2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Portugal_Selected_Issues_Paper_103页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Portugal

Core Content

This document is a selected issues paper on Portugal, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team for a periodic consultation with the country. It was completed on December 26, 2012, and focuses on Portugal's potential for long-term growth, competitiveness, corporate leverage, and fiscal reform. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of Portugal's economic performance, challenges, and opportunities for structural improvements.

Main Views and Key Information

I. How Fast Can Portugal Grow?

Introduction

• Portugal's economy is in deep recession, and achieving higher growth is urgent to raise incomes and restore public finances.
• The paper assesses Portugal's potential long-term growth, considering both the depth of the output gap and the impact of structural reforms.

Stylized Facts on Growth and Convergence

• Portugal experienced solid growth and convergence from the mid-70s to the early 90s, with real GDP growth averaging about 3.5% and TFP growth of 1.5% per year.
• From the early 90s onward, growth weakened, and convergence stalled. This is attributed to:
  • Weak institutions and failed policies
  • Excessive capital inflows before euro adoption, leading to distortions in the economy
  • High mark-ups in non-tradable sectors and low labor market flexibility
  • A significant human capital gap, especially in education
  • A lack of competitive financial and business environments
  • Excess corporate leverage that hindered investment and productivity

Taking Stock in 2012

• The output gap in 2012 was estimated to be around 4%, with a structural unemployment rate of 13%.
• The economy has been rebalancing toward tradables, but non-tradables have not absorbed the displaced labor, leading to high unemployment and low investment.
• Despite challenges, external adjustment has been faster than expected, and the export sector may provide persistent growth support in the future.

Prospect for Medium- to Long-Term Growth

• A 2% growth rate is considered a realistic long-term objective, consistent with moderate convergence.
• This requires boosting TFP growth to about 1% per year, which can be achieved through structural reforms aimed at:
  • Reducing wage and profit mark-ups
  • Enhancing the business environment
  • Improving labor and product market flexibility
• The challenge is to achieve a rapid turnaround in TFP growth and a modest recovery in investment, despite headwinds from public and private sector deleveraging.

II. Portugal's Competitiveness

How Did Competitiveness Get Out of Line?

• The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the lack of price competitiveness have made exports less competitive.
• The domestic demand boom before euro adoption amplified existing distortions, such as:
  • Weak financial supervision
  • Inflexible labor market
  • Lack of competition in non-tradable sectors
• These distortions contributed to growing macroeconomic imbalances and a shift in investment toward non-tradable sectors.

Crisis and External Adjustment

• The financial crisis led to a large output gap and high unemployment.
• The real effective exchange rate appreciated, which favored domestic demand over exports.

Episodes of Internal Devaluation

• Internal devaluation refers to sustained declines in relative prices.
• The paper discusses how internal devaluation episodes have impacted Portugal's competitiveness and economic performance.

Assessment

• Portugal's competitiveness gap is a key constraint to growth.
• Structural reforms are necessary to improve price competitiveness and reallocate resources more efficiently.

III. Portugal's Corporate (De) Leveraging

Introduction

• Corporate leverage has been a major issue in Portugal, contributing to economic stagnation and low investment.

Diagnostics of Corporate Vulnerabilities and Risks

• High corporate leverage is due to:
  • A tax system favoring debt over equity financing
  • Excessive debt financing during the pre- and post-euro adoption periods
• This has led to high non-performing loans (NPLs) and financial instability.

Macro-Financial Implications

• High leverage has had a negative impact on investment, as over-indebted firms are less likely to take on new projects.
• The negative relationship between leverage and investment is well documented in the literature.

Key Lessons and Policy Recommendations

• A comprehensive reform package is needed to address corporate leverage.
• Reforms should include:
  • Improving bank and corporate insolvency frameworks
  • Reducing corporate debt levels
  • Enhancing financial supervision and risk management

IV. Growth-Friendly, Equitable, and Sustainable Fiscal Reform

The Scale of the Challenge

• Portugal faces significant fiscal challenges, including a large output gap, high unemployment, and deleveraging in both public and private sectors.

Towards a More Efficient and Better Targeted Expenditure Profile

• The government has been pro-cyclical in its fiscal policy, which has worsened domestic demand pressures.
• A shift toward more efficient and targeted public spending is needed to support growth and reduce inequality.

Designing a Growth-Oriented Tax Policy

• Tax policies should be reformed to encourage investment and reduce corporate leverage.
• This includes:
  • Reducing tax distortions
  • Encouraging equity financing
  • Improving tax compliance and administration

Conclusion

• Structural reforms are essential to boost TFP, enhance competitiveness, and stimulate investment.
• A balanced and sustainable fiscal policy is needed to support long-term growth and ensure equitable outcomes.

Key Tables and Figures

Table	Content
I-1	Labor and product markets since 2011
I-2	Selected studies on the impact of labor and product market reforms
II-1	External adjustment episodes under rigid nominal exchange rates
III-1	Portugal: Leverage of nonfinancial corporations, 1997-2011
III-2	Evolution of firms' capacity to repay indicators, 1991-2011
III-3	Corporate vulnerability indicators by firm size, 2011
III-4	Contingent claims analysis
III-5	Corporate balance sheet adjustment in past crisis episodes
III-6	Macro-economic developments in past crisis episodes

Key Figures

• Figure I-1: Contributions to relative labor productivity
• Figure I-2: Relative labor productivity - key sectors
• Figure I-3: Contribution to growth - key sectors
• Figure I-4: Contribution to growth - demand side
• Figure I-5: Four scenarios under structural reforms
• Figure I-6: Baseline: potential output—capital and TFP
• Figure II-1A: Internal devaluation episodes—sustained declines in relative prices
• Figure II-1B: Internal devaluation—limited relative price adjustment
• Figure II-2: Cost- and price-competitiveness—alternative REER measure
• Figure II-3: Cumulative current account adjustment
• Figure III-1: Corporate vulnerability indicators
• Figure III-2: Evolution of firms' capacity to repay indicators
• Figure III-3: Corporate vulnerability indicators by firm size
• Figure III-4: Contingent claims analysis
• Figure III-5: Corporate balance sheet adjustment in past crisis episodes
• Figure III-6: Macro-economic developments in past crisis episodes

Acronyms

• ACE: Allowance for Corporate Equity
• AGR: Agriculture
• AMC: Asset Management Company
• AT: Tax Administration
• BdP: Banco de Portugal
• CBS: Central Balance Sheet (Database)
• CCA: Contingent Claims Analysis
• CGQ: Corporate Governance Quality (Index)
• CNT: Construction
• DD: Distance to Default
• EBITDA: Earning before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization
• FAC: Food and Accommodation
• IAPMEI: Instituto de Apoio às Pequenas e Medias Empresas (Portugal)
• ICR: Interest Coverage Ratio
• IFS: IMF International Financial Statistics
• IIP: International Investment Position
• INE: Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Portugal)
• INF: Media and Information
• MAN: Manufacturing
• MIN: Mining
• NFC: Non-Financial Corporation
• NPL: Non-Performing Loan
• N-TRD: Non-tradable sector
• OTH: Other
• PD: Probability of Default
• REC: Real Estate and Construction
• RET: Real Estate
• ROA: Return on Assets
• SME: Small and Medium Enterprise
• SS: Social Security
• TRD: Tradable sector
• TRS: Transportation
• UTL: Utilities
• WEO: IMF World Economic Outlook
• WRT: Wholesale and Retail Trade