Points

1. Auto Sector Valuation and Performance

Valuation Premium: A-share auto stocks have been trading at a valuation premium compared to international peers. The TTM P/E ratio of the SW auto sector dropped from approximately 19x–20x in early 2018 to 16x–17x in late June.
Discounted Leaders: Only a few leading companies are at a discount compared to their international counterparts.
External Shocks: Strong external shocks since March have contributed to the sector's decline, but the outlook suggests a potential recovery.

2. Passenger Vehicles

Growth Expectations: Full-year 2018 passenger vehicle wholesale volume growth is expected to be between -3% and +3%.
Market Consolidation: Intensifying competition is expected to lead to market consolidation, similar to trends observed in the US and Japan.
Industrial Policies: Policies are encouraging a shift towards high-quality companies and the elimination of outdated capacity.
Investment Focus: Companies with strong R&D and capital financing capabilities are likely to benefit.

3. Heavy-Duty Trucks

Sales Performance: Heavy-duty truck sales in May 2018 grew by 15.2% YoY, far exceeding market expectations of a 20% decline at the end of 2017.
Pessimistic Consensus: The market consensus on heavy-duty truck performance is overly pessimistic.
Investment Opportunity: Heavy-duty truck stocks are expected to see growth in both earnings and valuations in 2018.
Long-Term Outlook: While long-term sales growth may be modest, there is still room for growth in output value and profit margins.

4. New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)

Policy Shift: The focus of policy guidance is shifting from quantity to quality, with the withdrawal of subsidies and the implementation of a double-scoring system.
Market-Driven Development: NEV development is expected to be more market-driven, with competition centered on product quality and market drivers.
Dual Offerings: Companies with strong offerings in both traditional and new energy vehicles are more likely to thrive.

Key Investment Highlights

Passenger Vehicles: Recommend blue-chip companies with solid earnings growth, low valuations, and high dividend payouts. Highlighted companies include:
- Huayu Automotive Systems (600741 CH)
- SAIC Motor (600104 CH)
Heavy-Duty Trucks: Emphasize the sector as a key opportunity for investment in 2H18. Highlighted companies include:
- CNHTC Jinan Truck (000951 CH)
- Weichai Power (000338 CH)
- Weifu High-Technology (000581 CH)

Risks

Macroeconomic Growth: Lower than expected growth could negatively impact the sector.
Policy Development: Delays or less than expected policy advancements may affect industry dynamics.
Auto Industry Growth: Lower-than-anticipated growth in the auto industry may lead to underperformance.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Rating	Definition
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Analyst Certification

The research analyst(s) certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal views on the companies or relevant securities.
No part of their remuneration was directly or indirectly connected with specific recommendations in the report.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliated companies do not hold shares in the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the mentioned companies and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed.
Investment involves risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Recipients should consult professional advice before making investment decisions.

Copyright

This report is copyrighted by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited.
Unauthorized use or reproduction of the content is prohibited without prior written consent.

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