20230608-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Firing_on_all_cylinders_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Reiterate BUY with a target price of HK$16.2, reflecting a 65.1% upside from the current price of HK$9.81, based on a 19x 2023E P/E multiple and expected earnings growth of 33% CAGR for 2023E-2025E.

SANY International maintains a positive stance due to strategic expansion, innovation in product development, and strong management commitment.
Upcoming earnings forecast revised up by 22-43% for 2023E-2025E, driven by hybrid mining trucks, CCMU, lithium battery equipment, and petroleum equipment from acquisition.
Focus on delivering growth through diversification across segments and continuous new product launches.

Hybrid Mining Trucks: New model (150-ton payload) targets >100 units in 2023E, with revenue contribution projected at HK$1.5bn in 2024E. Demand is strong, with ASP ~RMB8.4mn and gross margin potential of 30% (direct sales).
Wide-Body Trucks: Production capacity of 500 units/month, ASPs of RMB0.9mn (China) and >RMB1.0mn (overseas). Sales volume in 4M23 reached 1,500 units, contributing 36% to full-year forecast; ASP expected to rise with second-gen and electric models.
CCMU (Coal Mining Machinery and Equipment): Driven by strong orders for hydraulic support; revenue growth of 40% YoY in 4M23, with margin expansion.
Road Header: Capacity ~80 units/month; sales of ~340 units in 4M23, expected to reach ~945 units full-year 2023, with ASP growth through intelligent transformations.

Acquiring Sany Petroleum Intelligent Equipment (expected approval), expanding into oil & gas fracturing equipment; leverages R&D capabilities for electric and intelligent products, targeting 25% and 20% earnings growth in 2023E and 2024E.

Revisions: 2023E-2025E adjusted net profit forecast up to HK$3,875 million, with CAGR of 33%.
Key financial metrics: PE from 17.7x to 11.5x, PB from 2.6x to 2.4x, dividend yield increasing from 1.7% to 4.3%.
Debt-to-equity low at 0.0x in 2025E; ROE increasing from 17.8% to 24.4% over the period.