2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kingdom_of_Swaziland_4页_151kb

Swaziland Fiscal Crisis and IMF Staff-Monitored Program Summary

Core Content

This document provides an assessment of Swaziland's recent macroeconomic developments and an update on the discussions between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Swaziland authorities, dated April 14, 2011. It outlines the fiscal challenges the country is facing, the government's response through the Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR), and the approval of the first Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) to support fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.

Main Fiscal Challenges

• Revenue Decline: Swaziland experienced an 11% drop in SACU revenue, which is a significant portion of its income.
• Wage Bill: The country has one of the largest wage bills in sub-Saharan Africa, which has increased further due to an unbudgeted 4.5% wage increase in 2010.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit rose to 13% of GDP in the 2010/11 fiscal year, up from 7% in the previous year.
• Reserve Shortfall: Gross official reserves have declined to only 2.5 months of import cover by end-March 2011.
• Financing Gap: The government faces a significant financing gap of E1.3 billion (US$200 million), which it hopes to close through external assistance.

Government Response: Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR)

• Objective: The FAR aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2014/15 and restore fiscal sustainability.
• Key Measures:
  • Revenue Side: Increase fuel levies, extend sales tax, and introduce a value-added tax (VAT) by April 2012.
  • Expenditure Side: Implement a wage and hiring freeze, reduce spending on goods and services by 20%, and cut nonpriority public investment.
  • Wage Bill Reduction: A graduated wage cut targeting top-paid civil servants, with 7,000 civil servants (20% of the civil service) eligible for the EVERS program.
  • Arrears Repayment: Commitment to repay all domestic payment arrears by March 2012.
• Budget Containment: The 2011/12 budget contains the fiscal deficit on a commitment basis to 7.5% of GDP.

Staff-Monitored Program (SMP)

• Approval: The SMP was approved by the IMF Managing Director on April 4, 2011, and covers the period January-June 2011.
• Objectives:
  1. Reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2014/15.
  2. Maintain international reserves at a sufficient level for external sustainability.
  3. Strengthen public financial management (PFM) and revenue administration.
  4. Protect education and health spending to support UN Millennium Development Goals.
• Fiscal Program:
  • More realistic revenue projections, with tax revenue expected to increase by 14.3%.
  • A 5% reduction in the wage bill relative to 2011/12, with the government already cutting minister salaries by 10%.
  • The overall fiscal deficit on a cash basis is projected to reach 12.5% of GDP for 2011/12.
• Implementation Focus:
  • Strengthening the Ministry of Finance's role in the budget process.
  • Improving transparency and budget reporting on both cash and commitment bases.
  • Providing technical assistance to the Swaziland Revenue Authority (SRA) to prepare for VAT implementation.

Economic Impact of the SMP

• GDP Growth: The fiscal adjustment is expected to reduce real GDP growth to 0.5% in 2011.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to rise to 8% in 2011 due to higher taxes and increased international food and fuel prices.
• Current Account: The external current account deficit is expected to decline in line with the fiscal adjustment.
• Reserves: Gross international reserves are projected to strengthen to about three months of import cover.

Risks and Mitigations

• Risks:
  • Political instability and limited implementation capacity.
• Mitigations:
  • Prior actions to frontload fiscal adjustment.
  • Safeguarding pro-poor spending and improving transparency.

External Support and Funding

• The government is seeking external assistance from the African Development Bank, the European Union, and bilateral donors to close the financing gap.
• An IMF arrangement is also being considered in the second half of 2011.

Summary of Key Economic Indicators (2009–2016)

Conclusion

Swaziland is facing a severe fiscal crisis, driven by declining SACU revenues and a large wage bill. The government has responded with an ambitious Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap, supported by the IMF's Staff-Monitored Program, which aims to stabilize the economy, improve public financial management, and ensure external sustainability. However, the country still requires significant external support to address the financing gap and implement the necessary fiscal adjustments.