20260728-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Expect_2Q26_net_profit_to_-10_YoY_5页_744kb

SANY International (631 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

SANY International, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is a leading player in the China capital goods sector, with a diversified business portfolio that includes mining equipment, logistics machinery, port machinery, and emerging sectors such as solar power and hydrogen. The firm has shown strong growth in revenue and adjusted net profit over the past few years, with a focus on expanding its presence in the mining truck market globally.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Forecast

• 2Q26 Net Profit: Expected to decline by ~10% YoY to RMB600mn, due to a high base effect.
• 2026E Adjusted Net Profit: RMB2,393.2mn (up 29.3% YoY).
• 2027E Adjusted Net Profit: RMB3,368.1mn (up 40.7% YoY).
• 2028E Adjusted Net Profit: RMB4,243.1mn (up 26.0% YoY).

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• 2026E: RMB0.74
• 2027E: RMB1.04
• 2028E: RMB1.31

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book (P/B)

• 2026E P/E: 8.9x (equivalent to the peak level since 2017)
• 2026E P/B: 1.5x
• 2027E P/E: 6.4x
• 2027E P/B: 1.3x
• 2028E P/E: 5.0x
• 2028E P/B: 1.1x

Dividend Yield

• 2026E: 6.2%
• 2027E: 7.9%
• 2028E: 9.9%

Return on Equity (ROE)

• 2026E: 17.3%
• 2027E: 21.6%
• 2028E: 23.7%

Main Points and Key Information

• 2Q26 Performance: Net profit is expected to decline by ~10% YoY due to a high base effect, but mining truck sales are anticipated to partially offset the decline.
• Solar Power Segment: Expected to remain under pressure with a segment loss of RMB100-200mn in 2Q26, primarily due to non-cash depreciation.
• Earnings Revisions: The analyst has trimmed 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E earnings forecasts by 12%, 9%, and 7% respectively, due to lower road header sales assumptions and higher solar losses.
• Target Price: Revised to HK$17.10 from HK$18.90, reflecting the 20x 2026E P/E ratio.
• Current Price: HK$7.63, indicating a potential upside of 124.1% from the current price to the new target price.
• Shareholding Structure:
  • Sany Heavy Equipment: 64.9%
  • Free float: 33.9%
• Share Performance:
  • 1-month: +15.4%
  • 3-months: -31.3%
  • 6-months: -36.4%

Key Risks

1. Further Weakness in Coal Mining Activities in China: Could negatively impact the coal mining equipment segment.
2. Higher-than-Expected Operating Loss in Emerging Businesses: Especially in the solar power segment.
3. Cost Inflation Due to Elevated Commodity Prices: Affects profitability across various segments.

Revenue and Profit Growth

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY
• Reason: Despite lower forecasts, the analyst remains positive on SANYI's structural penetration of large mining trucks in overseas markets.
• Outlook: The company is expected to benefit from the upcycle of metals and continued growth in mining truck sales.

Valuation Metrics

Financial Summary

Income Statement

• Revenue: Rises from RMB20,278 in 2023A to RMB44,013 in 2028E.
• Gross Profit: Expected to grow from RMB5,447 in 2023A to RMB10,524 in 2028E.
• EBITDA: Projected to increase from RMB2,751 in 2023A to RMB6,463 in 2028E.
• EBIT: From RMB2,226 in 2023A to RMB5,335 in 2028E.
• Net Profit: From RMB1,839 in 2023A to RMB4,243 in 2028E.
• Adjusted Net Profit: From RMB1,929 in 2023A to RMB4,243 in 2028E.

Balance Sheet

• Total Assets: Increase from RMB34,963 in 2023A to RMB60,617 in 2028E.
• Total Liabilities: Rise from RMB23,425 in 2023A to RMB41,639 in 2028E.
• Shareholders Equity: Increase from RMB11,589 in 2023A to RMB19,150 in 2028E.
• Current Ratio: From 1.3 in 2023A to 1.4 in 2028E, indicating improved liquidity.
• Net Debt to Equity: From 0.2 in 2023A to -0.0 in 2028E, suggesting a stronger capital structure.

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views.
• No part of the analyst's compensation is related to the specific views expressed in this report.
• The analyst has not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to its issue and will not trade for 3 business days after.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the market.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in line with the market.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market.

Important Disclosures

• The report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• CMBIGM does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
• The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or published without prior written consent.