世界经济论坛-欧洲可持续航空燃料混合授权指南（英）-2021.7_42页_3mb

Summary of "Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe"

Core Content

This report outlines the feasibility and implications of implementing a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending mandate in Europe as part of the Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) initiative. The CST coalition, composed of leaders from the aviation value chain, advocates for a policy mechanism that supports the rapid scaling of SAF production to meet climate goals under the European Green Deal.

The report emphasizes that SAF is a critical component in achieving net-zero emissions in the aviation sector by 2050, especially for long-haul flights. It provides a detailed assessment of the potential for SAF production in Europe from 2020 to 2050, along with policy design recommendations and financial considerations.

Main Points

1. SAF Production Feasibility

• Current Production: As of 2020, the commercial production of SAF in Europe is minimal, accounting for only approximately 0.05% of total jet fuel consumption.
• Projected Capacity: If all announced projects materialize by 2025, the maximum SAF output could be around 3 million tonnes (Mt) per year, which is about 5% of European jet fuel demand.
• Policy Impact: Without a strong policy signal, SAF production could be limited to 1.5–2 Mt/year by 2025, covering 2.5–3% of demand.
• Feasible Target by 2030: With strong policy support, SAF production can ramp up to 10% of total European jet fuel consumption by 2030, equivalent to ~6.5 Mt/year.
• Import Potential: SAF imports could increase the availability of fuel, potentially allowing European production to reach 20% by 2030 if 15% of global sustainable feedstock is imported.

2. Public Financial Support

• Total Investment Needed: Public investment support for new SAF plants could be €120 billion over the next 15 years.
• Support for Technologies: The majority of this investment (about €110 billion) would be directed towards lignocellulosic and power-to-liquid (PtL) pathways, which are less technologically mature than hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA).
• HEFA Support: HEFA plants, being the most mature and cost-effective, would require less public support due to the certainty provided by the blending mandate.

3. Competitive Distortions and Fuel Tankering

• Cost Differential: Airlines and airports may face additional costs due to the higher price of SAF compared to conventional jet fuel.
• Competitive Risks: A blending mandate could create competitive distortions if not harmonized across Europe, potentially leading to fuel tankering (the practice of carrying fuel to other regions to avoid higher prices).
• Mitigation Strategies: To prevent these issues, the report suggests:
  • Applying the SAF differential to all departing flights in Europe.
  • Developing a harmonized policy framework across EU member states.
  • Ensuring a global SAF blending mandate is established to maintain a level playing field.

4. Policy Design Recommendations

• Mandate Implementation: A blending mandate should be applied to fuel suppliers in Europe, with volumetric targets to ensure predictable demand.
• Blending Levels: The mandate should include progressive blending levels to avoid overburdening the industry and to support cost reductions.
• Technology Pathways: The mandate should include sub-targets for novel pathways such as lignocellulosic and PtL, to accelerate their development.
• Harmonization: A uniform regional policy is recommended to avoid competitive distortions and tankering risks, while also supporting the development of a global solution.

Key Information

• SAF Benefits: SAF can reduce CO₂ emissions by 75–100% compared to fossil-based jet fuel and does not require new infrastructure, making it cost-effective and practical.
• Feedstock Requirements: To meet SAF demand, 40% of sustainable biomass in Europe should be allocated to jet fuel production, ensuring feedstock availability.
• Timeline for Development: New SAF projects are expected to come online from 2025 onwards, with the full capacity to reach 10% of jet fuel demand by 2030.
• Need for Global Coordination: A global SAF blending mandate is seen as the optimal solution to maintain a level playing field and ensure consistent progress towards decarbonization.

Conclusion

The report underscores the necessity of a strong policy framework to drive the scaling of SAF production in Europe. It also highlights the importance of public financial support and harmonized regulations to ensure fair competition and smooth implementation. The ultimate goal is to reduce aviation emissions and support the transition to net-zero by 2050 through a combination of policy, investment, and technological development.