20211123-招银国际-同程艺龙-00780.HK-Moving_into_3M22E_rebound_4页_882kb

报告摘要

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Tongcheng-Elong, a leading online travel agency (OTA) in China, reported a positive 3Q21 performance, with revenue and adjusted net profit exceeding consensus by 2% and 27%, respectively. However, the company's guidance for 4Q21E was below expectations, with revenue projected to decline by 3% to 2% YoY and adjusted net profit at RMB220-270mn, 36% below consensus. The short-term outlook for 4Q21 and 1Q22E is conservative due to ongoing travel restrictions and the impact of the resurgence of the pandemic.

Despite the short-term challenges, the report suggests a gradual rebound in 3M22E as travel restrictions ease after the Olympics and Two Sessions. The HK-China reopening is expected to act as a short-term catalyst for sector sentiment. Although outbound travel only accounts for ~5% of total revenue (as of 2019), the gradual reopening is anticipated to boost demand and drive a V-shaped recovery.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary

Revenue (RMB mn): FY20A: 5,933; FY21E: 7,486; FY22E: 9,771; FY23E: 11,481
YoY growth (%): FY20A: -19.8; FY21E: 26.2; FY22E: 30.5; FY23E: 17.5
Adj. Net Income (RMB mn): FY20A: 954; FY21E: 1,298; FY22E: 1,621; FY23E: 2,028
Adj. EPS (RMB): FY20A: 0.43; FY21E: 0.59; FY22E: 0.73; FY23E: 0.92
YoY growth of Adj. EPS (%): FY20A: -38.2; FY21E: 36.0; FY22E: 24.9; FY23E: 25.1
P/E (x): FY20A: 33.4; FY21E: 24.5; FY22E: 19.6; FY23E: 15.7
P/B (x): FY20A: 1.4; FY21E: 1.3; FY22E: 1.2; FY23E: 1.1
ROE (%): FY20A: 2.4; FY21E: 3.2; FY22E: 5.1; FY23E: 6.9

Earnings Forecast Revision

Revenue: Trimmed by 5-6% for FY21-23E due to travel restrictions.
Adj. Net Profit: Trimmed by 5-6% for FY21-23E.
Adj. Net Margin: Maintained at 17.3% for FY21E, 16.6% for FY22E, and 17.7% for FY23E.

Target Price

Maintained Target Price (TP): HK$20.0
P/E Ratio: 23x for FY22E, compared to the previous 21x.
Current Price: HK$17.3
Upside Potential: +15.3% from current price

Main Points and Key Insights

3Q21 Performance: Stronger than expected with revenue and adjusted net profit surpassing consensus.
4Q21 Guidance: Lower than expected, with revenue declining by 3-2% YoY and adj. net profit at RMB220-270mn, 36% below consensus.
Short-term Headwinds: Travel restrictions and soft seasonality are expected to drag 4Q21 and 1Q22E performance.
Long-term Outlook: Fundamentals remain intact, and a rebound is expected in 3M22E as restrictions ease.
Sector Catalysts: HK-China reopening could provide a short-term boost to the OTA sector.
Financial Health: The company has net cash on the balance sheet, and cash flow remains positive across all forecasted years.
Balance Sheet:
- Non-current assets decreased slightly from FY19A to FY23E.
- Current assets are expected to increase, indicating improving liquidity.
- Debtors turnover days improved, suggesting better working capital management.
- Creditors turnover days significantly decreased, indicating improved supplier payment efficiency.

Analyst Recommendations

Maintain BUY rating.
TP: HK$20.0 (based on 23x FY22E P/E).
Outlook: Focus on long-term fundamentals and rebound potential in 3M22E.
Investment Strategy: Suggest investors to look beyond short-term headwinds and focus on the gradual recovery.

Shareholding Structure

Tencent: 21.5%
Trip.com: 21.0%
Suzhou Industrial Park: 4.8%

Stock Performance

1-month return: -3.7%
3-month return: +14.6%
6-month return: -11.3%

Key Ratios

Gross Margin: Improved from 68.6% in FY19A to 74.1% in FY23E.
Adj. Net Margin: Slightly decreased from 20.9% in FY19A to 17.7% in FY23E.
ROE: Increased from 2.4% in FY20A to 6.9% in FY23E.
ROA: Improved from 1.7% in FY20A to 4.9% in FY23E.
Current Ratio: Increased from 1.7 in FY19A to 2.5 in FY23E, indicating stronger liquidity.

Conclusion

Tongcheng-Elong delivered a surprising 3Q21 performance, but guidance for 4Q21E was weak, reflecting the ongoing impact of travel restrictions and pandemic resurgence. The company is expected to recover gradually in 3M22E, with revenue and adjusted net profit growing by 30% and 25% respectively for FY22E. Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term fundamentals remain strong, and the stock is rated BUY with a target price of HK$20.0. The HK-China reopening and pent-up demand are seen as key drivers for future recovery.