20180830-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_463kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an equity research report dated August 30, 2018, focusing on the performance of various equity indices, the status of shadow banking in China, and an analysis of Chow Sang Sang (CSS) as a Hong Kong-listed company. It also includes rating definitions, analyst certification, and disclaimers.
Key Index Performance
| Market | 1D (%) | 1M (%) | YTD (%) | EPS 18E (%) | EPS 19E (%) | P/E 18E | P/E 19E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 0.2 | -1.1 | -5.0 | 37.4 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 10.4 |
| HSCEI | -0.1 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 16.9 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| MXCN | 0.0 | -2.2 | -6.7 | 46.9 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| SHSZ300 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -16.0 | 33.7 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| SHCOMP | -0.3 | -3.5 | -16.3 | 37.4 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| SZCOMP | -0.6 | -5.5 | -21.6 | 70.7 | 21.7 | 16.8 | 13.8 |
| INDU | 0.2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 43.7 | 9.2 | 15.3 | 16.4 |
| SPX | 0.6 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 48.2 | 10.4 | 16.8 | 18.1 |
| CCMP | 1.0 | 6.3 | 17.5 | 84.1 | 16.5 | 20.8 | 24.2 |
| UKX | -0.7 | -1.8 | -1.6 | 173.1 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 13.5 |
| NYK | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 65.7 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 16.3 |
The indices show mixed performance with SHSZ300 and SZCOMP experiencing significant declines, while SPX and CCMP show positive growth. The HSI and HSCEI have seen moderate declines, and the UKX and NYK show slight declines.
Hong Kong ADRs
| Company | Local (HK$) | Daily (%) | ADR (US$) | Daily (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 700 TENCENT | 360.8 | -1.26 | 46.2 | -0.39 |
| 1398 ICBC | 5.9 | -0.17 | 15.0 | 0.91 |
| 939 CCB | 7.1 | -0.28 | 18.1 | 0.50 |
| 857 PETROCHINA | 6.1 | 1.34 | 78.1 | 3.14 |
| 941 CHINA MOBILE | 75.0 | 0.94 | 47.9 | 1.52 |
| 5 HSBC | 70.2 | -0.07 | 45.1 | 0.40 |
| 2318 PING AN | 75.9 | 0.33 | 31.0 | 4.28 |
| 3988 BANK OF CHINA | 3.6 | -0.55 | 5.8 | 2.12 |
| 386 SINOPEC | 7.9 | 0.25 | 29.4 | 0.43 |
| 1299 AIA | 68.5 | 1.48 | 9.7 | 1.04 |
The ADRs show mixed performance, with some companies like TENCENT and ICBC experiencing declines, while others like PETROCHINA and PING AN show positive movements.
Analysis of Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)
Highlights
- 1H18 Performance: Revenue increased by 19% YoY, net profit rose by 54% YoY, and the net profit margin (NPM) improved to 6.3%.
- SSSG Growth: In Hong Kong and Macau, SSSG (Same-Store Sales Growth) was 22% and 24% respectively, with a higher growth rate in HK & Macau.
- Store Growth: CSS opened 34 new stores in China during 1H18, with 8 being for the new brand MINTY GREEN, and closed 14 stores. As of end-June, the company had 442 stores in mainland China.
- GPM and OPM: The gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 0.3pp to 24.7%, and the operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 1.9pp to 8.3%.
- SG&A Expense Ratio: The SG&A expense ratio fell by 1.1pp to 17.5%, mainly due to a 1.2pp drop in rental expenses.
Upgrade to Buy
- Revenue and Earnings Estimates: Upgraded to 12.6% / 4.3% for 2018/19 revenue growth and 12% / 8% for net profit growth.
- Target Price (TP): Raised TP from HK$17.20 to HK$18.38, based on a 12.5x 2018E P/E ratio.
- Reason for Upgrade: Improved retail environment, focus on the China market, and higher SSSG assumptions for HK & Macau.
Risks
- Trade War and Renminbi Depreciation: May affect sales growth in 2H18.
- Rental Expenses: Could be higher than expected, impacting profitability.
Banking Sector Analysis
Shadow Banking Contraction
- Contraction since 2018: Due to stricter supervision, shadow banking activity has contracted, leading to tighter credit and liquidity.
- Credit Expansion Expectations: Despite easing supervision and government incentives, credit expansion may still miss expectations due to significant on-balance sheet shadow banking assets and constraints on bank capital.
Measurement of Shadow Banking
- Reverse Deduction: Total deposits minus regular asset expansion deposits, resulting in shadow banking deposits of about Rmb17.6trn as of end-July 2018 (down Rmb3.3trn from end-Jan).
- Standard Deduction: Net creditors' rights (interbank) and non-banking non-standard claims, totaling about Rmb25.2trn (down Rmb2.9trn from end-Jan).
Risks
- Data Inaccuracy: Lack of reliable data may lead to inaccurate measurements.
- Asset Quality Deterioration: Potential for faster asset quality decline than expected.
- External Environment: Possible worsening of the external environment.
- Economic Downturn: Risk of an economic downturn exceeding expectations.
Rating Definitions
| Rating | Definition |
|---|---|
| Buy | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% |
| Accumulate | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% |
| Sector Rating | Definition |
|---|---|
| Positive | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% |
| Neutral | Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% |
Analyst Certification and Disclosure
- The research analyst certifies that all views expressed reflect personal opinions and that no part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly related to the recommendations.
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the mentioned securities or have investment banking relationships with the companies.
- The analysts have no financial interests or ownership in the securities mentioned.
Disclaimer
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- The report is intended for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients only.
- The information may be subject to change without notice.
- The proprietary trading division may have different investment decisions from the research report.
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