2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sudan_Selected_Issues_Paper_76页_1mb

Sudan: Selected Issues Paper Summary

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team on Sudan, focusing on five key areas: fuel subsidies, inflation, external competitiveness, fiscal decentralization, and growth and employment. The paper was completed on September 7, 2012, and is based on information available at that time. It aims to provide background for the periodic consultation with Sudan and offers policy recommendations for reform.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact of Fuel Subsidies

• Fuel subsidies in Sudan were a significant burden on the budget, especially after the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
• The fiscal cost of subsidies in 2012 was SDG 10 billion, or 5.2% of GDP, compared to SDG 11 billion (6% of GDP) in the pre-reform scenario.
• Subsidies were highly regressive, with 48% of total subsidies going to the top income quintile and only 3% to the bottom quintile.
• Diesel accounted for the largest share of subsidies, contributing over 60% of total tax-inclusive subsidies.
• The fiscal savings from the June 2012 fuel price reform amounted to SDG 1.3 billion (0.6% of GDP), and the fiscal space increased to SDG 2.3 billion (1% of GDP) in 2013-14.
• Subsidy removal is fiscally costly, with every SDG transferred to the bottom quintile costing the budget almost 33 SDG.
• Smuggling of subsidized fuels to neighboring countries with higher prices has been a significant issue, reducing domestic supply and exacerbating the distributional inequity.

II. Sudan's Inflation Problem: Some Lessons from the Past 30 Years

• The paper explores inflation trends in Sudan from 1980 to 2011, highlighting the role of nontradable and tradable goods in inflationary pressures.
• Inflation modeling shows that nontradable goods inflation has been a major driver, influenced by domestic factors such as wage rigidities and monetary policy.
• ** Tradable goods inflation** has been affected by global oil prices and exchange rate volatility.
• Policy recommendations emphasize the need for monetary policy reforms, exchange rate stabilization, and improvements in fiscal discipline to control inflation.

III. Assessing Sudan's External Competitiveness

• External competitiveness is assessed through trade shares, balance of payments indicators, and Worldwide Governance Indicators.
• Sudan's exports are heavily concentrated in oil and petroleum products, making the economy vulnerable to international price fluctuations.
• FDI inflows have been limited, and export diversification is needed to improve economic resilience.
• Exchange rate has played a crucial role in external competitiveness, with a 66% devaluation in 2012 increasing import costs.
• Policy recommendations include reforms to the exchange rate regime, improving the business environment, and enhancing the competitiveness of the non-oil sector.

IV. Fiscal Decentralization: Trends, Challenges and Perspectives

• Fiscal decentralization in Sudan has been inefficient, with vertical fiscal imbalances (between central and state governments) and horizontal imbalances (among states) being major issues.
• Central government transfers to northern states have been significant, but discrepancies in reported transfers between states and the central government have raised concerns.
• Fiscal decentralization can contribute to poverty reduction if transfers are targeted and budget management is improved.
• Policy recommendations include strengthening fiscal transparency, improving intergovernmental transfers, and enhancing the capacity of local governments to manage budgets effectively.

V. Growth and Employment in Sudan

• Growth performance in Sudan has been uneven, with non-oil GDP per capita increasing slightly from 1970 to 2010.
• Growth sources include agriculture, industry, and services, but oil exports have dominated the economy.
• Growth and employment are interconnected, with unemployment being a major challenge, especially among youth.
• Policy recommendations include improving labor market efficiency, enhancing productivity, and implementing targeted employment programs.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fuel subsidy reform should be gradual, sequenced, and durable to minimize adverse impacts on poor households and allow time for social protection system improvements.
• Public information campaigns should be launched ahead of price increases to build public support and ensure transparency.
• Exchange rate reforms are necessary to improve external competitiveness and reduce inflationary pressures.
• Fiscal decentralization should be strengthened through transparent transfers, improved budget management, and enhanced local government capacity.
• Growth and employment strategies should focus on diversifying the economy, improving labor market conditions, and increasing productivity.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the fiscal and distributional challenges associated with fuel subsidies in Sudan and the importance of reforming these subsidies to improve economic efficiency and fiscal sustainability. It also emphasizes the need for broader economic reforms, including inflation control, exchange rate stability, and fiscal decentralization, to support long-term growth and poverty reduction. The high inequality in the distribution of subsidy benefits underscores the importance of targeted social protection programs in mitigating the adverse effects of subsidy removal.