2019年全球消费者健康调查（英文版）_39页_432kb

Global Consumer Health Survey 2019 Summary

Core Content

This report presents the findings of the 2019 US Consumer Health Survey, conducted by Barclays, focusing on consumer purchasing habits and attitudes towards OTC (over-the-counter) medications and dietary supplements. It highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities in the consumer health sector, particularly for European and US-based companies, with a focus on brand loyalty, digital channel penetration, and corporate restructuring.

Main Points

• Consumer Health Landscape: The sector continues to experience modest growth, with EU companies like GSK, SAN, and BAYN dominating the OTC space. However, digital channel penetration remains a risk, particularly for investors.

• Brand Loyalty and Trust: Despite digital pressures, brand loyalty and trust remain strong. Most consumers (35%) prefer national brands, while 41% are indifferent. Trust is a key factor in brand preference, with 47% of respondents citing it as a primary reason for choosing national brands.

• Digital Purchasing Trends: Online purchasing of OTC products has slightly declined, with 48% of respondents indicating they buy no or few products online. Trust and delivery time are still the main barriers to digital adoption. Amazon remains a potential risk or opportunity, as 20% of respondents already buy OTC via the platform, and 48% are open to considering it.

• Corporate Activity and Strategic Moves: Several companies are rethinking their strategies, with GSK and RB being considered for potential spin-offs of their OTC divisions. GSK's spin-off is expected in H2 2022, and this could provide an opportunity for investors. RB is also planning to split the company, which may affect its OTC business.

• Investor Sentiment and Valuation: The report provides valuation insights for key players, including GSK (EW PT€16), SAN (EW PT€80), and BAYN (OW PT€85). Procter & Gamble (OW PT $134) and others are also evaluated, with mixed results on brand preference and digital adoption.

Key Survey Findings

• Brand Preference:

  • 35% of consumers prefer national brands.
  • 41% are indifferent.
  • 24% prefer store/generic brands.
  • 41% have no preference for either.

• Digital Intent:

  • 13% of respondents purchase most of their OTC products online.
  • 48% purchase no or very few items online.
  • 50% reported digital OTC purchases in the past 6 months, down from 50% to 44%.

• Effectiveness and Trust:

  • Effectiveness is a key driver for 39% of consumers.
  • Trust is cited by 47% of respondents as a reason to prefer national brands.
  • Trust in online brands has declined, while trust in generic brands has increased.

• OTC Brand Recognition:

  • J&J's Tylenol was the most recognized OTC pain brand.
  • Mucinex and Claritin ranked high in brand recognition.
  • Generic brands like Tums and Pepto-Bismol were more frequently used than their market share would suggest.

Implications for Companies

• GSK (EW PT€16): The survey supports the company's OTC fundamentals and provides a positive outlook, especially with the potential spin-off in 2022. It is seen as a pure play in the consumer health space.

• BAYN (OW PT€85): The only major player rated as Overweight, BAYN represents an OTC recovery story, having returned to growth in Q2 2019. The report suggests a possible restructuring to improve performance.

• SAN (EW PT€80): Despite some growth in Q2 2019, the likelihood of a similar spin-off story is considered low due to the company's risk-averse board and regulatory pressures.

• J&J (EW PT $140): The survey is mixed for J&J, highlighting the importance of strong brands but also increased price sensitivity. The company's OTC segment is significant, with brands like Tylenol and Neosporin leading in usage.

• Procter & Gamble (OW PT $134): Preference for branded OTC products has increased, despite a general decline in brand preference across the sector. P&G's strategy is seen as positive with new leadership.

• Church & Dwight (UW PT $67) & The Clorox Company (UW PT $141): Both are rated as Underweight, with a slight decline in preference for branded products and a greater degree of ambivalence compared to previous years.

Key Observations

• The OTC market in the US is still dominated by traditional retail channels, with most consumers expecting to continue purchasing from physical stores.
• The power of brand remains significant, but does not necessarily translate into pricing power.
• Digital channel penetration is still low and faces trust and delivery challenges.
• The survey indicates a potential shift in consumer behavior, with more openness to online purchases but not yet widespread adoption.
• The report emphasizes the importance of tracking consumer attitudes and behaviors to assess future risks and opportunities in the sector.

Conclusion

The 2019 Consumer Health Survey highlights the resilience of brand loyalty and trust in the OTC space, despite the challenges posed by digital disruption. The report also underscores the strategic importance of OTC segments for companies like GSK and BAYN, with potential restructuring and spin-off opportunities. Investors are advised to consider the survey as a single factor in their decision-making process, given the broader market dynamics and corporate strategies.