2025年世界预览-在动荡的海洋和崛起的中国_制药业增长稳定_31页_18mb

World Preview 2025 Summary

Core Content

The World Preview 2025 report by Evaluate highlights the evolving dynamics of the global biopharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the continued growth of prescription drug sales, the rise of GLP-1 agonists, the impact of patent expirations, and the growing influence of China on Western biopharma innovation and dealmaking.

Main Trends and Key Insights

1. Prescription Drug Sales and Growth

• Global prescription drug sales are projected to exceed $1.75 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7%.
• Obesity drugs are leading the growth, with an average annual growth rate of 20% between 2024 and 2030.
• GLP-1 agonists are expected to make up nearly 9% of all prescription drug sales in 2030.
• Tirzepatide (sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound) is forecast to reach $62 billion in sales, surpassing the peak of Humira (the former top-selling drug) and doubling Keytruda's 2024 sales.

2. Patent Expirations and Sales Risk

• Over $300 billion in potential lost sales due to patent expirations is expected over the next five years.
• Merck is most at risk due to Keytruda's 2028 expiry, with $30 billion in cumulative sales-at-risk.
• AbbVie, J&J, and Roche also face over $30 billion in sales risk by 2030.
• The top 25 Pharma firms will see an average of $24 billion in cumulative sales-at-risk by the end of the decade.

3. R&D Efficiency and Budget Constraints

• Total biopharma R&D spend reached $289 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2030.
• R&D budgets are flat or negative in real terms, reflecting a slowing of spending after a 7.7% CAGR from 2016 to 2024.
• Biologics now account for over 51% of prescription drug value in 2025 and are expected to rise to 57% by 2030.

4. The Rise of China in Biopharma

• China's bioscience sector is growing rapidly, with 40% of licensing deals involving Chinese assets expected in 2025, up from <5% in 2020.
• Chinese firms are producing first-in-class molecules that are cheaper and faster to develop.
• Bispecific antibodies and ADCs are particularly popular in China, with companies like 3SBio, LaNova Medicines, and Akeso leading the charge.

5. M&A Activity and Deal Dynamics

• M&A activity is slower in 2025 due to uncertainty around US drug pricing and tariffs.
• Big Pharma is more cautious, but biotechs are increasingly self-commercializing, especially in niche and rare disease areas.
• Notable M&A deals include:
  • Johnson & Johnson's $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies (CNS drugs)
  • Bristol Myers Squibb's $14 billion acquisition of Karuna (schizophrenia drug)
  • AbbVie's $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel (Parkinson's drug)
  • Merck KGaA's $3.9 billion acquisition of SpringWorks (oncology/rare disease)
  • Eli Lilly's $3.2 billion acquisition of Morphic Therapeutic (immunotherapy)

6. Biotech Commercialization and Innovation

• Smaller biotechs are increasingly self-commercializing in high-prevalence diseases and rare conditions.
• Examples include:
  • Verona Pharma's Ohtuvayre (COPD drug, projected to reach $1.4 billion in sales)
  • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' Rezdiffra (MASH treatment, projected to reach $1.6 billion in sales)
  • Insmed's brensocatib (bronchiectasis drug, projected to reach $3 billion in sales)

Conclusion

Despite policy uncertainty, FDA upheaval, and China's rising influence, the biopharmaceutical industry is adapting. The GLP-1 agonist category is driving growth, while biologics are becoming the mainstay of high-value drug development. R&D efficiency and cost control are critical as the sector faces patent cliffs and increased competition. China's rapid innovation and affordable development are reshaping the global landscape, prompting Western firms to delay patents and data. In this turbulent environment, the focus remains on meeting real unmet medical needs efficiently and effectively.