世界经济论坛-扩大可持续航空燃料供应：克服欧洲、美国和中东的障碍（英）-2024.3-33页_4mb

Summary of "Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Supply: Overcoming Barriers in Europe, the US and the Middle East"

Introduction

• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is critical for decarbonizing the aviation sector, which currently accounts for 2–3% of global CO2 emissions and is projected to increase by over 50% by 2050. SAF can reduce emissions by up to 99% compared to fossil jet fuel. However, global production is insufficient (only 30–40% of 2030 target is announced), and scaling relies on technological deployment, regulatory frameworks, and investment.

Projections and Challenges

• Global SAF demand in 2030 is estimated at 40–50 Mt, but current projects cover only 30–40% of this. Key barriers include high costs (SAF is 2–5 times more expensive than fossil fuel), regulatory uncertainty, and feedstock constraints.
• SAF Production Pathways (HEFA, G-FT, AtJ, PtL) face varying challenges based on geography, such as feedstock availability, energy costs, and sustainability.

Regional Focus

1. Europe

   • Challenges: Limited agricultural land, high energy costs, and low bio-feedstock availability.
   • Actions: Strong regulatory framework (e.g., ReFuelEU mandates and ETS). Focus on imports, collaboration, and long-term SAF contracts. Need for clear carbon accounting and transparent pricing.

2. US

   • Challenges: Competition with biodiesel mandates, lack of uniform carbon pricing.
   • Actions: Incentives through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and state-level programs (e.g., LCFS). Focus on localized production, infrastructure, and risk-sharing contracts.

3. Middle East

   • Challenges: Dominance of fossil fuel; limited regulatory engagement on SAF.
   • Actions: Leverage cheap renewable energy for PtL deployment. Focus on co-processing in refineries, cross-industry collaboration, and public awareness.

Global Strategies for Scaling SAF

1. Collaboration

   • Public-private partnerships, book and claim systems, and long-term offtake agreements are essential for risk-sharing and demand certainty.

2. Finance

   • Blended finance, tax credits, and innovative financial instruments (e.g., contracts for difference) can de-risk investments. Corporate and government support is crucial for early-stage technologies.

3. Policy

   • Mandates, carbon pricing (e.g., ETS), and incentives (e.g., LCFS) drive SAF adoption. Harmonization of regulations globally avoids carbon leakage and supports equitable scaling.

Key Recommendations

• Technology Deployment: Accelerate production of advanced biofuels and synthetic fuels (HEFA, AtJ, G-FT, PtL).
• Infrastructure: Invest in blending facilities and refinery co-processing.
• Market Mechanisms: Standardize accounting (book and claim) to enhance transparency and liquidity.
• International Cooperation: Establish green SAF corridors to connect production hubs and demand centers.

Conclusion

Achieving the 2030 SAF target of 10% global fuel supply requires rapid scaling through collaboration, supportive policies, and innovative finance. Sustainable aviation fuel is a cornerstone of net-zero aviation, and its success depends on addressing regional barriers while fostering a cohesive global strategy.