世界能源转型展望2024_142页_16mb

World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024: 1.5°C Pathway Summary

Core Content

The World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024 is a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) that outlines a vision for the global energy transition to align with the 1.5°C climate goal of the Paris Agreement. The report presents two key scenarios to evaluate the progress of the global energy system toward achieving this goal:

• Planned Energy Scenario: Based on current government energy plans and policies, primarily focusing on G20 countries.
• 1.5°C Scenario: A pathway for achieving the 1.5°C target, emphasizing the use of available renewable technologies and the need for systemic changes.

The report highlights the importance of international collaboration, policy reform, and investment in driving the energy transition and ensuring it is just and inclusive.

Main Goals and Milestones

1.5°C Target by 2050

• Achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century is essential to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
• The 1.5°C Scenario envisions 91% of global electricity supply coming from renewable energy sources by 2050.
• Solar PV and wind would account for 70% of this renewable electricity.
• Electricity would represent 52% of final energy consumption by 2050.

Key Milestones for 2030

• Tripling global renewable power capacity to over 11,000 GW.
• Doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvement to meet the 4% annual target.
• Universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy under SDG7.
• USD 31.5 trillion in investments required in 2024–2030 to meet these goals.

Main Challenges

1. Geographic Disparities in Investment

   • Renewable energy investments are concentrated in a few countries (e.g., China, US, Brazil, India, Germany).
   • Only 10% of global investments reached half of the world’s population (over 150 economies) in 2023.
   • African countries face challenges in attracting investment due to perceived risks and lack of infrastructure.

2. Structural and Systemic Barriers

   • Outdated regulatory frameworks and market designs hinder the transition.
   • Grid modernisation and expansion are critical to support high shares of renewable energy.
   • Energy efficiency and conservation are underdeveloped in many regions.

3. Technology and Policy Gaps

   • Flexibility in the power system is essential to accommodate high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE).
   • Storage technologies and grid interconnections are key to system reliability.
   • Policy uncertainty and high costs in high-risk areas reduce investor confidence.

4. Social and Economic Inequities

   • The energy transition must be equitable to ensure no one is left behind.
   • Low-income populations bear the highest costs for meeting energy needs.
   • Collaborative international finance is necessary to support the transition in developing and emerging economies.

Key Recommendations

• Modernise and expand transition infrastructure, including grids and storage systems.
• Establish regulatory frameworks and market designs suitable for renewable energy.
• Increase investments in renewable power, grids, flexibility, and energy efficiency.
• Enhance energy planning to reduce risks and transaction costs, making it more attractive for private capital.
• Promote international collaboration, especially for funding the energy transition in the Global South.
• Secure the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) at COP29 to channel climate finance effectively.
• Align NDC 3.0 submissions with the capacity additions required for a 1.5°C pathway.

Opportunities and Innovations

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) can both increase electricity demand and improve efficiency in other sectors.
• Green hydrogen and electrification of end-use sectors (e.g., transport, heating) are important for decarbonisation.
• Collaborative international finance, including wealth taxation, can be a viable option for funding a just transition.
• Energy planning initiatives, such as the Global Coalition on Energy Planning (GCEP), play a crucial role in accelerating the transition.

Key Figures and Data

• Renewable power capacity additions in 2023 reached 473 GW, with 347 GW from solar PV.
• China, EU, and US accounted for 83% of renewable additions in 2023.
• Annual investment in renewable power, grids, and flexibility must increase from USD 1.29 trillion in 2023 to USD 4.5 trillion between 2024 and 2030.
• Cumulative energy sector investment by 2030 is projected to reach USD 47 trillion, averaging USD 6.7 trillion per year.
• Electric cars accounted for 18% of total car sales in 2023, while heat pump sales declined by 3%.

Conclusion

IRENA's report underscores the urgency of action to realign the global energy transition with the 1.5°C pathway. While progress in renewable power deployment has been encouraging, insufficient investment, policy fragmentation, and geographic disparities remain significant obstacles. A just and inclusive transition requires international collaboration, modern policy frameworks, and scaled-up investments in both renewable energy and energy efficiency. The NDC 3.0 and NCQG processes at COP29 and beyond are critical to ensuring that the transition is equitable and achievable by 2050.