20151113-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_2015.11.13_11页_417kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-15K)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global oil crops for the 2015/16 marketing year, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, peanuts, and other oilseeds. It outlines production forecasts, export and import expectations, and domestic usage trends, while also addressing the impact of weather conditions and market dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Record Yield Forecast: The U.S. soybean yield for 2015/16 is forecast at 48.3 bushels per acre, up from 47.2 bushels in September and 47.5 bushels in 2014/15. This leads to a record production forecast of 3.981 billion bushels, up 93 million bushels from the previous forecast.
• Export Forecast: U.S. soybean exports for 2015/16 are forecast at 1.715 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from the prior forecast, driven by improved import demand outlook, especially from China.
• Domestic Crush Forecast: Domestic crush is forecast at 1.89 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels, based on a better outlook for soybean meal exports.
• Season-Ending Stocks: The forecast for season-ending stocks increased by 40 million bushels to 465 million, reflecting the larger production gain.
• Farm Price Outlook: The U.S. season-average farm price range for soybeans was lowered to $8.15–$9.65 per bushel, a decrease of 25 cents.

Soybean Oil Outlook

• Season-Ending Stocks: U.S. season-ending soybean oil stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 2.295 billion pounds, up 265 million pounds from the previous forecast, mainly due to higher beginning stocks.
• Export Forecast: Soybean oil exports are forecast to increase by 300 million pounds to 2.3 billion pounds, driven by strong export sales to Latin America and a 9-year low in prices.
• Domestic Use Forecast: Domestic use is forecast at 19.25 billion pounds, down 300 million pounds from the previous forecast due to lower consumption levels in 2014/15.
• Average Price Forecast: The average price for soybean oil is forecast to remain at 27.5–30.5 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Peanut Outlook

• Lower Yield Forecast: U.S. peanut yield for 2015/16 is forecast at 3,902 pounds per acre, slightly below the 2014/15 yield of 3,923 pounds per acre.
• Harvest Delays: Due to excessive rainfall from Hurricane Joaquin, the peanut harvest in South Carolina is significantly delayed, with only 56% harvested by November 8 compared to the 5-year average of 93%.
• Production Forecast: The 2015/16 U.S. peanut crop is forecast at 6.173 billion pounds, down 150 million pounds from the previous forecast, but still above 2014/15 production.
• Domestic Use and Exports: Domestic peanut use is trimmed to 3.01 billion pounds, and exports are forecast at 1.12 billion pounds, both down 2% from the previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are expected to surge to 2.87 billion pounds, up from 2.1 billion in 2014/15.

Global Outlook

• China's Soybean Imports: China's soybean imports are forecast at 80.5 million metric tons, up 1.5 million metric tons from the previous forecast, and up from 78.4 million in 2014/15.
• Argentina's Soybean Exports: Argentina's soybean exports are forecast at 10.8 million metric tons, a 6-year high, up 1 million tons from the previous forecast.
• Brazil's Soybean Exports: Brazil's soybean exports are forecast at 57 million metric tons, up 550,000 tons from the previous forecast.
• Global Rapeseed Supplies: Global rapeseed production is forecast at 67.1 million metric tons, up 860,000 tons from the previous forecast, mainly due to a larger crop in Canada.
• India's Soybean Production: India's soybean production is forecast at 9.5 million metric tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous forecast, due to poor yields and adverse weather conditions.

Key Information

• Weather Impact: Favorable weather in the Midwest accelerated soybean harvesting, while excessive rainfall in the Southeast delayed peanut harvests.
• Market Dynamics: Strong export demand and lower prices have influenced soybean and soybean oil trade, while lower production in India has affected its soybean meal and oil exports.
• Global Trade: Improved global supply conditions, particularly in Canada and Brazil, have had a positive impact on international trade, with increased exports from these regions.
• Price Trends: Prices for soybeans and soybean oil have been affected by production levels, export demand, and global market conditions.
• Supply and Demand: The increased production and improved export outlook have led to higher season-ending stocks in the U.S., while domestic use has seen some reductions.

Tables Overview

• Table 1: Annual U.S. soybean supply and disappearance data for the 2015/16 marketing year, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance data, including production, imports, and exports.
• Table 3: U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance data, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 4: U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance data, including production, imports, and exports.
• Table 5: U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance data, including production and exports.
• Table 6: U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance data, including production and exports.
• Table 7: U.S. peanut supply and disappearance data, including production, imports, and exports.
• Table 8: U.S. oilseed prices received by farmers, including soybeans, cottonseed, sunflowerseed, canola, and peanuts.
• Table 9: U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices, including soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sunflowerseed oil, canola oil, peanut oil, corn oil, lard, and edible tallow.
• Table 10: U.S. oilseed meal prices, including soybean meal, cottonseed meal, sunflowerseed meal, peanut meal, and canola meal.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 U.S. oil crops outlook is marked by record soybean yields and production, increased export forecasts, and a positive outlook for global trade. However, the delayed harvest of peanuts due to adverse weather conditions has led to lower production and higher ending stocks. The report highlights the importance of weather, production levels, and international demand in shaping the market outlook for oil crops.