2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Algeria_Selected_Issues_Paper_69页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Algeria

Core Content

This paper addresses Algeria's fiscal challenges, export diversification, and private sector job creation. It is prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a periodic consultation with Algeria, based on data up to November 13, 2014.

Main Issues and Views

1. Fiscal Sustainability

• Current Fiscal Path: Algeria's fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path due to a heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues and persistent fiscal deficits since the global financial crisis.
• Fiscal Savings: Algeria has accumulated substantial fiscal savings, but these are expected to deplete over time, especially with the relatively short time horizon for hydrocarbon resources.
• Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price: Algeria's fiscal breakeven oil price has risen significantly, reaching nearly $136 per barrel in 2014, one of the highest in the region. This indicates high vulnerability to oil price fluctuations.
• Fiscal Adjustment Needed: To ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, Algeria must undertake significant fiscal consolidation. The paper suggests a nonhydrocarbon primary deficit of 9 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP as a target, which is much lower than the current 37 percent.
• Fiscal Multipliers: Current spending has a smaller multiplier effect compared to capital spending. Therefore, fiscal consolidation should focus on reducing current spending while preserving growth-enhancing capital expenditures.

2. Revenue Mobilization

• Revenue Trends: Total revenues as a percent of GDP nearly doubled from 27 percent in 1998 to 47 percent in 2008, but have since declined to 36 percent.
• Nonhydrocarbon Revenues: Nonhydrocarbon revenues have increased, but Algeria still has a revenue gap, with potential to collect an additional 2.3 percent of GDP in taxes.
• Tax Exemptions: Effective tax rates are lower than statutory rates due to exemptions. Reforms to reduce these exemptions, particularly on VAT, could significantly boost revenues.
• Tax Rates: Algeria's tax rates, especially for personal and corporate income taxes, are among the highest in the region and above the average in emerging and developing countries.
• Informal Sector: A large portion of the population is in the informal sector, which limits tax collection. Measures to formalize the economy and reduce barriers to entry could help increase tax base.
• Tax Reforms: Replacing the business turnover tax (TAP) with excise and property taxes could improve revenue efficiency and fairness, especially if accompanied by administrative reforms.

3. Export Diversification

• Hydrocarbon Dependence: Algeria's economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon exports, which have been declining due to lower production and higher domestic consumption.
• Need for Diversification: To reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks, Algeria must diversify its exports. This is especially urgent given the short time horizon for hydrocarbon resources.
• Policy Lessons: Past experiences suggest that diversification should be supported by structural reforms, improving competitiveness, and reducing reliance on subsidies.
• Revenue Gaps: The paper highlights the importance of tapping into nonhydrocarbon export potential, including the role of implicit hydrocarbon subsidies in providing time to diversify.

4. Private Sector Job Creation

• Labor Market Trends: Algeria has a high unemployment rate and a large informal sector, which limits job creation in the formal economy.
• Public Spending on Wages: The public wage bill has grown significantly, with spending on wages and salaries doubling between 2007 and 2012. This has contributed to inflation and reduced the efficiency of public spending.
• Labor Market Institutions: Strengthening labor market institutions and social protection systems is essential for improving employment outcomes and reducing inequality.
• Active Labor Market Policies: Five employment agencies have been established to support job creation, but their effectiveness needs to be evaluated.
• Entrepreneurship Schemes: Programs aimed at supporting unemployed individuals in entrepreneurship could help reduce reliance on public sector jobs and boost private sector activity.

Key Information

• Fiscal Indicators: Total expenditures as a share of GDP peaked at 44.6 percent in 2012, and the fiscal breakeven oil price has increased to $136 per barrel in 2014.
• Tax Potential: According to the revenue gap analysis, Algeria has not reached its tax potential, with a gap of 3.3 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2013.
• Structural Reforms: The paper emphasizes the need for structural reforms in the tax and customs administration to improve revenue collection and reduce inefficiencies.
• Public Investment Efficiency: Algeria's incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) has increased alongside public investment, suggesting diminishing returns to public spending.
• Social Stability and Inequality: High public sector wages contribute to inequality and may deter private sector participation, necessitating a reorientation of spending towards growth-enhancing investments.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation: Implement significant and sustained fiscal consolidation, including reducing current expenditures and increasing nonhydrocarbon revenues.
• Tax Reforms: Broaden the tax base by reducing exemptions, increasing VAT and excise taxes, and introducing property taxes.
• Export Diversification: Support nonhydrocarbon exports through structural reforms and competitiveness measures, while gradually reducing hydrocarbon subsidies.
• Labor Market Reforms: Strengthen labor institutions, improve social protection, and promote active labor market policies and entrepreneurship schemes to foster private sector job creation.