2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_Selected_Issues_Paper_44页_866kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Peru

I. Core Content

This document provides an analysis of key fiscal and social policy issues in Peru, focusing on the effectiveness and limitations of the current fiscal framework, the institutional setup for macroprudential policy, and the progress and challenges in social policies. The paper was prepared by the IMF staff team in November 2011 and is based on available information at that time.

II. Main Points

A. Current Fiscal Framework

Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law (FRTL) has been effective in reducing public debt from 44% of GDP in 2004 to 24% in 2010.
The FRTL includes nominal deficit targets and real current expenditure ceilings for the central government and nonfinancial public sector.
It also provides for a fiscal stabilization fund (FEF) to manage cyclical variations in fiscal policy.
However, the FRTL has limitations:
- Procyclicality: Fiscal policy was pro-cyclical in 2008, leading to a temporary relaxation of targets due to the 2009 financial crisis.
- Discretionary Tax Changes: The FRTL does not prevent discretionary changes in tax rates, which can lead to procyclical measures.
- Institutional Coverage: The framework is not consistently applied across subsectors and subnational levels.
- Exceptional Clause Challenges: The exceptional clause in the FRTL was not effectively used during the 2009 crisis due to imprecise conditions.
- Non-compliance at Subnational Level: High non-compliance rates at the subnational level have hindered predictability.

B. Structural Guidance for Fiscal Policy

Introducing structural fiscal balances as a reference for fiscal policy could improve its countercyclical nature and provide better guidance.
Structural measures help in identifying the discretionary component of fiscal policy and reduce procyclicality.
The main concerns in estimating structural balances include:
- Methodological Differences: Different estimation techniques yield different results.
- Forecasting Errors: Structural measures are subject to errors in estimating trend output and commodity prices.
- Data Revisions: Revisions in past data can significantly affect structural balance estimates.
- Institutional Requirements: Strong institutions are essential for the implementation of structural fiscal frameworks.
- Timing: Introducing a structural framework should be done when macroeconomic stability is achieved and fiscal stimulus is withdrawn.

C. Structural Balance Estimates for Peru

Three main estimates exist: IMF, MEF, and BCRP, each using different methodologies.
Discrepancies in structural balance estimates are more pronounced in recent years (2011-2013) due to differences in fiscal projections.
The IMF staff estimates show a structural surplus from 2006 onwards, while the MEF and BCRP estimates show a structural deficit or mixed results.
Fiscal Impulse is a key indicator, with the IMF suggesting expansionary impulses in some years, while others show contractionary trends.

III. Key Recommendations

Limit Procyclicality: Peru should aim to limit procyclical fiscal measures, especially in response to large shocks.
Enhance Countercyclical Elements: Incorporate mechanisms to save high-cycle mineral revenues and improve the function of the FEF.
Improve Institutional Coverage: Ensure consistent application of fiscal rules across all levels of government.
Refine Methodologies: Further efforts are needed to improve the accuracy and reliability of structural balance calculations.
Agree on Medium-Term Targets: Establish a clear medium-term fiscal target to enhance policy predictability and coordination.

IV. Additional Notes

The FEF, while a savings mechanism, has not been effective in macroeconomic stabilization due to rigid withdrawal rules.
The current fiscal framework has been used to respond to the 2009 crisis, but its effectiveness was limited due to the timing and conditions of the exceptional clause.
The use of structural fiscal balances is recommended to better guide fiscal policy in a small, open, natural resource-dependent economy.
There is a need for greater transparency and consistency in the estimation procedures and fiscal projections.

V. Conclusion

The paper highlights the importance of a more robust and consistent fiscal framework in Peru, particularly in managing the cyclical nature of fiscal policy and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability. It also underscores the need for institutional improvements and methodological refinements to better align fiscal policy with economic conditions and long-term goals.