欧盟-中东军备控制与地区安全联盟（英文）-2020.5-14页_433kb

Summary of "The Arms Control-Regional Security Nexus in the Middle East"

Core Content

This paper examines the complex relationship between arms control and regional security in the Middle East, focusing on the implications of the erosion of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the potential for regional cooperation to address these challenges. It argues that the JCPOA, while primarily an arms control agreement, has been increasingly linked to regional security dynamics, especially following the US withdrawal and the subsequent deterioration of relations between Iran and its neighbors.

The paper highlights that the JCPOA was negotiated in isolation from regional security concerns, but the US's 'maximum pressure' campaign, which targeted Iran's regional activities, has blurred this distinction. The resulting instability in the Gulf has underscored the need for a more integrated approach to arms control and regional security, with the European Union (EU) being urged to adopt a more comprehensive strategy that includes both non-proliferation and regional cooperation mechanisms.

Main Views

• The JCPOA and Regional Security Nexus:
  The JCPOA was not only a nuclear non-proliferation agreement but also a tool for managing US-Iranian tensions. Its erosion has led to increased regional insecurity, including heightened threats of military action from Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a potential nuclear arms race in the Gulf.

• US Withdrawal and Its Impact:
  The US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions have significantly undermined the agreement. These actions have been justified by the US in terms of Iran's regional activities, which have fueled anti-Iranian sentiment in the region and among its allies.

• European Policy and Credibility:
  The EU has been a key supporter of the JCPOA, but its efforts to counter US sanctions have been limited. The E3 (France, Germany, UK) have increasingly aligned with US positions, calling for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and regional security, which has raised concerns about the EU's ability to act independently.

• Potential for Regional Security Dialogue:
  The paper suggests that a security dialogue among Gulf states could serve as a platform for regional cooperation. Such dialogue could help build mutual trust and address shared security concerns, including the risk of war and the proliferation of nuclear and conventional weapons.

• Gulf Security Dialogue and Arms Control:
  While arms control is not explicitly mentioned in Iranian proposals, the paper explores how regional security dialogues could indirectly support non-proliferation efforts. It suggests that confidence-building measures (CBMs) and regional cooperation on nuclear energy could help reinforce the norm against nuclear weapons and reduce the risk of escalation.

Key Information

• Erosion of JCPOA:
  The JCPOA has been significantly undermined by US sanctions and Iran's reduced compliance. This has led to a new nuclear crisis in the region and increased tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

• Regional Security Dynamics:
  The Gulf region is characterized by poor interstate relations and a zero-sum mentality. However, recent developments, such as improved relations between Iran and some Arab states, suggest that a security dialogue could be possible.

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Engagement:
  The GCC, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, has reportedly shown interest in engaging with Iran in a security dialogue, reflecting a shift in regional attitudes and a growing awareness of shared vulnerabilities.

• Nuclear Cooperation Models:
  The paper outlines three potential models for nuclear cooperation in the Gulf:

  1. Regionalization of JCPOA Elements:
     This would involve extending the verification mechanisms of the JCPOA to other Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to ensure the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

  2. Regional Inspection Regime (Brazilian-Argentine Model):
     A bilateral inspection system, modeled after ABACC, could be established to verify the peaceful use of nuclear materials among Gulf states.

  3. Arab-Iranian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Cooperation:
     A joint effort on nuclear fuel cycle development could reduce the risk of proliferation and promote regional stability.

• WMD-Free Zone Initiative:
  The UN Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other WMDs has the potential to create a norm against nuclear weapons and serve as a foundation for broader regional cooperation.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while the JCPOA was a significant achievement in nuclear non-proliferation, its erosion has highlighted the need for a more integrated approach that links arms control with regional security. It calls for the EU to support emerging regional processes, such as Gulf security dialogues and the WMD-free zone initiative, to foster a more stable and cooperative security environment in the Middle East.