20241216-宁证期货-甲醇周度报告_港口库存预期较稳_预计震荡偏强_9页_849kb

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中文摘要

这份甲醇市场分析报告指出，11月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）回升至50.3%，显示制造业扩张步伐小幅加快。供应端预估呈现高位下降趋势，内地区域甲醇装置开工率面临调整，内地及港口库存双双下降，并呈现稳定状态。下游需求方面，尽管产能利用率总体稳定，但主要消费领域如MTO装置开工率下降，装置重启可能存在计划限制。结合供需及库存情况，加之美元反弹背景下部分套期保值盘减持多单，预计近期甲醇市场呈现震荡偏强趋势，05合约支撑位在2540一线附近。

English Summary

This methanol market analysis report indicates that the November China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3%, signaling a slight acceleration in manufacturing expansion. On the supply side, an expected decline is noted amid adjustments in regional rates facing plant shutdowns and restart plans. Inventories remain low, both onshore and at ports, showing stability. On the demand side, although overall utilization rates are expected to remain steady, key consumption areas like MTO plants saw a decrease in production rates, potentially limited by restart timelines. Integrating supply-demand dynamics and inventory conditions, adjusted for dollar strength and reduced hedging positions, the market is predicted to exhibit an upwardly biased震荡 range shortly, with support seen around the 2540 level for the 05 contract.