IRENA-2024年世界能源转型展望（英）-142页_14mb

报告摘要

World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway Summary

Core Content

The World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway is a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) that outlines the necessary steps for achieving a global energy transition aligned with the Paris Agreement goals. It presents two key scenarios: the Planned Energy Scenario and the 1.5°C Scenario, which serve as a reference to assess progress and identify the required actions to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century and achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.

The report highlights that while renewable energy deployment has increased significantly in 2023, the progress is geographically uneven, with most investments concentrated in a few countries. It also notes that energy efficiency and electrification in end-use sectors are lagging, and universal energy access under SDG7 remains out of reach for millions of people, particularly in the global South.

IRENA calls for urgent action and international collaboration, especially through the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), to be agreed upon at COP29, to channel more funding toward renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing regions. The NDC 3.0 submission in 2025 is seen as a crucial opportunity for countries to align their climate ambitions with the 1.5°C pathway.

Main Viewpoints

The 1.5°C Scenario is a framework that aligns energy and climate strategies, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 through a combination of renewable power generation, end-use electrification, energy efficiency, clean hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The Planned Energy Scenario serves as a baseline, showing that current national plans are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target, with only half of the required renewable power growth expected by 2030.
Fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix in major economies, and structural and systemic barriers remain a key obstacle to the energy transition.
International collaboration is essential, particularly for financing the energy transition in developing countries, and collaborative international finance flows are seen as a critical enabler of a just and inclusive transition.
The G20, as the world's largest economies and emitters, must increase their investments and commitments, especially in renewable energy and energy efficiency, to support the 1.5°C pathway.

Key Information

Energy Transition Milestones for 2030

Triple renewable power capacity: Reach 11,000+ gigawatts (GW) by 2030.
Double energy efficiency improvement rate: Achieve 4% annual improvement in energy intensity.
Universal energy access: Provide affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy to all under SDG7.

Renewable Power Deployment

2023 saw record growth in renewable power capacity, with 473 GW added, including 347 GW of solar PV.
China, EU, and US accounted for 83% of the global renewable power additions.
Solar PV is expected to continue leading due to its cost-competitiveness and flexible scalability.

Investment Needs

Global investments in renewable power reached USD 570 billion in 2023, up from USD 448 billion in 2022.
To meet the 1.5°C target, annual investments in renewable power, grids, and flexibility must increase to USD 4.5 trillion between 2024 and 2030.
The global energy sector must see investments grow by over 2.5 times to stay on track for 1.5°C.
IRENA estimates that cumulative energy sector investments must reach USD 47 trillion by 2030, averaging USD 6.7 trillion per year.

Challenges and Opportunities

Geographic concentration of investments remains a challenge, especially in the global South.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) may increase electricity demand but can also drive efficiencies in other sectors.
Energy system flexibility is essential for integrating high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE), such as solar and wind.
Storage technologies, grid upgrades, and interconnections are critical for ensuring reliability and supply security in renewable systems.

Policy and Institutional Support

Modernising and expanding transition infrastructure, including grids, is necessary.
Regulatory frameworks and market designs must be adapted to support renewables and flexibility solutions.
Institutional and human resource capacities must be strengthened to support the energy transition.
Clear targets and policies are needed to address investment risks, technological barriers, and policy uncertainty.

Social and Economic Considerations

A just and equitable energy transition must ensure inclusivity, equity, and social value creation.
Collaborative international finance flows can help bridge the investment gap and support energy access in developing regions.
IRENA's socio-economic welfare index highlights the benefits of a just transition, especially in Africa and the EU, when supported by international finance.

Conclusion

The World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024 underscores that while progress is being made in renewable energy deployment, significant challenges remain in investment, policy alignment, and global equity. The 1.5°C pathway is technically and economically feasible but requires urgent action, international collaboration, and policy innovation to be achieved. The G20 and COP29 play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition through financial commitments and coordinated efforts.