国家经济和社会研究所-英国的再工业化（英）-2023.5-60页_1mb

The report "Reindustrialising the United Kingdom" examines whether a lower value of the British pound could improve the UK's investment and growth performance and the conditions under which this could be maintained. The UK has experienced deindustrialization, with the manufacturing share of GDP declining significantly, from about 35% in 1950 to around 10% today. This is linked to lower productivity growth and regional disparities in employment.

The analysis finds that while a lower exchange rate might provide short-term gains in competitiveness, exports, and GDP, these benefits are temporary and offset by increases in inflation and unit labour costs in the long run. Reindustrialization through large devaluations is not feasible as a standalone policy, as it fails to sustainably boost manufacturing. Chinese and Singaporean case studies suggest that exchange rates alone do not drive reindustrialization; instead, factors like investment, innovation, and labour availability play key roles.

To address low productivity, the authors recommend increasing business investment as a proportion of GDP, requiring changes in private and public savings behaviour. Holding a lower exchange rate necessitates managing the policy trilemma, which involves trade-offs between exchange rate stability, capital controls, and monetary independence. Options include fiscal consolidation focused on expenditure cuts, sterilized interventions, and sovereign wealth funds.

In conclusion, reindustrialization cannot be achieved solely through exchange rate depreciation; comprehensive policies supporting investment and productivity are essential.