2010年-世界发展银行全球_Forecasting_Migrant_Remittances_during_the_Global_Financial_Crisis_20页_639kb

Summary of "Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis"

Core Content

This working paper by Sanket Mohapatra and Dilip Ratha from the World Bank explores the methodology for forecasting migrant remittances during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which began in August 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The paper addresses the growing importance of remittances for developing countries and the need for reliable forecasts to inform policy decisions.

Main Points

• Importance of Remittances: Migrant remittances have become a crucial and stable source of external finance for developing countries. In 2009, they reached $307 billion, a 5.5% decline from 2008. These flows are often counter-cyclical and help stabilize recipient economies, reduce poverty, and improve financial services access.

• Determinants of Remittances: Remittances are influenced by several factors:

  • Migrant Stocks: The number of migrants in destination countries is a key determinant.
  • Income Levels: Both host and origin country incomes affect remittance flows.
  • Remittance Costs: Lower costs can increase flows, while higher costs may lead to informal channels.
  • Exchange Rates: Fluctuations can affect the value of remittances in local currency terms.
  • Migration Duration and Vintage: New migrants may send more remittances initially, but may be constrained by financial obligations.
  • Political Factors: Immigration controls and quotas are political decisions that are difficult to model.

• Forecasting Methodology: The paper introduces a simple model to forecast remittances based on:

  • Bilateral Remittance Matrix: Using data from Ratha and Shaw (2007) to estimate remittance flows.
  • Income Projections: Utilizing the World Bank and IMF's medium-term GDP forecasts.
  • Elasticity Approach: Considering the elasticity of remittances to host and home country incomes, and adjusting for the post-crisis environment.

Key Information

• Model Equation:
  $$
  R _ {i j} = f (M _ {i j}, y _ {i}, y _ {j})
  $$
  Where $M_{ij}$ is the migrant stock, $y_i$ is the per capita income of the origin country, and $y_j$ is the per capita income of the destination country.

• Remittance Intensity:
  $$
  I _ {i j} = R _ {i j} / Y _ {j} = r _ {i j} I _ {j}
  $$
  Remittance intensity is calculated as the ratio of remittances to the GDP of the destination country.

• Forecasting Approaches:

  1. Remittance Matrix-Based Approach: Assumes remittances grow at the same rate as migrant incomes in the host country.
  2. Elasticity-Based Approach: Recognizes that remittances may grow faster or slower than incomes, with an elasticity of 0.5 for the post-crisis period.

• Forecast Outcomes:

  • The model predicted a 6% decline in remittances to developing countries in 2009, which matched actual data.
  • The decline was less severe than other private resource flows like foreign direct investment.
  • Some regions (East Asia & Pacific, Middle East and North Africa) experienced smaller declines, while others (Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & the Caribbean) saw larger ones.

• Limitations and Recommendations:

  • The model does not account for return migration, exchange rate movements, or shifts between formal and informal remittance channels.
  • High-frequency data on migration and remittance flows is needed for better accuracy.
  • Improved data quality and more sophisticated models are required to enhance forecasting capabilities.

Conclusion

The GFC highlighted the need for forecasting remittances as they are a vital source of income for many developing countries. While the proposed model performed reasonably well, there are still significant gaps in data and methodology that need to be addressed to improve future forecasts.

Key Authors and Affiliations

• Sanket Mohapatra and Dilip Ratha
  • Migration and Remittances Unit, Development Prospects Group, World Bank

References

• Ratha, Dilip, and William Shaw (2007)
• World Bank (2005, 2009, 2010a, 2010b)
• Gibson, McKenzie, and Rohorua (2006)
• Glytsos (1997)
• Freund and Spatafora (2008)
• Chami, Hakura, and Montiel (2009)
• Yang and Choi (2007)
• Yang (2008)
• Frankel (2009)
• Faini (2007)
• Adams (2009)
• Barajas et al. (2010)
• Bollard et al. (2009)
• Clemens (2009)

Annex 1

• Credible national data on bilateral remittances are limited.
• The paper uses a methodology based on migrant stocks and income levels to estimate bilateral remittance flows.
• The model assumes that migrant stocks remain constant in the short term, and forecasts are based on income projections and remittance intensities.