> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # SANY International (631 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Overview SANY International (631 HK) is a capital goods company that has announced its after-tax profit for 2025 is expected to grow by $50–73\%$ YoY to RMB1.6–1.85bn, primarily due to a significant reduction in impairment losses. However, on a recurring basis (excluding impairment), the profit is forecasted to be $-10\%$ to $+4\%$ YoY to RMB-1.67 to -19.2bn, which is a negative earnings surprise. This is notably below both the analyst's estimate and the Bloomberg consensus. The earnings decline is attributed to one-off expenses related to port equipment and higher-than-expected operating expenses in the solar power business. Despite the weak performance in 2025, the company is expected to have a strong start in 2026, driven by increased orders for mining trucks and improved visibility in the port equipment segment. Additionally, the oil & gas equipment segment is anticipated to benefit from the current high oil and gas prices. The company's target price is set at HK$20.60, based on a 20x 2026E P/E ratio, which reflects the rising earnings visibility from the commodity upcycle. ## Key Financial Highlights (2022–2027) ### Revenue Growth (YoY) - **2022A**: 52.4% - **2023A**: 30.5% - **2024A**: 8.0% - **2025E**: 12.1% - **2026E**: 21.1% - **2027E**: 16.9% ### Adjusted Net Profit Growth (YoY) - **2022A**: 53.2% - **2023A**: 15.9% - **2024A**: (4.1)% - **2025E**: 23.6% - **2026E**: 30.8% - **2027E**: 23.3% ### Earnings Per Share (EPS) - **2023A**: 0.58 - **2024A**: 0.71 - **2025E**: 0.92 - **2026E**: 1.13 - **2027E**: 1.13 (consensus) ### P/E Ratio - **2023A**: 17.3 - **2024A**: 30.5 - **2025E**: 14.8 - **2026E**: 11.4 - **2027E**: 9.3 ### P/B Ratio - **2023A**: 2.9 - **2024A**: 2.8 - **2025E**: 2.5 - **2026E**: 2.2 - **2027E**: 1.9 ### Dividend Yield - **2023A**: 1.7% - **2024A**: 2.6% - **2025E**: 2.7% - **2026E**: 3.5% - **2027E**: 4.3% ### Return on Equity (ROE) - **2022A**: 17.8% - **2023A**: 9.3% - **2025E**: 17.7% - **2026E**: 20.4% - **2027E**: 21.7% ### Net Gearing - **2022A**: 21.2% - **2023A**: 17.4% - **2024A**: 12.3% - **2025E**: 6.7% - **2026E**: (2.3)% ## Key Business Segments and Performance ### Mining Trucks - Mining trucks are expected to show strong growth in 2026, with revenue forecasted to reach RMB4,893mn, up from RMB4,100mn in 2025. - Large-size mining trucks and wide-body trucks are also projected to grow significantly in 2026 and beyond. ### Port Equipment - Small-size port machinery revenue is projected to increase in 2026, and the company has improved visibility in this segment. ### Oil & Gas Equipment - The oil & gas segment is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices, contributing positively to the company's performance. ### Solar Power - Solar power revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2025 and 2026, though the growth rate may slow in 2027. ### Lithium Battery - Lithium battery revenue is on an upward trajectory, with notable growth in 2025 and 2026. ### After Sales Service - After sales service revenue is expected to grow steadily, showing a consistent increase from 2022 to 2027. ## Risks 1. **Weakening coal mining activities in China** may impact the company's performance. 2. **Slowdown in emerging businesses**, particularly in the solar power and hydrogen segments, could affect future growth. 3. **Cost inflation** due to elevated commodity prices may put pressure on margins and profitability. ## Analyst Rating and Target Price - **Rating**: BUY - **Target Price (TP)**: HK$20.60 - **Up/Downside**: 72.2% - **Current Price**: HK$11.96 ## Shareholding and Market Data - **Market Cap (HK$ mn)**: 38,645.7 - **Average 3-month turnover (HK$ mn)**: 159.2 - **52-week High/Low (HK$)**: 15.97 / 4.42 - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: 3,231.2 - **Shareholding Structure**: - **Sany Heavy Equipment**: 64.9% - **Free float**: 33.9% ## Share Performance (12-Month) - **1-Month**: -20.2% - **3-Month**: 43.2% - **6-Month**: 68.5% ## Conclusion SANY International is positioned to benefit from the commodity upcycle, particularly in the oil & gas and mining equipment segments. While the company faced a negative earnings surprise in 2025 due to impairment losses and one-off expenses, the outlook for 2026 is more positive with strong orders and improved visibility. The analyst maintains a BUY rating, suggesting potential for a return of over 15% in the next 12 months. However, risks such as weakening coal mining activities and cost inflation remain. The company's financial metrics, including P/E and P/B ratios, indicate a potential undervaluation based on 2026 earnings expectations.