2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Armenia_An_Assessment_of_the_Real_Exchange_Rate_and_Competitiveness_40页_1mb

Summary of "Armenia: An Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness"

Core Content

This paper evaluates the real exchange rate and competitiveness of Armenia using multiple methodologies, including the macroeconomic balance (MB) approach, the external sustainability (ES) approach, and the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) approach. The study aims to determine whether the Armenian dram is overvalued or undervalued and to analyze the country's external competitiveness over time.

Main Views

1. Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Assessment

• The paper applies the IMF Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER).
• The MB approach focuses on aligning the current account (CA) with its sustainable level based on potential GDP and inflation. It estimates the exchange rate adjustment required to restore external balance.
• The ES approach defines the CA norm based on external debt sustainability, ensuring that the net external position (NEP) remains stable.
• The ERER approach estimates the long-run cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals.

2. Methodological Considerations

• The MB and ES approaches are based on current account misalignment and the assumption of internal balance.
• The ERER approach is estimated using a country-specific autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.
• A panel estimation technique is also employed, which accounts for cross-section dependence using common correlated effects (CCE) estimators, as proposed by Pesaran (2006).
• A panel cointegration test is introduced and applied to accommodate cross-country common factors.

3. Competitiveness Analysis

• The paper evaluates both price and non-price indicators of competitiveness.
• Price competitiveness is measured through the real effective exchange rate (REER), which has appreciated in recent years, potentially indicating a loss of competitiveness.
• Non-price competitiveness is assessed using the World Economic Forum (WEF) and World Bank indicators, such as the ease of doing business and enterprise survey data.
• Armenia ranks low in competitiveness compared to other transition economies, with significant issues in corruption, access to finance, and business environment.

Key Information

Export Performance

• Export volume increased from 2001 to 2008, but fell significantly in late 2008 due to the global crisis.
• Since then, it has shown a modest recovery but remains at 2003 levels.
• Export structure has shifted, with a decline in the share of machines, equipment, and textile products, suggesting a loss of competitiveness.
• Precious and non-precious metals, precious and semi-precious stones, and minerals still constitute over 65% of exports, but their relative importance has decreased.

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)

• The REER appreciated from 2006 to 2009, largely due to foreign exchange inflows and high export prices.
• In March 2009, the dram depreciated by 22% against the US dollar following the global crisis.
• The REER has appreciated again between December 2009 and July 2010, indicating a real overvaluation of 7–11% as of end 2009.

Non-Price Competitiveness

• According to the World Economic Forum, Armenia ranks 98 out of 139 countries in competitiveness in 2010, below many Eastern European and CIS countries.
• The World Bank enterprise survey shows that corruption, crime, theft, and access to finance are major concerns for businesses in Armenia.
• These issues are more pronounced in Armenia than in other transition economies, indicating a worsening business environment.

Macroeconomic Balance Approach Results

• The MB approach estimates the current account norm based on potential GDP, inflation, and other fundamentals.
• The misalignment of the real exchange rate is estimated to be 3–4% in the medium term.
• The results are sensitive to assumptions about potential GDP growth and inflation, and depend on future policy changes.

External Sustainability Approach Results

• The ES approach defines the CA norm based on external debt sustainability.
• The results are highly sensitive to assumptions about potential GDP growth and inflation.
• Assuming a potential growth rate of 4% and inflation of 5%, the CA norm is close to the projected current account.
• A real depreciation of 1% is needed to close the gap between the actual and norm current account in 2015.

Conclusion

• The analysis indicates a loss of external competitiveness in Armenia in recent years.
• The real exchange rate has been overvalued, with estimates ranging from 7–11% overvaluation in 2009.
• The paper provides an overview of methodologies applicable to transition economies for assessing the equilibrium exchange rate.
• The results are robust but sensitive to assumptions and policy changes, highlighting the need for further research and policy adjustments.