2024年世界人口展望-结果摘要（英）-联合国-2024-69页_5mb

World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

Key Findings:

1. Global Population Trends

• Global population is projected to peak around 10.3 billion in the mid-21st century, a 6% reduction from the previous UN estimate, reflecting lower-than-expected fertility rates, especially in China and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.
• The likelihood of the peak occurring within the current century is high (80%), compared to 30% a decade ago. By the end of the century, the population is expected to decline gradually and return to approximately 10.2 billion (still 6% lower than ten years prior).
• Contrary trends include positive gains in countries like Albania, Georgia, and the European Union, but global aging remains a central challenge.

2. Fertility Decline and Age Structure

• Global fertility rates have decreased significantly (2.25 births per woman in 2024, down from 3.31 in 1990), with nearly half of all countries below the replacement level (2.1 births). Ultra-low fertility (<1.4 births) affects 24 countries, and nearly no return to replacement level in these nations within the next 30 years.
• Early childbearing remains problematic in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 340,000 girls under 15 giving birth in 2024. Youthful populations (notably in Sub-Saharan Africa) will drive growth through 2054, while aging populations face decline or stabilization.

3. Life Expectancy and Mortality Improvements

• Global life expectancy increased from 79 years in 1995 to 73.3 years in 2024. By late 2050s, over half of global deaths will occur aged 80+.
• COVID-19 reversed prior gains in 2020–2021 before rebounds started post-2022. Child mortality remains high in developing nations, with 95% of such deaths occurring in 126 growing countries.

4. Migration and National Policies

• Immigration plays a key role in sustaining or increasing populations of affluent countries (e.g., USA, Canada), while emigration exacerbates declines in low-fertility nations like those in Europe and East Asia.
• Policies in peaking countries (e.g., Germany, Japan) can inform nations with still-growing populations, emphasizing labor participation and generational balance.

5. Ageing-Related Demographic Shifts

• By late 2070s, global populations aged 65+ will exceed children under 18. By mid-2030s, the proportion aged 80+ surpasses infants.
• Countries with already-peaked populations face accelerated aging, while those with growth must balance youthful advantages with sustainability challenges.

6. Geographical and Regional Variations

• Countries already peaked (63 nations, 28% of global population) or nearing peak (48 nations, 10%) face declines or stabilizations after 2054. Rapid growth continues in Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Pakistan, Nigeria), which alone contributes 79% of global population growth.

Policy Recommendations:

• Advance gender equality to support fertility choices; implement family-friendly policies to enhance childbearing later in life; and distribute migration strategies effectively. Addressing sustainability requires integrated policies for aging societies and rapid-growth nations alike.

Conclusion:
World Population Prospects 2024 highlights that populations will eventually peak by the late 21st century, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to decline. National demographic patterns differ significantly by region, age, and migration status. Long-term planning must address aging, fertility trends, migration, and global health for sustainable development.