2025年世界展望_在动荡的海洋中_药品增长稳定和崛起的中国（英）_31页_18mb

报告摘要

World Preview 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Evaluate World Preview 2025 report provides an in-depth analysis of the global pharmaceutical industry's trajectory through 2030, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Despite rising global tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and the potential end of the US drug price premia, the industry is expected to grow steadily, with worldwide prescription drug sales reaching over $1.75 trillion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%.

Main Trends and Key Insights

1. GLP-1 Agonists Lead the Growth Engine

GLP-1-based drugs are projected to dominate the market, with tirzepatide (sold by Eli Lilly as Mounjaro and Zepbound) expected to reach $62 billion in sales by 2030, surpassing the peak of Humira (AbbVie's blockbuster).
These drugs will occupy five of the top ten best-sellers in 2030 and four of the top ten most promising pipeline candidates.
Eli Lilly is expected to be the top seller in 2030, with its oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron projected to reach $54.2 billion in NPV.

2. Immuno-Inflammatory Drugs and Oncology Continue to Grow

Dupixent (Sanofi/Regeneron) and Skyrizi (AbbVie) are among the fastest-growing drugs, with Dupixent forecast to exceed $25 billion in sales by 2030 and Skyrizi expected to be the second-largest drug in the same year.
Oncology is also a strong growth area, with ADCs and bi- and multi-specific antibodies gaining traction. Ivonescimab (Summit Therapeutics/Akeso), a bispecific VEGF-PD-1 antibody, is projected to reach $27 billion in sales by 2030, outperforming Keytruda in trials.

3. Patent Expiries Pose a Major Challenge

The industry faces over $300 billion in potential lost sales due to patent expiries over the next five years.
Merck is the most exposed company, with Keytruda expected to expire in 2028, potentially causing a 7% drop in sales that year.
Companies are increasingly focusing on multi-indication blockbusters to offset these losses, such as Skyrizi, which has approvals across multiple diseases.

4. China's Rise as a Biopharma Powerhouse

China is becoming a major player in biopharma, with 40% of licensing deals expected to involve Chinese assets by 2025, up from 3% in 2020.
Chinese firms are developing innovative, first-in-class molecules that are cheaper and faster to produce, challenging Western biotech and pharma.
Bispecific antibodies are a particular focus in China, with 3SBio, LaNova Medicines, and Akeso being key players.

5. R&D Budgets Slow Down

Total biopharma R&D spend in 2024 reached $289 billion, with a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2030.
R&D margins are expected to decline from 28.8% in 2023 to 20.7% by 2030.
Cost containment and patent cliffs are forcing companies to be more efficient, and the trend is likely to continue.

6. Biologics Overtake Small Molecules

Biologics now account for 51% of prescription drug value in 2025, and are projected to reach 57% by 2030.
While biologics are more expensive, small molecules remain important due to their convenience, lower cost, and easier manufacturing.

7. Biotech Companies Self-Commercialize

Smaller biotechs are increasingly taking on commercialization responsibilities, especially in niche and rare disease markets.
Examples include Verona Pharma's Ohtuvayre for COPD, Madrigal's Rezdiffra for MASH, and Insmed's brensocatib for bronchiectasis.

Conclusion

The pharmaceutical industry is navigating a complex landscape, marked by regulatory uncertainty, pricing pressures, and intense competition from China. Despite these challenges, GLP-1 agonists and biologics are driving growth, while biotech firms are stepping up to fill the void left by Big Pharma's patent expiry and M&A slowdown. The report underscores the importance of innovation, efficiency, and addressing real medical needs in this evolving sector.