20220114-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2022.1.14_11页_214kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary: January 2022

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the 2021/22 global and U.S. oil crop outlook, focusing on soybeans, canola, sunflowerseed, flaxseed, cottonseed, and peanuts. It outlines production estimates, supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and export forecasts.

Main Points

Global Soybean Outlook

Production: Global soybean production for 2021/22 is estimated at 372.56 million metric tons, a 9.2 million ton decrease from the previous year due to lower yields in South America.
Stocks: Global ending stocks are projected to fall by 6.8 million tons to 95.2 million tons, the lowest since 2016/17.
U.S. Production: U.S. soybean production is forecasted at 4.44 billion bushels, a 10.29 million bushel increase from the prior forecast, with record yields in several states.
Supply: Despite higher production, the expected supply is 53 million bushels lower than 2020/21 due to lower beginning stocks.
Prices: Soybean prices increased by $0.30 per bushel in November, and soybean meal prices jumped by $41.00 per short ton in December.
Exports: U.S. soybean exports are forecasted at 2.05 million bushels, with global export forecasts adjusted due to reduced South American production.

U.S. Minor Oilseeds Outlook

Canola

Production: U.S. canola production is estimated at 2.72 billion pounds, a 733 million pound decrease from the previous year due to poor yields in North Dakota.
Crush: U.S. canola crush is forecasted at 3.59 billion pounds, with ending stocks at 175 million pounds.
Prices: Canola seed prices are at a record high of $32.00 per hundredweight, while canola meal and oil prices are also elevated.

Sunflowerseed

Production: U.S. sunflowerseed production is reduced by 36 percent to 1,903 million pounds, with 15 percent lower yields and 25 percent fewer planted acres.
Prices: Average sunflowerseed prices are $31.55 per hundredweight, up from previous years.
Usage: Domestic sunflowerseed oil consumption is forecasted to reach a record 725 million pounds, leading to a decline in oil exports to 85 million pounds.

Flaxseed

Production: U.S. flaxseed production decreased to 2.7 million bushels, a 5.7 million bushel decline from the previous year due to drought and reduced harvested acres.
Prices: Season average flaxseed prices increased by $16.00 per bushel to $27.00 per bushel.

Cottonseed

Production: U.S. cottonseed production is forecasted at 5.38 million short tons, a 199,000 short ton decrease from the prior forecast but 21 percent higher than 2020/21.
Crush: Crush is forecasted at 1.5 million short tons, with exports slightly reduced to 250,000 short tons.
Prices: Cottonseed prices are expected to reach $245.00 per short ton.

Peanuts

Production: U.S. peanut production is forecasted at 6.4 billion pounds, a 2 percent increase from the previous forecast and 4 percent higher than last year.
Yields: Yields increased by 323 pounds per acre to 4,135 pounds per acre.
Supply: Peanut supply is 75 million pounds higher than 2020/21.
Exports: Exports are expected to decline by 8 percent to 1.3 billion pounds.
Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are forecasted to rise to 2.25 billion pounds from 1.97 billion pounds in the previous year.

International Outlook

South America

Brazil: Soybean production is reduced by 5 million metric tons to 139 million, due to dry weather in southern Brazil. Exports are unchanged at 94 million metric tons, but local year exports are reduced to 90 million metric tons.
Argentina: Soybean production is reduced by 3 million metric tons to 46.5 million, with yield decline to 2.87 tons per hectare. Exports and crush are also reduced.
Paraguay: Soybean production is reduced by 1.5 million metric tons to 8.5 million, with lower harvested area and yield. Exports are forecasted to fall to 5.25 million metric tons.

Malaysia

Palm Production: Malaysian palm production is revised down to 18.7 million tons, due to abnormal weather and labor issues. However, it is still 5 percent higher than 2020/21.
Exports: Palm oil exports are forecasted to fall to 16.22 million metric tons, with ending stocks remaining stable at 1.72 million metric tons.

India

Rapeseed Production: Indian farmers are expected to harvest 8.3 million hectares, an increase of 1.6 million hectares from last year.
Production Forecast: Rapeseed production is revised up to 9.5 million metric tons from 8.85 million.
Palm Oil Imports: Due to increased rapeseed production, the palm oil import forecast is reduced by 150,000 tons to 8.45 million tons.

Key Information

Global soybean stocks are at their lowest since 2016/17.
U.S. soybean supply is 53 million bushels lower than 2020/21 due to lower beginning stocks.
Canola production is significantly reduced due to North Dakota's poor yields.
Sunflowerseed production is down 36 percent due to drought and lower acreage.
Flaxseed production is down 5.7 million bushels, with higher prices.
Cottonseed production is up 21 percent from 2020/21, but crush is slightly lower.
Peanut production is up 4 percent, with higher yields and increased domestic consumption.
Brazil is expected to maintain its leadership in global soybean exports, but local year exports are reduced.
Malaysia faces reduced palm oil production and exports, but ending stocks remain stable.
India is expected to produce a bumper rapeseed crop, impacting palm oil imports.

Conclusion

The 2021/22 oil crop outlook highlights reduced production in several key regions, driven by weather conditions and market dynamics, which have increased prices and affected trade balances. The U.S. is experiencing record soybean yields but lower beginning stocks, leading to tighter supply. Meanwhile, India's increased rapeseed production is expected to reduce palm oil imports. Overall, the report underscores the volatility in global oilseed markets and the importance of weather and trade conditions in shaping supply and demand.