巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行外汇指南-20180730-18页_1018kb

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Summary - 30 July 2018

Core Content

BNP Paribas FX Strategy and Quantitative Daily Report provides an overview of the STEER™ model's trading signals and market analysis for various currency pairs across different regions. The report highlights the model's current positions, target prices, stop-loss levels, and returns, along with the deviation from short-term values (z-scores) and relevant market factors.

Main Trading Signals

New Signals (30-Jul-18)

• SHORT USDTRY
  Entry Rate: 4.8738
  Target: 4.8180
  Stop Loss: 4.9017
  Return: 0.00%

• SHORT USDILS
  Entry Rate: 3.6607
  Target: 3.6388
  Stop Loss: 3.6716
  Return: 0.00%

• SHORT USDTWD
  Entry Rate: 30.6340
  Target: 30.3821
  Stop Loss: 30.7599
  Return: 0.00%

• SHORT USDIDR
  Entry Rate: 14455
  Target: 14342
  Stop Loss: 14511
  Return: 0.00%

Closed Signals

• SHORT USDIDR (25-Jul-18)
  Entry Rate: 14540
  Close Rate: 14420 (27-Jul-18)
  Return: 0.82%

• LONG EURUSD (18-Jul-18)
  Entry Rate: 1.1631
  Target: 1.1824
  Stop Loss: 1.1492
  Return: 0.23%

• SHORT EURSEK (20-Jul-18)
  Entry Rate: 10.3786
  Target: 10.1694
  Stop Loss: 10.4665
  Return: 0.72%

• SHORT USDTHB (26-Jul-18)
  Entry Rate: 33.2800
  Target: 33.0535
  Stop Loss: 33.3933
  Return: -0.04%

• SHORT USDPHP (27-Jul-18)
  Entry Rate: 53.4420
  Target: 53.0870
  Stop Loss: 53.6195
  Return: 0.28%

Key Market Analysis

G10 Currencies

• EURUSD
  STEER long position at 1.1824
  Spot rate: 1.1660
  Z-score: -1.07 (-1.43%)
  Upper Bound: 1.2058
  Lower Bound: 1.1590

• USDJPY
  STEER short position at 109.03
  Spot rate: 111.10
  Z-score: 0.97 (1.85%)
  Upper Bound: 112.2161
  Lower Bound: 105.8417

• USDCAD
  STEER short position at 1.2933
  Spot rate: 1.3070
  Z-score: 1.17 (1.02%)
  Upper Bound: 1.3104
  Lower Bound: 1.2762

Emerging Markets (EM)

• USDTRY
  STEER short position at 4.7704
  Spot rate: 4.8710
  Z-score: 1.80 (2.06%)
  Upper Bound: 4.8541
  Lower Bound: 4.6866

• USDILS
  STEER short position at 3.6253
  Spot rate: 3.6590
  Z-score: 1.53 (0.92%)
  Upper Bound: 3.6581
  Lower Bound: 3.5925

• USDTWD
  STEER short position at 30.1419
  Spot rate: 30.6230
  Z-score: 1.91 (1.57%)
  Upper Bound: 30.5197
  Lower Bound: 29.7640

• USDIDR
  STEER short position at 14230
  Spot rate: 14450
  Z-score: 1.95 (1.52%)
  Upper Bound: 14399.1214
  Lower Bound: 14060.5814

• USDTHB
  STEER short position at 32.5216
  Spot rate: 33.2920
  Z-score: 3.32 (2.31%)
  Upper Bound: 32.8695
  Lower Bound: 32.1737

Latin America

• USDCLP
  STEER short position at 646.89
  Spot rate: 642.90
  Z-score: -0.87 (-0.62%)
  Upper Bound: 653.7105
  Lower Bound: 640.0650

• USDMXN
  STEER short position at 18.7746
  Spot rate: 18.6450
  Z-score: -0.83 (-0.70%)
  Upper Bound: 19.0096
  Lower Bound: 18.5395

• USDBRL
  STEER short position at 3.6836
  Spot rate: 3.7110
  Z-score: 0.55 (0.74%)
  Upper Bound: 3.7585
  Lower Bound: 3.6086

• USDPEN
  STEER short position at 3.2661
  Spot rate: 3.2730
  Z-score: 0.64 (0.22%)
  Upper Bound: 3.2829
  Lower Bound: 3.2492

• USDCOP
  STEER short position at 2857
  Spot rate: 2886
  Z-score: 1.14 (1.02%)
  Upper Bound: 2895.3878
  Lower Bound: 2817.8818

Key Insights

• STEER has added 4 new short USD vs. EM signals: USDTRY, USDILS, USDTWD, USDIDR.
• STEER also remains short USDTHB and USDPHP.
• Over the past two weeks, STEER has made a combined profit of 5.2% on 20 short USDEM signals.
• The EURUSD long position remains open, targeting 1.1824.
• STEER believes EURUSD has potential for further gains due to lower oil prices and rising global equities.
• EURSEK remains in a short position with a target of 10.1694.

Driving Factors

• Recent strengthening in local equity markets and tightening of CDS has not been fully priced into FX markets.
• Lower oil prices and rising global equities support the EURUSD long position.
• The model's signals are based on deviations from short-term values (z-scores), indicating potential overvaluation or undervaluation of currencies.

Legal and Disclaimer Notes

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties under MiFID II.
• It is not investment research and should not be used for investment decisions.
• It may contain "Research" under MiFID II unbundling rules, accessible only to those who have subscribed to BNPP Global Markets Research packages.
• The document does not constitute an offer to sell or issue any securities, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the information or reliance on it.
• All estimates and opinions are subject to change without notice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• STEER™ is a trade mark of BNPP.

Contact Information

Online Resources

• BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
• BNP Paribas Strategy Website: www.baogaoba.xyz (獨家收集 百萬報告 实时更新 日更千篇)

US Disclosures

• Options are complex instruments and not suitable for every investor.
• ETFs discussed in this document require consideration of investment objectives, risks, and charges.
• Supporting documentation for any claims or data is available upon request.
• The information provided is for informational purposes only and not intended as a transaction confirmation.
• The Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options can be obtained from the Option Clearing Corporation's website.

Disclaimer

• This document is for information purposes only.
• No assurance is given that transactions will be entered into on the terms indicated.
• Indicative prices are based on BNPP's internal models and may vary from other sources.
• BNPP may face conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
• The information is not a prospectus or public offering and is not intended to provide investment, tax, or accounting advice.
• All information is believed reliable but not guaranteed.