20180601-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_493kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content

This document provides an equity research summary on the performance of key indices and highlights specific opportunities in the transportation and pharmaceutical sectors in China. It includes market data, sector-specific analysis, and company recommendations based on the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) as the benchmark.

Key Index Performance

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	2018E EPS (%)	2019E EPS (%)	2018E P/E	2019E P/E
HSI	1.4	-1.1	1.8	43.8	10.5	11.8	10.7
HSCEI	1.8	-2.9	2.3	26.2	10.4	7.9	7.2
MXCN	1.4	1.2	3.6	55.3	15.7	13.2	11.4
SHSZ300	2.1	1.2	-5.7	35.3	15.0	12.7	11.1
SHCOMP	1.8	0.4	-6.4	39.8	13.6	12.2	10.7
SZCOMP	1.8	-0.5	-6.9	75.6	23.1	19.4	15.7
INDU	-1.0	1.3	-1.2	40.1	8.7	16.1	14.8
SPX	-0.7	1.9	1.2	45.9	10.0	17.0	15.5
CCMP	-0.3	4.4	7.8	81.9	15.4	22.5	19.5
UKX	-0.2	2.1	-0.1	167.6	5.7	14.0	13.2
NYK	-0.2	-1.5	-2.6	61.1	14.9	16.2	14.1

Sector Analysis

Transportation: "Highway to Railway" Strategy

Policy Context: The Chinese government is promoting a shift from highway to railway freight transportation as part of its broader plan to strengthen the country's transportation infrastructure.
Key Drivers:
- Increase in rail freight proportion.
- Acceleration of intermodality (integration of different transport modes).
- Policy support including tax deductions, exclusive railway lines, and incentives for short-distance transport.
Growth Targets: Set for 2018-20, with measures to encourage local railway bureaus to actively engage in cargo canvassing.
Infrastructure Impact: Shaba Railway has a transport capacity of 85 million tonnes, with 50.18 million tonnes handled in 2017. The handling capacity is expected to grow significantly.
Market Outlook: The "highway to railway" strategy is expected to be a long-term mechanism, potentially leading to increased transportation fees and profitability.
Recommended Company: China Railway Tielong Container Logistics (600125 CH) is highlighted due to its strong position in the rail logistics sector.
Risks:
- Infrastructure construction progress may be slower than expected.
- Crude oil price hikes may not meet expectations.

Pharmaceutical: Domestic Blood-Product Companies Likely to Benefit

Market Context: Sales of imported albumin have been declining, and domestic blood-product companies are gaining market share.
Key Insight:
- Human albumin is the most common blood product, with imported albumin accounting for over 60% of the market in 2017.
- Domestic companies are seeing positive YoY growth in their albumin sales, while imported sales have slowed or declined.
Market Expansion: The overall market for blood products is expanding, and domestic companies are expected to benefit from this trend.
Recommended Companies:
- Hualan Biological Engineering (002007 CH): Leading player with a complete range of blood products. Its albumin and other blood products saw strong YoY growth in 1Q18.
- Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group (300294 CH): Acquired Fudayiyao and established a marketing network. Its key products showed significant YoY growth in 1Q18.
Other Blood Products: Sales of products like human immunoglobulin, fibrinogen, and coagulation factors saw substantial growth in 1Q18.
Risks:
- Intensifying market competition.
- Policy shocks in the blood product industry.
- Rising costs of plasmapheresis.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Rating	Definition
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Company Ratings

Hualan Biological Engineering (002007 CH): Recommended as a Buy due to strong growth in key blood products.
Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group (300294 CH): Recommended as a Buy due to its expansion and growth in key products.
China Railway Tielong Container Logistics (600125 CH): Recommended as a Buy due to its strategic position in the rail logistics sector.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities. It is intended for the use of GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients. The information, opinions, and forecasts may change without notice. The report is not a substitute for professional advice. GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates may have interests in the securities mentioned. No part of the materials may be copied or reproduced without prior written consent.

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