2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Selected_Issues_60页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of fiscal imbalances and the path to fiscal sustainability in the Republic of Moldova, as well as an evaluation of foreign direct investment (FDI) potential and external competitiveness, and a spillover report on trade and financial flows. It was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2012 as part of a periodic consultation with Moldova.

Main Views

I. Fiscal Imbalances and Road to Sustainability

Fiscal Sustainability: Achieving and maintaining fiscal sustainability is a key priority for Moldova. Although fiscal adjustment in 2010-11 reduced the large post-crisis deficit, the budget still heavily depends on exceptional external assistance and is vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.
Adjustment Progress: The government implemented an ambitious fiscal adjustment in 2010, including a comprehensive tax policy reform and expenditure rationalization. These measures helped reduce the structural deficit from 7.5% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of potential GDP in 2011.
Tax Reforms: In 2012, Moldova introduced a tax policy reform aimed at increasing revenue through VAT adjustments, reducing tax exemptions, and aligning excise rates with EU requirements. The reform is expected to yield a net revenue gain of 0.8% of GDP.
Challenges: Despite progress, fiscal sustainability remains fragile. Revenue challenges include a declining VAT collection due to high evasion and a reduction in grants. Expenditure challenges involve maintaining public investment and targeted social spending.

II. FDI Potential, Performance, and External Competitiveness

Competitiveness Improvements: Moldova has made progress in improving its competitiveness and ease of doing business, but challenges remain.
Growth Potential: The country's growth potential is driven by the private sector, with FDI inflows playing a key role. However, FDI inflows are limited by factors such as high labor costs and weak institutional frameworks.
Exchange Rate Assessment: The document discusses the CGER-type exchange rate assessment and highlights the overvaluation of the Moldovan leu, which affects external price competitiveness.
Policy Recommendations: To enhance FDI inflows, Moldova needs to improve its external competitiveness, particularly by addressing labor costs and enhancing the business environment.

III. Spillover Report

Trade and Remittances: Trade and remittances are significant channels of spillover effects for Moldova. The country's trade balance and remittances are sensitive to external economic conditions.
Capital and Financial Spillovers: Financial spillovers are influenced by the country's external position and the health of its banking system. The document highlights the importance of maintaining financial stability and improving the efficiency of public services.
Current Account Deficit: Moldova faces a current account deficit that needs to be financed through various sources, including foreign borrowing and remittances.

Key Information

Fiscal Balances (Table 1)

Headline fiscal balance (incl. grants): Declined from -0.3% of GDP in 2001 to -6.3% in 2009, then improved to -2.5% in 2010 and -1.3% in 2012.
Structural fiscal balance (excl. grants): Deteriorated from 1.2% in 2001 to -5.1% in 2008, then improved to -3.8% in 2012.
Current expenditure: Increased from 26% of GDP in 2001 to 41.6% in 2008, then decreased to 34% in 2011.

Pension Reform (Table 2)

Pension Contributions and Expenditures: Contributions decreased from 7.2% to 6.7% of GDP, while expenditures decreased from 9.9% to 8.3% of GDP.
Replacement Rates: Moldova's replacement rate is low, projected to decline from 28.2% in 2010 to 18.1% in 2030. This is below the regional average and poses a risk to social sustainability.

Tax Reforms and Competitiveness

VAT Shortfall: VAT revenue has been lagging behind economic activity since early 2011, mainly due to the increase in reduced and zero-rated supplies.
Tax Rebalancing: The current tax wedge is large, with social and health contributions accounting for 36% of the total tax burden. Reducing social contributions could be offset by increasing VAT rates, which could improve competitiveness and compliance.

Conclusion

Fiscal Sustainability: Moldova is on the path to fiscal sustainability by end-2012, but maintaining it will be a challenge.
Structural Reforms: Structural reforms in public administration and education are essential to ensure long-term fiscal and social sustainability.
FDI and Competitiveness: Improving the business environment and addressing labor costs are critical for attracting FDI and enhancing external competitiveness.
Pension System: The pension system needs reform to ensure both fiscal and social sustainability, with a focus on increasing the replacement rate and raising the retirement age for women.

References

IMF staff estimates.
OECD Employment Outlook 2010.
Ruud and Keen, 2012.
IMF, 2011.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Headline and Structural Fiscal Balances of the General Government, 2001-12.
Table 2: Moldova: Pension Contributions and Expenditures.
Table 3: Moldova and Selected Countries: Replacement Rates.
Table 4: Moldova and Selected Countries: Pensionable Ages, 2010-30.
Table 5: Moldova: Pension Reform Scenarios Simulated with the Pension Model.
Figures: General Government Fiscal Balance, 2001-12; First Pillar Pension Fiscal Balance; Average Old-Age Pension Rate Relative to Average Gross Wage; Economic Developments, 1995-2011; GDP Composition and Investments, 1995-2011; etc.