20180626-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_494kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an equity research summary focusing on the performance of key indices and A-share market analysis, particularly in the context of China-US trade disputes and the property sector. It also includes investment strategies, sector ratings, and risk assessments.
Key Index Performance
| Market | 1D (%) | 1M (%) | YTD (%) | EPS 18E (%) | EPS 19E (%) | P/E 18E | P/E 19E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | -1.3 | -5.3 | -3.2 | 40.9 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| HSCEI | -1.2 | -7.0 | -4.3 | 21.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| MXCN | -2.5 | -4.9 | -1.1 | 55.5 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 10.9 |
| SHSZ300 | -1.3 | -6.7 | -11.7 | 34.4 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| SHCOMP | -1.1 | -9.0 | -13.5 | 37.7 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| SZCOMP | -0.6 | -12.3 | -16.4 | 73.7 | 22.3 | 17.6 | 14.4 |
| INDU | -1.3 | -2.0 | -1.9 | 40.6 | 8.7 | 15.9 | 14.6 |
| SPX | -1.4 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 46.2 | 10.0 | 17.1 | 15.5 |
| CCMP | -2.1 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 81.8 | 15.4 | 22.8 | 19.7 |
| UKX | -2.2 | -2.9 | -2.3 | 169.7 | 6.4 | 13.6 | 12.7 |
| NYK | -0.9 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 61.9 | 14.4 | 16.1 | 14.0 |
The indices show mixed performance with some experiencing declines and others showing slight gains. The SHCOMP and SZCOMP indices had the largest YTD declines, while the SPX and CCMP indices showed positive growth.
A-Share Market Analysis
Investment Strategy
- Upside greater than downside pressure: The market is expected to benefit from positive signals and a marginal rebound in credit conditions amid ongoing China-US trade disputes.
- Focus on sectors: Cyclical sectors (property, steel, coal) that have undergone full adjustment but have improving fundamentals, and sectors with dominant valuations and profitability (retail, textiles, pharmaceuticals).
- Alpha stocks: Medical services stocks with positive business conditions should be watched.
China Pulse Check: Property
- Transactions in major cities likely to accelerate: Property sales in 40 major cities in May declined slightly YoY but the decline narrowed from April.
- First-tier and third-tier cities: Showed positive YoY growth (4.8% and 2.4% respectively), while second-tier cities saw a 3.4% YoY drop.
- New project launches: Property developers have increased efforts, leading to growth in new commercial property projects.
- Supply and demand: Continued growth in land supply and demand, with a significant rebound in land transaction value.
- Mortgage rates: YoY growth narrowed for the first time in May, suggesting a potential easing of financing pressure.
Liquidity and Valuation
- Mortgage rate growth: Narrowed to 5.60%, with a bottoming out at 116bp.
- P/E valuation: Expected to rise further due to easing financing pressure and stable fundamentals.
- Recommendations: Focus on cheaply valued first-tier developers (e.g., China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone, Vanke) and second-tier leaders (e.g., Zhongnan Construction Group, RiseSun Real Estate Development).
Risks
- Further policy tightening
- Mortgage rates continue to rise
- China-US trade disputes escalate
- Interim results of A-share market lower than expected
Rating Definitions
Company Ratings
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Buy | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% |
| Accumulate | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% |
Sector Ratings
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% |
| Neutral | Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% |
Analyst Certification and Disclosure
- The research analyst(s) certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect personal views.
- No part of the analyst’s remuneration is linked to specific recommendations in the report.
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the mentioned securities.
- No investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned in the past 12 months.
- No financial interests or holdings in the securities discussed.
Disclaimer
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- It is intended solely for use by GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients.
- The information may be subject to change without notice.
- No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of the materials in this report.
- Investments involve risks and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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